Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 1 1/2 cents to $4.43 1/2, mid-range and hit a six-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw mild selling pressure for much of the session, tied to reports coming out of China news outlets that the U.S. is dragging its feet on planning for the April summit meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. Disappointing weekly export sales of U.S. corn also limited buying interest in futures. However, a late-session recovery pushed prices back above unchanged.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. corn sales of 178,000 MT to Japan, with 154,000 MT for 2026-27 and 24,000 MT for 2027-28. The agency also reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 685,800 MT during the week ended Feb. 19. Net sales were down 53% from the previous week and down 56% from the four-week average. Net sales were short of the pre-report range of 900,000 MT to 1.8 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said weather patterns over the next couple of weeks will be well mixed to support fieldwork, crop maturation and ongoing crop development. There will be some net drying in southern Brazil for a while, but as long as rain resumes later in the season before the monsoon ends all will be good. Safrinha planting may be slowed in the north for a while this week while it will accelerate again in the first week of March. Dryness in southern Safrinha crop areas will be closely monitored, but the environment will be good for quick field progress. Meantime, Argentina’s recent rain has helped reduce dryness and improve crop conditions. Some of the stressful conditions this summer may have shaved down yield potentials, but no disaster occurred and the smaller crop will easily be countered by the big crop in Brazil.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.56 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.26 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.45 3/4 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.37 1/4 and then at $4.31 3/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 1 1/2 cents to $11.63 1/2, nearer the daily high and hit a three-month high early on. May soybean meal fell 90 cents to $318.70, nearer the daily high and hit a 2.5-month high early on. May soybean oil rose 109 points to 61.76, near the daily high and hit another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures market today saw some selling pressure most of the day due in part to news reports out of China that Chinese officials are irked that U.S. officials are not planning enough for the summit between Presidents Trump and Xi in April. Profit taking from recent gains was also featured. However, prices staged a comeback in late trading to end with only slight losses. Soybean oil futures continue to surge on notions of better biodiesel blending volumes coming to market this year. Spreaders were again featured buying bean oil and selling meal today.
The Trump administration has settled on a plan that would require big oil refineries to make up at least half of the biofuel blending volumes obligations waived in recent years under the Small Refinery Exemption program, according to three sources familiar with the discussions.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 407,100 MT during the week ended Feb. 19. Net sales were down 49% from the previous week and 30% from the four-week average. Net sales were just within the pre-report range of 400,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
Brazil may increase soybean exports to China in 2026 amid lower Argentine shipments despite stronger competition from U.S. farmers, according to Reuters.
World Weather Inc. today said rain during the next 10 days will favor northern Brazil, where soil moisture will be left favorable for crop development. Central and especially southern Brazil and Paraguay will see much less rain than northern Brazil through Mar. 7 and fieldwork should advance well before a timely round of rain occurs Mar. 8-12. In Argentina, little rain is expected through early next week in the driest areas in north-central and eastern regions, where stress to crops is likely to increase while occasional rain and favorable soil moisture in place today in most of the remainder of Argentina allows most crops to develop in a favorable environment. A close watch will be made on nearly widespread rain advertised for Wednesday into Friday of next week and additional rain in northern Argentina Mar. 7-8.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.77 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.65 and then at today’s high of $11.72 3/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.43 and then at $11.36 1/2.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $325.50 and then at $330.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $314.40 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is short-term overbought and due for a corrective pullback. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 63.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 58.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 61.99 cents and then at 62.50 cents. First support is seen at 60.00 cents and then at 59.65 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 4 3/4 cents to $5.74 1/2, near the daily high. May HRW lost 2 cents to $5.62 1/4, near mid-range. May spring wheat futures rose 1 3/4 cents to $5.98 3/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw mixed trade. SRW was boosted by some perceived bargain buying, while HRW was pressured by some better precipitation chances next week in U.S. HRW country.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat sales totaled 243,000 MT during the week ended Feb. 19, down 16% from the previous week and down 43% from the four-week average. Net sales were short of the expected pre-report range of 250,000 to 500,000 MT.
Ukraine’s grain deliveries to its Black Sea ports for export have risen 2% so far in February compared with January, but volumes remain below February 2025 levels, state railway Ukrazaliznytsia said on Thursday.
World Weather Inc. today said rain is needed in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and in Canada’s Prairies, although there is plenty of time for this to take place before the growing season gets under way in Canada. The U.S. need for moisture should steadily rise in March especially with warmer-than-usual weather anticipated for much of the coming two weeks in the high Plains region. Some rain will fall next week and into the following weekend, with western areas seeing the lightest amounts. Temperatures have been bouncing around significantly in the U.S. Plains recently, limiting new crop development especially in the driest areas. Damaged wheat in the U.S. Plains needs a mild to cool spring and frequent precipitation for successful new tillering to take place. For now, those conditions seem unlikely and a warm and dry bias could further harm some of the damaged crop especially if the warm and dry conditions prevail into April.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. However, the HRW bulls need to show fresh power soon. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.35. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.75 3/4 and then at $5.80. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.63 1/2 and then at $5.58 3/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the February high of $5.90 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $5.70 1/2 and then at $5.80. First support is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.45 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton lost 81 points to 65.36 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term futures traders, after recent good gains. Liquidation from the weak-handed bulls was also featured today. Some keener risk aversion in the general marketplace also limited buying interest in cotton today.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. sales of upland cotton totaling 253,200 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were down 46 percent from the previous week and down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Bangladesh (70,700 RB), India (59,700 RB) and Pakistan (57,400 RB). Net sales of 29,700 RB for 2026/2027 were reported, including Malaysia (22,000 RB) and Vietnam (7,700 RB). Exports of 193,000 RB were up 12 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (74,200 RB), Pakistan (21,300 RB) and Turkey (17,300 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March and a dry bias will prevail for at least another 10 days. West Texas also needs rain and not much will fall for a while. California will fall back to a drier bias after some rain fell last week. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potentials later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into a part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical. Recent rain in Queensland, Australia was welcome and should have improved some crops in the region; however, some of the rain came a little late in the summer for the best improvement in production potentials. Sufficient rain in both New South Wales and Queensland in recent weeks should have improved short term crop development potential. Dry conditions will now prevail for a while.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the price uptrend alive. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the January high of 67.11 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.86 cents. First resistance is seen at 66.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 66.38 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 64.99 cents and then at 64.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.