Corn
Price action: December corn rose 3 cents to $4.45 1/2, near mid-range and for the week up 4 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market saw some short covering and perceived bargain buying today. However, gains in the grain markets have been limited by a surging U.S. dollar index that hit another 1.5-year high today.
Bulls got some support today as USDA this morning reported daily U.S. corn sales of 303,000 MT to Mexico. Of the total, 272,820 MT is for delivery during 2026-27 and 30,480 MT during 2027-28. The agency also reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 2.88 MMT during the week ended Nov. 5, a marketing-year high. Net sales were up noticeably from the previous week and four-week average and were within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 2.0 to 3.0 MMT.
Brazil’s Conab left its 2026-27 corn production forecast unchanged from October at 148 MMT, but cut exports to 43 MMT, down 3 MMT from its previous estimate.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said Brazil crop planting will be slowed by rain during the next two weeks across the country, with some opportunities for farming activity during the drier periods while rain into Saturday should be poorly organized enough for fieldwork to advance in many areas. Many areas from Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul to central and northern Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Espirito Santo remain in need of rain to improve conditions for summer crop development and will benefit from regular rain through the next two weeks. Argentina will see a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks and fieldwork will be slowed at times. However, breaks between rounds of rain should allow farming activity to advance well overall. Nearly all of the country will be left with favorable soil moisture to support crop development by Monday with favorable conditions expected to continue into at least late this month.
90-day outlook: With the U.S. corn harvest in the final stages, attention of grain traders turns from U.S. supplies to export demand in the coming months. Demand for U.S. corn abroad has been decent in recent weeks. The extension of a trade truce with China was a positive sign ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting in Shenzen on November 18-19, though the fallout from former Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s affair with an alleged Chinese spy could cause negotiations to derail around trade of semiconductors used for AI. The South American growing season and weather patterns there will also move closer to the front burner of the corn futures market for the next few months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 12 1/2 cents to $12.31 1/2, near mid-range, hit a two-week high and for the week up 37 3/4 cents. December soybean meal rose $4.40 to $329.80, nearer the daily high, hit a two-week high and for the week up $10.60. December bean oil rose 35 points to 63.77 cents, near mid-range and for the week up 151 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean complex futures markets today saw short covering and technical buying featured as price action this week negated a price downtrend on the daily bar chart for beans and meal. A strong U.S. dollar index that today surged to a 1.5-year high did limit the upside in the soy complex futures. U.S. soybean harvest is close to wrapping up for the season, to suggest waning commercial hedge selling pressure on soybeans.
USDA this morning reported daily sales of 134,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China, 120,000 MT to Vietnam and 100,000 MT to unknown destinations during the 2026-27. The agency also reported weekly soybean export sales totaled 1.159 MMT during the week ended Nov. 5, down 21% from the previous week and 38% from the four week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 850,000 MT to 2.0 MMT.
Brazil’s Conab left its 2026-27 soybean forecast unchanged from its October estimate at 181.6 MMT. If realized, it would be up 0.7% from the previous season.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said timely rainfall will occur in many Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay soybean regions as well as in Bolivia during the next two weeks. The rain intensity will vary greatly and some areas will still have need for greater moisture, but crop development should advance relatively well. Uruguay will be drier than usual for a while.
90-day outlook: Weather and growing conditions in South American soybean regions will move close to the front burner in the coming months, as trader focus shifts from U.S. supplies to South American supplies, as well as export demand for U.S. soybeans—especially from China.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 9 cents to $5.93 1/4, near mid-range and hit a four-month low early on. For the week, December SRW was up 2 cents. December HRW wheat gained 6 1/2 cents to $6.28 3/4, near mid-range, hit a four-month low early on, and for the week down 3 3/4 cents. December spring wheat futures rose 4 cents to $6.26 3/4, near mid-range and for the week were up 10 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets have been working to stabilize prices but have seen fleeting success. A strong U.S. dollar index that today surged to a 1.5-year high did limit the upside in wheat futures today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 182,800 MT during the week ended Nov. 5, a marketing year low. Net sales were down 66% from the previous week and 62% from the four-week average. Net sales were short of analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 350,000 to 650,000 MT.
Brazil’s Conab cut its estimate for the 2026 wheat crop to 5.26 MMT earlier today, down from 5.73 MMT in October. If realized, it would be down 33.2% from the previous season. Meantime, Ukraine’s sowing area could be reduced by 6.3 million hectares (15.6 million acres) next spring due to difficulties with exports, according to its agriculture minister Taras Vysotskyi earlier today. Russia’s seaborne exports fell to 2.8 MMT in October, down 55.8% on the year, as shipments through southern ports were brought to a standstill by drone attacks, according to shipping data.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, winter crops will continue establishing in a mostly favorable environment. Some welcome and needed moisture will occur Friday into Saturday and again Nov. 20-22. Colder weather in the northeast through the weekend and across much of the region Nov. 21-25 will slow winter crop development rates. In the Northern Plains, dry conditions in the next few days will be ideal for late-season field work, with wetter conditions next week being beneficial for soil moisture in parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. More precipitation will be needed in these areas to improve soil moisture and drought conditions.
90-day outlook: Focus in coming weeks will remain on the amount of grain being shipped out of the Black Sea region and any progress on a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S.-mediated peace talks that took place at midweek proved unfruitful, with strikes occurring on Russian ports in the Baltic Sea shortly after talks concluded. Markets remained unmoved, though, and continued to trade in a sideways to lower pattern rather than add any war premium.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 11 points to 78.78 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week down 33 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market paused for most of this week. Cotton traders will be looking to the grain futures markets for price direction in the near term.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. cotton export sales of 157,300 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027 were down 43 percent from the previous week and down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Vietnam (56,100 RB), Turkey (26,400 RB) and Mexico (24,900 RB). Total net sales of 30,800 RB for 2027/2028 were for Malaysia. Exports of 171,400 RB were up 24 percent from the previous week and up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (64,600 RB), Bangladesh (19,700 RB), Pakistan (17,600 RB), Mexico (14,300 RB), and China (10,400 RB).
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said cotton-harvest weather remains mostly good in the Delta and southeastern states. Recent rain in southern Texas began to improve soil moisture for spring planting but much more was needed. West Texas also benefited from some rain earlier this season and more is needed but until the harvest is complete it might be best for dry conditions to prevail. Coming rain to California and Arizona may lift topsoil moisture for a few cotton areas. Meantime, India and Pakistan harvesting is progressing well. Late season crops in the south are in varying conditions. China’s harvest should be winding down if it is not already complete. Australia has experienced better-than-expected rain for an El Nino event. The heart of New South Wales is quite dry and needs some moisture in unirrigated fields.
90-day outlook: The approaching holiday season and better demand for apparel may offer some better support to cotton futures. However, the recent downdraft in the U.S. stock market likely spooked many consumers. Sustained selling pressure in the stock market into the end of the year would very likely dent holiday apparel demand. Recent USDA WASDE data points to production declines in key regions for 2026/27, with consumption holding up better. This has led to projections of lower global ending stocks and a potential shift toward deficit after surplus years.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.