Corn
Price action: December corn fell 3 3/4 cents to $4.74 1/4, nearer the daily low, closed at a two-month low close and for the week down 5 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market’s technically bearish weekly low close again today suggests more chart-based selling in corn futures early next week. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily chart for December corn. Traders will continue to monitor the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoon.
USDA this morning reported daily sales of 127,000 MT of U.S. corn to Japan during 2026-27. The agency also reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.122 MMT during the week ended Oct. 8, up 46% from the previous week and 42% from the four-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said rain will briefly disrupt the U.S. Midwest harvest over the next few days from Nebraska and Kansas to the Great Lakes region, but a period of welcome drying will follow to limit the impact of rain delays. Meantime, southern Brazil is too wet, but it will begin drying today and that trend will last into early next week. Some flooding has occurred recently and there may have been some damage to a few crops. Timely rain is expected in center west and perhaps some northeastern crop areas later this week into next week.
Harvesting got a late start in the western Corn Belt and the related commercial hedge pressure will continue for the next few weeks. The strong U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market will also be a headwind for the grain futures markets in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: Attention in the coming months will turn from abundant U.S. supplies to potentially better export demand for U.S. corn. The International Grains Council raised its global corn production figure on Thursday, with most of the increase coming from the increased U.S. corn estimate.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 1 3/4 cents to $12.61 1/4, near mid-range, hit a six-week low and for the week down 30 3/4 cents. December soybean meal fell $2.70 to $357.10, near mid-range and for the week down $8.50. December bean oil fell 2 points to 67.13 cents, near mid-range and for the week down 89 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean futures markets today saw technical selling pressure, while meal saw weak long liquidation from the speculators. November soybeans also saw a technically bearish weekly low close today, which gives the chart-based bears momentum for pressing the short side early next week. Monday afternoon comes the weekly USDA crop progress reports.
USDA this morning reported daily sales of 558,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China along with 236,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2026-27. USDA also reported weekly soybean sales totaled 574,900 MT during the week ended Oct. 8, up 5% from the previous week but down 40% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the low-end of the pre-report range of estimates from 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said rain will disrupt the U.S. Midwest soybean harvest over the next few days from Nebraska and Kansas to the Great Lakes region, but a period of welcome drying will follow to limit the impact of rain delays. The U.S. Delta and southeastern states will be dry for an extended period of time, supporting good or improving harvest conditions. The southeastern states were too wet for a while. Southern Brazil is too wet but it will begin drying today and that trend will last into early next week. Timely rain is expected in center-west and some northeastern crop areas later this week into next week.
90-day outlook: Bulls were disappointed this week when soybean futures failed to move higher despite 1.08 million metric tons of flash sales announced throughout the week, with China accounting for 800,000 MT of that total. In the coming months soy complex traders will continue to monitor China’s demand for U.S. soybeans, to see if that country abides by its previous commitments to buy U.S. beans. Meantime, weather and growing conditions in Brazil and Argentina soybean regions will move closer to the front burner. The Brazilian agency Conab this week released its updated production estimate of 181.6 MMT, below the USDA WASDE estimate of 186 MMT.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 9 1/2 cents to $6.60 1/2, nearer the session low, hit a two-month low and for the week down 10 1/2 cents. December HRW wheat lost 9 cents to $7.04, nearer the session low, hit a three-month low and for the week down 15 1/4 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 9 1/2 cents to $6.76 1/2, near the daily low and for the week down 18 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical selling pressure to end the trading week as prices continue to trend down on the daily bar charts. Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes in December SRW and HRW futures set the table for some follow-through, chart-based selling pressure next week.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 319,900 MT during the week ended Oct. 8, down 29% from the previous week and 4% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the low-end of analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 300,000 to 600,000 MT.
Canada’s farmers struggled to harvest this year’s crops due to an unseasonably wet September, and farmers and crop quality assessors are reporting damage to pulse crops and spring wheat, Reuters reported. Meantime, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) on Friday increased its forecast for the state’s wheat harvest by 864,500 MT to 10.9 MMT, saying mild temperatures had helped the crop.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, frost and freezes in wheat areas of the far west today and especially Saturday will end the growing season for many crop areas, but there will be no harm done to any of the region’s wheat. The quick rebound in temperatures back to notably warm conditions next week will allow emergence and establishment to continue without disruption since soil temperatures will remain warm throughout the forecast period. Recent rain has improved soil moisture in much of Oklahoma outside of the Panhandle setting the stage for more aggressive wheat planting, emergence and establishment. There is still need for greater rain in Colorado, western Kansas, the Texas Panhandle and western Nebraska. Some rain will reach these areas briefly next week, although more will still be needed. In the Northern Plains, fluctuating temperatures are expected to occur across much of the crop region in the coming days. Drier conditions this weekend into early next week will allow for some continued harvesting to occur, though more moisture will be needed to improve drought conditions and to support winter crops.
90-day outlook: Wheat futures in the coming months could find support from reports this week of potentially lower production from Canada which could result in tighter global stocks. Expectations of food prices to rise in coming months as oil and fertilizer flows remain restricted also may lift futures in the coming months. Focus will remain in the amount of grain being shipped out of the Black Sea region and any progress on a ceasefire between warring Russia and Ukraine.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 6 points to 80.00 cents, nearer the session low and for the week down 54 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market paused today. Selling interest was limited by a weaker U.S. dollar index and by sharply higher crude oil prices today that took WTI futures prices back above $100 a barrel. However, buying interest late this week was limited by a wobbly U.S. stock market, led by a big sell off in the technology sector.
USDA’s weekly export sales report today showed U.S. cotton sales of 146,900 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027 were down 11 percent from the previous week and down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Costa Rica (74,300 RB), India (21,300 RB) and Pakistan (19,800 RB). Net sales of 7,200 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for Costa Rica (6,700 RB) and Pakistan (400 RB). Exports of 140,600 RB were down 13 percent from the previous week and off 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (40,800 RB), India (20,100 RB) and Bangladesh (12,400 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said improving soil moisture is occurring in parts of the U.S. hard red winter wheat region from recent rain. Oklahoma and south-central Kansas have received the greatest moisture. Rain is still needed in other areas and some of that moisture may evolve during mid- to late week next week. Drought remains a concern in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Meantime, eastern Europe continues to struggle for wheat and barley planting moisture. Many areas from Slovakia and Hungary into Greece and east across Ukraine to Russia’s Southern Region are also dry. Rain is needed in all of these areas and the Black Sea region will get it. Other areas will remain dry biased. India’s wheat planting is under way and will continue over the next few weeks. Some beneficial moisture is present in the far north, but other areas need more rain to ensure the best emergence and establishment in unirrigated fields. Southern Australia is also expected to produce quite well this season due to timely rainfall in recent weeks and some additional moisture that is expected in some areas. Argentina’s wheat has benefited from recent rain and more may evolve next week. Southern Brazil wheat is vulnerable to a quality decline from Parana into Rio Grande do Sul and Paraguay because of too much rain. Harvest delays will continue for a while this week and more rain is expected next week after a brief break.
30-day outlook: U.S. harvest will wind up in the coming weeks and focus will return to demand. Traders will be watching for signs of export demand and weather impacts on remaining crop quality. Cotton futures traders will continue to look to the grain futures markets for price direction in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a 1.5-year high, which is making U.S. cotton more expensive to purchase in non-U.S. currency on the world trade markets. The approaching holiday season and better demand for apparel may offer some support to cotton futures. However, sales of U.S. cotton abroad need to continue to improve in order for cotton futures prices to sustain an uptrend.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.