Corn
Price action: December corn fell 5 cents to $4.62, near the daily low and hit a nine-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more technical selling today as the near-term chart posture remains bearish. U.S. corn harvest is progressing rapidly, which is prompting commercial hedge pressure on corn futures.
The U.S. corn crop was rated 56% good or excellent as of Sunday, USDA said, unchanged from the previous week and matching analyst expectations. Harvest was 44% complete, up from 33% a week earlier and a percentage point behind the average guess and lagging behind the five-year average of 52%. The Pro Farmer Crop Conditions Index (0 to 500 scale, 500 equals perfect) rose by a marginal 1.08 points.
Our crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonner, raised his Brazilian corn production estimate by 2 MMT to 140 MMT due to increased corn acreage and a good start to the first corn crop in southern Brazil. He maintained his Argentine corn production estimate of 60 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward.
France’s corn production is on track to halve this year to 7 MMT, after lower sowings and record heat and dry weather dampened production, according to farmer’s group AGPM.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable harvest weather is predicted in much of the U.S. this week. Any precipitation that occurs will be brief and light. Meantime, southern Brazil has benefited from recent drying but rain is expected to resume later this week, which may bring back some concern about too much moisture. Center-west and northeastern Brazil rainfall was limited during the weekend and the forecast is not favoring much volume in this week’s shower activity, which may leave a little concern about developing dryness.
Technical analysis: December corn sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.57 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.68 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $4.74. First support is seen at $4.60 and then at $4.57 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 5 1/4 cents to $12.48 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a seven-week low. December soybean meal lost $6.10 to $348.70, near the daily low and hit a two-week low. December soybean oil rose 4 points to 66.73 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets saw more technical selling featured today as prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts. Commercial hedge selling pressure is also stronger as U.S. soybean harvest is progressing rapidly.
Bulls were disappointed today that futures prices did not respond better to USDA reporting daily U.S. soybean sales of 612,000 MT to China during 2026-27. China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, brought in 11.88 million MT of soybeans in September, down 7.7% from the same month last year, Reuters reported. China imported 360,878 metric tons of U.S. soybeans in September, up from zero a year earlier. In the January-September period, soybean imports from the U.S. fell 34% from a year earlier to 11.06 million tons, while shipments from Brazil rose 3.4% to 65.84 million tons, the report said.
The U.S. soybean crop was 64% harvested, up from 46% last week, 2 points better than the average estimate and a point behind the five-year average of 65%. With more than 50% of the crop harvested, USDA has discontinued weekly condition ratings for soybeans.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his 2026-27 Brazil soybean estimate by 2 million tons to 182 MT, with a neutral bias, reflecting an “OK start” to planting and slightly larger soybean acreage than anticipated. Cordonnier said higher soybean prices over the last few months have encouraged an increase in plantings. He left his Argentine soybean production estimate unchanged at 54 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soybean harvesting will occur rapidly in most areas during the next two weeks around infrequent precipitation that will favor western and northern areas into early next week and likely southern areas Oct. 30-Nov. 2.
Technical analysis: November soybeans see a downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $12.65 and then at $12.77. First support is seen at $12.40 and then at $12.30.
Soybean meal futures are now starting to trend down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $344.20. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $354.80 and then at this week’s high of $360.00. First support is seen at $344.20 and then at $340.00.
Bean oil sees prices trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 70.08 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at 68.00 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 66.11 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 12 cents to $6.43 1/4, near the daily low and hit a nine-week low. December HRW lost 8 1/2 cents to $6.91, near the daily low and hit a three-month low. December spring wheat futures fell 7 3/4 cents to $6.62 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling today as prices are in firm downtrends on the daily bar charts.
USDA said the U.S. winter wheat crop was 63% planted, up from 51% a week ago and just below the average guess of 63%. The five-year average for this time of year is 69%.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, frost and freezes in wheat areas Saturday morning had no impact on the new crop. Soil temperatures were warm enough to continue emergence and establishment and with warmer temperatures this week that process should continue without interruption. The cold weather did end the summer crop growing season which should lead to faster crop maturation and harvest progress in areas that froze.Rain during the weekend will help to ensure favorable soil moisture for at least 65% of the region, but there may still be need for greater rain in some locations in the south. In the Northern Plains, warmer-biased weather will give way to cooler temperatures later this week into early next week. Precipitation will move in with the colder airmass, bringing rain and mixed precipitation to Montana and the Dakotas Friday into Saturday. Some snow may be possible in Montana, though any accumulations will melt by Saturday afternoon.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.66 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $6.81. First support is seen at $6.35 and then at $6.25.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at $7.00 and then at this week’s high of $7.10 1/2. First support is seen at $6.80 and then at $6.70
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 75 points to 80.88 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw some short covering and perceived bargain hunting today but are presently trapped in a sideways trading range. Higher U.S. stock index prices today did support some buying interest in cotton futures. Lower grain futures prices today did limit the upside in cotton.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop in 37% poor to very poor condition, 28% fair and 35% good to excellent condition. The crop was 41% harvested as of Sunday, with 85% bolls opening.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather most often into Friday that will allow for harvesting to advance before periods of wet weather Saturday into next Tuesday and a low confidence period of wet weather Oct. 30-Nov. 1 slows harvesting, causing quality declines and possibly some production cuts due to boll rot.A few light showers will occur in the Panhandle and northern parts of west Texas today with some light rain in western parts of western Texas Friday. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see infrequent rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks and the remaining cotton harvest will be slowed by the rain, while much of the cotton has likely already been harvested.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures have been trading sideways on the daily chart for two weeks. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 84.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the October low of 77.05 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 82.25 cents and then at 83.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 79.38 cents and then at 78.77 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.