Corn
Price action: March corn rose 4 1/2 cents to $4.24 3/4 and near mid-range. For the week, December corn was still down 21 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures bulls are working to stabilize prices following Monday’s surprising plunge. Today’s technically bullish weekly high close in March corn, mostly on short covering, gives the bulls a bit of confidence that a near-term price bottom was forged this week. However, bulls will have to show more power next week to better suggest such.
Strong export demand for U.S. corn continues to surface. USDA today reported daily U.S. corn sales of 120,000 MT of corn to Japan and 298,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2025-26.
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. World Weather Inc. today said most crops in Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rounds of rain during the next two weeks that will maintain favorable soil moisture for crop development while fieldwork is slowed at times. The driest areas in northeastern Brazil will see little rain through Saturday and stress to crops may increase in eastern Bahia where soil moisture is mostly short before regular rounds of showers Sunday into next week induce some improvements in soil and crop conditions. Southern Brazil and Paraguay will see the least rain overall during the next two weeks, but with some rain expected and favorable soil moisture in place today, crop development should occur in a mostly favorable environment through the period. In Argentina, the driest areas in southern regions will see little rain through Tuesday and stress to crops should increase in areas that missed out on significant rain this week while rapid losses of soil moisture elsewhere in the region leave southern Argentina in need of rain to prevent quick increases in crop stress. Beneficial showers will occur Wednesday into next Friday in western and southern Argentina where few locations will see enough rain to induce lasting increases in soil moisture while many areas receive enough rain to slow drying rates and by crops more time before greater stress evolves. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for Jan. 24-26 and this rain will be critical in halting decline in crop conditions with the rain not likely great enough to induce more than temporary increases in soil moisture, leaving most areas in need of follow-up rain soon. Favorable soil moisture in place today in central and northern Argentina and occasional rain during the next two weeks should maintain mostly favorable conditions for crop development through the period.
90-day outlook: USDA’s production peg on Monday, which included both record harvested acres of 91.3 million acres and a record yield of 186.5 bu. per acre, have depressed the corn market bulls and corn producers looking toward the 2026-27 crop year that could present another year of hefty U.S. corn acres. Demand continues to be the bright spot for corn, as U.S. export business sits at unprecedented levels along with domestic ethanol production. Focus is starting to shift toward Brazil’s safrinha plantings. The late-March planting intentions report from USDA will be one of the biggest data points of the year for the grain markets.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 4 3/4 cents to $10.57 3/4 near the daily high and for the week were down 4 3/4 cents. March soybean meal fell to a nearly three-month low early on today, before seeing a mild recovery and closed up 80 cents at $290.00, near the daily high and on the week down $13.70. March bean oil fell 36 points to 52.61 cents, near mid-range and hit a four-month high early on. For the week, March bean oil was up 292 points.
5-day outlook: Soybean futures bulls had a decent week and recovered from Monday’s solid losses. Soybean oil saw a very good trading week on hopes for better demand for biofuels. However, soybean meal was the laggard and that’s a bearish omen for soybeans in the near term. The existing price downtrend in soybean meal needs to be broken to provide the soybean market a chance to sustain a price uptrend.
Brazil is expected to produce 182.2 MMT of soybeans in 2025-26, according to Agroconsult. If realized, it would be a 5.9% increase over last year’s crop.
30-day outlook: Bean traders are closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today said some rain in La Pampa and western and southern Buenos Aires recently was welcome and brought temporary relief to dryness. Additional rain must fall throughout southern Argentina to stop crop stress and the potential decline in yield. Some additional showers are possible this weekend and again during mid-week next week, although resulting rainfall should be restricted. All other Argentina crops are in good condition with timely rain to continue. Brazil crops are rated well and should continue performing favorably because of a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks. A few drier pockets are unlikely to have a big impact on production potential. The northeastern states will be most closely monitored for dryness later this month.
90-day outlook: China continues to purchase U.S. soybeans, advancing closer to the agreed-upon 12 million MT figure. However, U.S. saber rattling and U.S. coziness with Taiwan are upsetting to China. The soybean and entire grain futures markets complex needs the U.S.-China trade truce to hold up for the markets to have a better chance of sustaining price uptrends in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat rose 7 1/2 cents to $5.18, nearer the session high and for the week up 3/4 cent. March HRW wheat gained 10 cents to $5.27 1/4, near the daily high and on the week down 3 cents. March spring wheat futures rose 2 1/2 cents to $5.65, near mid-range. For the week spring wheat was down 2 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets continue to chop in a sideways trading range at lower levels. Bulls are hoping this is “basing” action that will soon kick off a price uptrend. There is very strong longer-term technical support at the $5.00 level in SRW and HRW that could be a price floor in those markets.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said colder temperatures over the coming week will add some winter hardiness to winter crops in the U.S. Midwest and hard red winter wheat production areas. Single digit Fahrenheit low temperatures and no snow should not be a problem for crops in the north with today and again next week coldest. Bitter cold in western Russia and northeastern Europe will have no negative impact on winter crops because of significant snow cover. Drought in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria has been eased and will continue to be eased. Central and southern Tunisia and interior northeastern Algeria have been driest and would benefit most from precipitation. France has seen some improved topsoil moisture as well and more precipitation is needed to end long term drought. Some of that moisture will be coming in the next week to ten days. Precipitation and/or soil moisture in most other winter crop areas around the world are rated favorably, although timely spring rainfall will be imperative for eastern China, France, eastern Spain, the U.S. central and southern Plains and across Canada’s Prairies when spring arrives.
90-day outlook: Hefty global supplies and mostly favorable weather conditions around the world wheat regions have kept wheat futures prices squelched. It’s likely the wheat futures markets will be significantly influenced by what the corn futures market does during the next several weeks. The all-important late-March USDA planting intentions report will provide grain traders more definitive crop acres numbers.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures fell 5 points to 64.66 cents, near mid-range and for the week up 25 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market bulls faded this week and a price uptrend on the daily chart for March futures is now in jeopardy. Next week, cotton traders will look to the crude oil market for daily price guidance. Crude hit a 4.5-month high on Wednesday but has since backed way off. U.S. stock indexes that are still near or not far below their record highs are also positive outside markets for the natural fiber.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said precipitation is needed in most of Texas and from Florida and southeastern Alabama to the Carolinas and Virginia. Additional moisture would also be good for Arizona and southern California, but precipitation may be restricted for a while in the next 10 days. Late season cotton in southern India continues to fill, mature and be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit greatly from rain especially in western unirrigated areas where dryness is still a concern. Irrigated crops should be performing well as are some of the dryland crops produced in the east. Not much change in weather or crop conditions is likely for a while. Production is expected to be reduced by a cut in area planted and by poor rainfall in dryland production areas of the west. Argentina planting conditions were not ideal this season; though, recent weather has improved much of the crop. Timely rainfall and warm temperatures should dominate the next 10 days.
90-day outlook: U.S.-China trade relations still see the trade truce agreed upon last fall still in effect. However, recent U.S. saber-rattling and the recent U.S. arms sales to Taiwan did not sit well with China. Weekly U.S. cotton export sales need to improved in the coming months, including to China, for the cotton market bulls to expect sustainable price uptrends to occur.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.