Corn
Price action: September corn fell 16 3/4 cents to $4.03 1/2, marking a low-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures gapped lower overnight, and faced technical selling in tandem with soybeans and wheat futures. A firmer U.S. dollar also cast a shadow over commodities, along with mostly favorable weather across the Midwest as the growing season advances. Traders seemingly ignored USDA’s daily sales of 135,000 MT for delivery to Mexico, with 29,0000 MT slated for 2024-25 and 106,0000 MT for 2025-26. Export inspections were also notable, at 1.491 MMT (58.7 million bu.) for the week ended Jul 3, which was within the pre-report range of expectations from 1.1 MMT to 1.615 MMT.
World Weather Inc. maintains a favorable weather pattern is expected in the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states for a while. The Midwest is expected to see a lack of significant heat through at least, along with regular rounds of showers.
In center-south Brazil, farmers had harvested 28% of their 2025 safrinha corn crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was up 10 percentage points from the previous week but well below the 63% reported a year earlier. Harvest continues to lag behind in all states of the region, according to AgRural.
Technical analysis: September corn bears showed their strength today with a gap lower in overnight trade and a low-range close. Initial support now lies at last week’s low of $4.00 1/4, while initial resistance will serve at $4.07 ¼, then the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $4.10 3/4 to $4.23 3/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: August soybeans closed down 24 cents at $10.31 1/2, while August meal fell $5.20 to $272.20, each marking low-range closes. August soyoil fell 61 points to 53.94 cents, a near mid-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans gapped lower overnight and faced notable selling throughout the session. Ahead of the long weekend, traders were expecting positive news regarding trade deals, specifically with China, which failed to transpire. Meanwhile, the July 9 tariff deadline is just around the corner, making confirmed trade deals increasingly crucial over the next 48 hours.
President Trump has stated he will not extend the 90-day pause to tariffs that “expire” on Wednesday and will start sending letters to countries specifying the tariff rates they will have to pay, but the increased tariff rates will not be implemented until Aug. 1, leaving more time for some countries to negotiate. Without a deal, tariffs currently set at a 10% baseline will go back to the 20% to 49% set on April 2, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly export inspection of 389,364 MT (14.3 million bu.) for the week ended July 3, up 152,650 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of the pre-report range of expectations from 150,000 to 400,000 MT.
USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress & Condition Report following the close. Analysts are expecting
Technical analysis: August soybeans gapped lower overnight, with bears forging a low-range close below the 40-, 20-, 200-, 100- and 10-day moving averages, layered from $10.50 to $10.40 1/4, which will now serve as resistance. Initial support will serve at last week’s low of $10.16 3/4, which is backed by the psychological $10.00 level.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 8 cents to $5.70 1/4, nearer the session high. December HRW wheat fell 8 3/4 cents to $5.52, near mid-range and hit a seven-week low. December spring wheat futures fell 9 3/4 cents to $6.57.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets today fell victim to solid selling pressure in the corn and soybean futures markets amid very good growing conditions for those crops. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was a negative outside market for wheat futures.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 436,628 MT, down 39,953 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of expectations from 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, “harvesting will have to advance around showers and thunderstorms during the next couple of weeks. Concern over grain quality may rise in a few of the wetter areas, but the precipitation should be brief enough to limit the impact on grain quality.” Harvest progress may be slowed at times. In the Northern Plains, alternating periods of rain and sunshine are expected across much region over the next two weeks. There will be a tendency for net drying in Montana where some unirrigated crop stress is expected. The best distribution of rain and sunshine is likely in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota where crop development should advance aggressively. A boost in rain will be needed in parts of Montana especially the north.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop in 50% good to excellent conditions as of Sunday, compared to 48% last week. Winter wheat harvested is expected at 49% complete as of Sunday, compared to 37% at the same time last week. U.S. spring wheat condition is expected at 53% good to excellent–the same as last week.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained some momentum today. The next upside price objective for the SRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.77 3/4 and then at $5.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.63 1/2 and then at the June low of $5.56 3/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.38 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.59 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.73 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.45 3/4 and then at $5.38 1/2.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 57 points to 67.89 cents, forging a mid-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures gapped lower overnight, along with the grain and soy complexes, but was able to extend from the daily low as the session progressed. A solid rebound in crude oil was certainly helpful, though fading equities, a firmer U.S. dollar and technical resistance limited buyer interest.
President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on goods from Japan and South Korea set a sour tone across the marketplace, with 12 other countries reported to also receive letters today.. However, it was also reported the President will sign an executive order today delaying the July 9 tariff deadline to Aug. 1.
World Weather Inc. notes West Texas cotton needs warmer temps and additional rainfall to induce ideal cotton development, with most of the flooding in central Texas missing cotton areas. The Texas Blacklands should see a favorable mix of weather over the next ten days along with the Delta and southeastern states. Local flooding from Tropical Depression Chantal is unlikely to cause any serious problems for cotton in the Carolinas or Virginia.
USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress & Condition Report following the close.
Technical analysis: December cotton ended well off the session low after a gapping lower in overnight trade. Initial resistance will now serve at the 20-, 40- and 10-day moving averages, layered from 67.95 cents to 68.28 cents. Meanwhile, initial support will serve at 67.79 cents, then at 67.36 cents and the June 23 low of 66.27 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.