Advice Alert: Wheat producers: Finish 2025-crop sales... Wheat prices have fallen under pressure over the past week as peace prospects in the Middle East have weighed on prices, negating persistent weakness in crop conditions in the U.S. We do not carry over old-crop stocks into the new-crop marketing year. We advise selling the remaining 10% of old-crop stocks to get to 100% sold. Production concerns remain in 2026-27 amid urea flow disruptions and a large drop in acreage, prompting patience on new-crop sales. You should already be 30% sold on expected 2026-crop production.
Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 5 cents to $4.52 1/2, near the daily low and hit a five-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw still more technical selling pressure today. Sharply lower crude oil futures prices this week have also worked to pressure corn futures. Solidly lower winter wheat futures prices today also spilled over into price pressure on corn futures.
Mostly good growing weather in the Midwest also favors the bears. USDA on Tuesday afternoon estimated the U.S. corn crop was 89% planted as of May 24, up 13 percentage points from the previous week and three points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence was estimated at 60%, two points ahead of average.
World Weather Inc. today said net drying is expected in a part of the U.S. Midwest over the coming week and temperatures will be warmer. Most of the change will be welcome, but there are parts of northern Illinois, southeastern Wisconsin, northwestern Indiana and southwestern Michigan that need a moisture boost. Weekend rain brought some relief to dryness in southeastern South Dakota and Minnesota, although more rain is needed. Meantime, southern Safrinha corn areas of Brazil have been trended drier recently. The change was welcome and a better mix of showers and sunshine should be forthcoming. Northern Safrinha crop areas are dry and would benefit from rain, although little is expected.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.70. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the April low of $4.48 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.59 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $4.63. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.52 3/4 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 3/4 cent to $11.85 1/4, near mid-range. July soybean meal rose $2.00 to $330.60, nearer the daily high. July soybean oil rose 90 points to 75.26 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets today saw corrective bounces from recent selling pressure. Lower crude oil futures prices today limited the upside in the soybean complex futures.
USDA on Tuesday afternoon estimated the U.S. soybean crop was 79% planted as of May 24, up 12 percentage points from the previous week and 11 points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence was estimated at 49%, 9 points ahead of average.
Weather in the Midwest favors the soybean bears at present. World Weather Inc. today said dry weather in the Midwest will be most common through the next two weeks and fieldwork should advance well around some infrequent rain, with planting likely to be completed soon in most areas. Soil moisture in place as well as a lack of significant heat through at least the next week to 10 days will allow germination, establishment, and development of summer crops to occur in a favorable environment. Soil moisture was not fully restored from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota and by the latter part of the first week of June the region will be in need of rain to maintain favorable crop conditions. Soil moisture in most of the remainder of the Midwest is high enough to support crop development deep into June without significant rain, but rain will be needed soon to ensure soil moisture remains favorable during potential periods of hot and dry weather later in the summer. There is some potential for heat to build in the Plains late in the first week of June before expanding into the western Corn Belt and a close watch on the period will be made.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart, but just barely. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.35. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $11.72 1/4. First resistance is seen at $12.00 and then at $12.12. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.79 3/4 and then at $11.72 1/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and a bullish pennant pattern has formed. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the May high of $342.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.80. First resistance comes in at $335.60 and then at $340.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $326.20 and then at $320.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out, however. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 76.99 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 72.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 76.32 cents and then at 76.99 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 73.88 cents and then at this week’s low of 72.99 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 13 cents to $6.22 1/2, near the daily low and hit a nearly three-week low. July HRW lost 6 1/2 cents to $6.69 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a nearly three-week low. September spring wheat futures fell 9 cents to $7.05 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more weak long liquidation and some fresh short selling from the shorter-term speculators as prices closed lower for the fifth straight trading session. Solid losses in the crude oil futures market this week have put downside price pressure on the grains.
USDA on Tuesday afternoon rated the U.S. winter wheat crop as 26% good to excellent as of May 24, down one percentage point from the previous week and the lowest for this time of year in records dating to 1986.
World weather today said some of the minor wheat areas in the southern United States from the Delta into the southeastern states may experience some harvest delay and quality declines because of expected rain. The southern U.S. Plains are also expected to trend wetter, which warrants a closer watch on crop conditions. Drying and warming in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada’s central and eastern Prairies will be okay for a little while, but timely rain and cooling will be warranted in June to ensure crops develop favorably. Rain coming to central Alberta and a few Montana locations should prove beneficial for small grain development. Oregon may also get some needed rain while the Yakima Basin and Snake River Valley in Idaho remain drier biased.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are now fading. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar charts, but just barely. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $6.88 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.38 3/4 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at 6.15 and then at the May low of $6.05 1/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.20. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.86 1/4 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.64 and then at $6.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 121 points to 76.16 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a six-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw more technical selling from the shorter-term speculators today. Lower crude oil prices also helped to pressure cotton today.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed 53% of the U.S. cotton crop planted as of Sunday versus 50% one year ago at the same time and a five-year average of 53%.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in U.S. cotton areas from West Texas to the Carolinas, Georgia, northern Florida and South Texas has improved crop and field conditions – some more than others. Additional moisture is expected in West Texas during the next ten days that will further raise topsoil moisture for improved planting, emergence and establishment conditions. Crop improvements are also occurring in the southeastern states with more rain expected. Soil conditions in the Delta will remain wet for a while and some drying might be welcome.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart to suggest the bulls are exhausted and that a near-term market top is in place. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 85.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 79.09 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 75.72 cents and then at 75.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.