Corn
Price action: December corn futures rallied 6 cents to $4.27 and closed nearer session highs. That marked a 14 1/4 cent loss on the week.
5-day outlook: Corn futures surged on corrective strength today, largely driven by positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA reports. The June Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Report is historically the most volatile day of the year for corn futures. Price action is unbiased, with the long-term average split right at 50/50 for higher and lower closes. A Bloomberg poll shows anticipation for acres to come in at 95.407 million acres, just above March intentions at 95.326 million acres. We anticipate lower acreage following the wetness seen in the eastern Corn Belt, as we have already heard anecdotal reports of prevent plant taking place. Volatility is likely Monday even if the direction is hard to nail down. Given downtrodden prices, a bearish report is likely already somewhat priced in, so it would take a significant miss to fuel prices even lower.
30-day outlook: Monday brings the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report as well. A Bloomberg poll pegs stocks at 4.625 billion bushels as of June 1. That would be down from 4.997 million bushels a year ago. Our forecast was right below the trade average at 4.617 billion bushels. Feed & residual use is difficult to peg for the third quarter of the marketing year and USDA could use the feed & residual figure to help adjust the 2024 crop. We continue to be suspicious that the 2024 crop was larger than USDA thought, which could lead to a surprise in the stocks report. Monday’s report will likely have a lasting effect on the market, potentially bringing upon a summer rally, as prices historically post a bottom this time of the year.
90-day outlook: We are entering the most common period for a summer rally. The volatility stemming from Monday’s report plays a large role in that, as a low is typically made some time in the latter portion of June. We will advise on a potential rally beginning, which would use yesterday’s for-the-move low close as a benchmark. As it stands, the forecast points to minimal crop pressure across the Corn Belt. While some areas have experienced excessive rains, the crop looks great for the most part. That hinders the potential for a weather market, but the key growing period remains ahead of us. Some dryness is anticipated from next Tuesday on to July 11, but periodic showers should keep soil moisture at manageable levels.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose a nickel to $10.27 3/4, but still plummeted 40 1/4 cents on the week, while November futures rose 8 1/4 cents to $10.24 3/4, marking a 36-cent weekly loss. August meal futures rose 40 cents to $275.60 but marked at $12.60 loss on the week. August soyoil fell 8 points to 52.48 cents and down 212 points week-over week.
5-day outlook: July soybean futures marked 63-cent selloff from last Friday’s high to this week’s low, though the week ended with a modest upside correction as traders position ahead of USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Reports on Monday. On average, analysts are expecting June 1 stocks of 980 million bu., which would be down from 930 million bu. From March but up 1%. from year-ago.
Meanwhile, pre-report polls indicate analysts expect USDA to report 83.655 million soybean acres, which would be up slightly from the March Prospective Planting figure of 83.495 million acres, but down nearly 4% from year-ago. There is certainly potential for a wider swing outside of the 2.8 million-acre range within analysts’ estimates as soybean prices remained rather stable as the planting season progressed relative to a steady decline in corn futures. This combined with subpar weather in several areas of the eastern and lower Midwest could certainly lead to a greater-than-expected soybean acreage figure, though prevented plant acres will be the looming unknown until at least August, leaving ambiguity around Monday’s figures.
30-day outlook: Monday’s data will undoubtedly provide fodder for traders over the next month, though the fast approaching July 9 tariff deadline could either exacerbate or diminish the data given potential trade deals with other countries, or lack thereof. There have been mixed reports of countries balking at recent progress, while others are indicative that several deals are nearing completion. However, without concrete evidence of such, a cautious tone will likely prevail.
90-day outlook: Soymeal demand and exports will be key over the longer-term. While the recent biomass biodiesel mandate was a boon for soyoil, soymeal futures have plummeted amid concerns of growing meal supplies as a result of ramped up crush. Meanwhile, final soybean acreage and production will also be of importance, as will the direction of the U.S. dollar relative to the Brazilian Real.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat futures rose 3 3/4 cents to $5.24 3/4 and near mid-range, but on the week lost 43 cents. July HRW wheat futures dipped 2 1/4 cents to $5.16 and hit a six-week low. On the week, July HRW fell 47 1/4 cents. Spring wheat futures closed 2 1/2 cents higher at $6.28, marking a weekly loss of 28 3/4 cents.
5-day forecast: Most winter wheat futures contracts saw tepid short covering to end the week after steep price downdrafts the first four days of the trading week. Weather still leans price-bearish heading into trading next week. World Weather Inc. today said ”wheat conditions in North America are either fair or very good. Recent rain improved crops from northern Montana through Canada’s Prairies, although some of the improvement came a little too late. Harvest conditions in the southern U.S. Plains have improved recently, but some rain is predicted for next week that may slow crop maturation and harvest progress.” Recent drier and warmer Midwest weather “was great for filling and maturing soft red wheat,” said World Weather. Meantime, drying in Europe will be good for wheat filling, maturation and harvesting, said the forecaster. There is concern over the condition of winter and spring crops in other areas of Russia due to frequent rain recently and that which is coming. Most crops will remain in favorable condition; although some drying in winter crop areas would help protect grain quality.
Wheat traders are gearing up for Monday’s updated U.S. planted acreage report and the quarterly grain stocks report. These reports are considered to be among the most important USDA reports of the year. A Reuters survey of analysts showed they expect a modest rise in U.S. wheat stocks from the same time last year. Wheat traders will likely take direction from the corn market following Monday’s USDA data and in the near term.
30-day outlook: Keener risk appetite in the general marketplace late this week helped out the grain market bulls. If the Middle East continues to see de-escalated tensions in the coming weeks, such would be a bullish element for the wheat market that may at least keep a floor under prices. However, with the U.S. winter wheat harvest moving into higher gear, commercial hedge pressure in the coming weeks is likely to limit price rallies.
90-day outlook: U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said late this week that President Donald Trump is prepared to finalize a series of trade deals within the next two weeks. While he didn’t specify which countries would be part of this initial wave, Trump had previously said a “very big” trade deal could be signed soon. If the U.S. starts lining up trade deals with its major counterparts, including China, the grain markets would likely see upside price support, including wheat. The U.S. dollar index this week fell to a 3.5-year low, which is also a positive for the U.S. wheat market from a price-competitive perspective on the world trade markets. There are a few green shoots that there are better days ahead for the grain market bulls.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Advice: We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 40% of 2024-crop production to get to 75% sold in the cash market.
Price action: December cotton rose 52 points to 69.32 cents, marking a 262-point weekly gain.
5-day outlook: December cotton futures edged higher for the sixth straight session as bulls seemingly gained confidence as the U.S. dollar dove to the lowest level since February 2022. Moreover, delayed planting efforts may have traders leaning bullish towards USDA’s acreage data on Monday. However, a push into technically overbought territory could kick off next week with a pullback ahead of the report, due out at 11 a.m. CT. Nevertheless, look for acreage and crop ratings to drive price action next week.
30-day outlook: USDA reported cotton plantings had advanced to 92% complete as of June 22, up seven percentage points from last week but still three points behind average. Mississippi continued to lag by the widest margin, though nine of the top 15 production states remained behind average. Moreover, condition ratings were also quite tepid, with 47% of the crop rated “good” to “excellent,” down a point from last week and nine percentage points below the same period last year. The portion of the crop rated “poor” to “very poor” stood at 20%, up a point from the previous week and seven percentage points from the same week last year.
Weather will continue to be monitored as plantings wind down and the growing season advances. World Weather Inc. reports West Texas will see limited rainfall over the next seven days, with moisture needed in dryland areas of the south. However, field conditions in portions of the Delta are still too wet, though recent warm temps and restricted rain is helping to firm topsoil.
90-day outlook: Demand for cotton will prove the longer-term focus as the prospect of trade deals loom and, while lingering inflation and robust interest rates continue to crimp consumer demand. However, the recent downturn in the dollar could prove positive for exports, which could certainly be exacerbated given trade deals are achieved in the near future.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: NEW ADVICE -- Sell another 40% of 2024-crop production to get to 75% sold in the cash market. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: NEW ADVICE -- Sell another 40% of 2024-crop production to get to 75% sold. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.