Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 7 1/4 cents to $4.11 3/4, near the daily low and hit a contract low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw more technical selling kick in. Continued very good overall corn-growing weather in the U.S. at present remains the main bearish element in the corn futures market.
Today’s USDA WASDE report showed the agency increase old-crop corn imports by 3 million bushels, cut ethanol use and lifted exports by the same amount (25 million bushels), ultimately leading to a net increase of 3 million bushels to ending stocks to 2.145 billion bushels, 8 million bu. above pre-report expectations. USDA’s 2026-27 corn outlook is virtually unchanged relative to last month. Fractionally higher beginning and ending stocks for 2026-27 reflect changes to the old-crop balance sheet. The 2026-27 season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.40 per bushel.
USDA also this morning reported 1.04 MMT of U.S. corn export sales for the week ending June 4. That is up 13% from the previous week, but down 15% from the four-week average.
Conab lowered its estimate for the Brazilian safrinha corn crop production to 107.87 MMT, down from 108.45 MMT previously.
World Weather Inc. today most of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states are going to see frequent showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with southern crop areas still getting rain next week. A drier bias is likely in the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Cooling this weekend and next week in the Midwest and Plains may slow crop development and drying rates for a little while. Safrinha corn areas of Brazil will receive waves of rain late this week into early next week slowing crop maturation and harvest progress. The moisture might be good for the more immature crops in the south.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.20 and then at this week’s high of $4.25 3/4. First support is seen at $4.05 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 8 cents to $11.15, nearer the daily low. July soybean meal fell $0.20 to $301.70, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil fell 88 points to 74.45 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw selling from the chart-based speculators resume today. Weather in the Midwest still leans firmly price-bearish for the soy complex at present. Gains in the U.S. dollar index today, which hit a 2.5-month high, were also negative for the soy complex.
USDA left its 2025-26 U.S. soybean carryover unchanged from May and just 1 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA cut old-crop exports by 20 million bushels and increased crush use by the same amount. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2025-26 at $10.40, unchanged from May.
USDA also reported net export sales of 211,300 MT for U.S. soybeans, down 25% from last week and down 18% from the four-week average. The agency also reported export sales of 395,700 MT of soybean meal and 800 MT of soybean oil for the week.
Conab raised its estimate for Brazilian soybean production to 180.25 MMT, up slightly from 180.1 MMT last month.
World Weather Inc. today said “very high yield potentials for summer crops will remain in place through the next two weeks” as regular rain in the much of the Midwest will leave soil moisture favorable in nearly all areas while a lack of significant heat is expected through at least the next week and most areas will be colder than usual this weekend into early next week. As long as timely rain falls as advertised June 19-21 most areas will be left with adequate soil moisture to support summer crop development through the end of the month and likely longer.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily chart. However, the market is still short-term oversold and overdue for a corrective bounce. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $11.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.29 3/4 and then at $11.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.10 1/4 and then at $11.00.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $309.20 and then at $315.00. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at the February low of $297.80.
Bean oil bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 78.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 72.86 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 3/4 cent to $5.86 3/4, near mid-range. July HRW gained 4 1/4 cents to $6.34 3/4, near mid-range. September spring wheat futures rose 2 cents to $6.45 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: USDA left its 2025-26 wheat balance sheet unchanged from the prior month but did increase its average farm price a nickel to $5.05. The U.S. wheat outlook for 2026-27 projects smaller supplies and, with no other changes to the balance sheet, lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on decreased output as all wheat production is projected at 1,543 million bushels, down 18 million from last month largely on smaller hard red winter wheat production. The all-wheat yield is down 0.5 bushels per acre to 47.0 bushels. Exports are unchanged at 775 million bushels, down 15 percent from the prior year. Projected U.S. ending stocks are reduced 18 million bushels to 744 million, 20 million bushels below the average trade estimate. The 2026-27 season average farm price is projected $0.50 per bushel lower this month, to $6.00, based on expectations of futures and cash prices for the marketing year.
USDA also reported net export sales of 666,300 MT of U.S. wheat for the 2026/27 marketing year, which began on June 1. 298,600 MT were carried over from the 2025/26 marketing year.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, less frequent and less significant rain is expected in wheat areas for a little while this weekend into early next week, although totally dry conditions is unlikely. The less frequent precipitation should improve drying rates for some of the wetter areas, reducing the risk of wheat quality issues for a while. Returning thunderstorms in the northern half of the production region June 18-26 will restore “some” concern over wheat quality, although the odds disfavor a serious threat. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun, alongside generally cooler biased temperatures this week, will aid in maintaining soil conditions and supporting crop development across the crop region.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.00 1/4 and then at $6.10 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.74 3/4 and then at $5.60.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.45 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at $6.25 and then at last week’s low of $6.14 and then at $6.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 139 points to 72.49 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a corrective bounce today following recent selling pressure. USDA’s WASDE report today showed the U.S. 2025-26 cotton carryover estimate down 200,000 bales from last month. USDA made no change to the supply-side of the cotton balance sheet. It increased estimated exports 200,000 bales (to 12.2 million) and cut domestic use 50,000 bales (to 1.55 million), accounting for the cut to ending stocks. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 at 63 cents, unchanged from May.
The 2026-27 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows reduced beginning and ending stocks, due to a 200,000-bale decrease from the previous year. Production, consumption, and trade forecasts are unchanged this month, and the projected season-average price remains at 73 cents per pound. As a result, ending stocks are now forecast at 4.20 million bales, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 31 percent. The 2025/26 season-average farm price remains estimated at 63 cents per pound.
USDA today also reported weekly U.S. cotton export sales totaling 207,000 RB for 2025/2026 were up 12 percent from the previous week and up 60 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (83,300 RB), Pakistan (57,300 RB) and India (35,300 RB). Net sales of 298,700 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Vietnam (180,000 RB), Nicaragua (39,700 RB) and Turkey (28,600 RB). Exports of 300,100 RB were up 12 percent from the previous week and up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (109,200 RB), Pakistan (49,400 RB) and India (35,800 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas needs a more significant drink of water and some of that may materialize in the Saturday through Monday period. Other cotton areas in Texas and Oklahoma are doing better with rainfall than west Texas, but all areas would still benefit from some timely rain. The Delta continues to have favorable soil moisture while the southeastern production areas are doing okay but will need rain soon as well.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 73.86 cents and then at 75.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 70.92 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.