Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 6 1/2 cents to $4.28 3/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders as trading has turned choppy late this week. A keen risk-off day in the general market place that saw a sharp sell-off in the stock indexes and all commodity futures markets in the red today, except sugar, also kept the corn futures buyers on the sidelines.
USDA is collecting survey-based data for its upcoming crop production report scheduled for release on Nov 14, according to the agency’s statistical arm, despite the ongoing government shutdown.
Brazil’s corn exports in November are expected to reach 5.57 MMT, versus 4.92 MMT in November 2024, according to Anec.
World Weather Inc. today said precipitation in the Midwest through late next week will be infrequent and often light in most areas, allowing fieldwork to advance well around two rounds of precipitation occurring today into Sunday and favoring northern and eastern areas with today’s forecast drier for Nov. 15-17 than what was advertised earlier this week. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal most often through Friday before Saturday is cooler and Sunday and Monday are much colder than usual followed by warming Tuesday and warmer than usual conditions during the middle to late part of next week.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.18. First resistance is seen at the October high of $4.37 and then at $4.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.26 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 26 3/4 cents to $11.07 1/2, near the session low. December soybean meal lost $12.10 to $312.70, nearer the daily low. December soybean oil fell 34 points to 49.35 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean and meal futures today saw heavy profit-taking from the shorter-term traders. After recent strong gains, both markets were ripe for a stronger downside correction. No chart damage occurred today but the bulls do not want to see strong follow-through selling pressure on Friday. A keener risk-off day in the general marketplace was also a bearish element for the grain markets today. Most commodity futures markets traded in the red today, with the U.S. stock indexes suffering sharp losses.
Chinese supply chain operator and property developer Xiamen C&D today said it had signed contracts totaling over $5.2 billion with seven agribusinesses and trading houses including Cargill and Louis Dreyfus Company in Shanghai. The contracts signed covered soybeans, corn and cotton among other goods, according to a social media account.
Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 3.77 MT in November, compared to 2.34 MMT in November 2024, according to Anec. Soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.23 MMT versus 1.73 MMT one year ago.
World Weather Inc. today said late-season U.S. harvest weather will advance around infrequent rainfall during the next 10 days. No crop quality problems are expected because of periodic rain. In South America, a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. There is need for greater rain in portions of center-west and northeastern Brazil and some of that need will be fulfilled in the next couple of weeks. However, subsoil moisture will remain low in northern Mato Grosso do Sul, southern Mato Grosso and southwestern Goias.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $10.70 1/4. First resistance is seen at $11.20 and then at this week’s high of $11.35 3/4. First support is seen at $11.00 and then at $10.85.
December soybean meal bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $335.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $304.00. First resistance comes in at $318.00 and then at this week’s high of $325.20. First support is seen at $310.00 and then at $305.00.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.33 cents and then at last week’s high of 50.94 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 48.27 cents and then at 48.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 19 1/4 cents to $5.35 1/2, near the daily low. December HRW lost 17 3/4 cents to $5.22 1/4, near the daily low. December spring wheat futures rose by 3/4 of a cent to $5.57, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets saw heavy profit-taking and weak long liquidation today. Heightened risk aversion in the general market place today was also bearish for wheat futures. The overall raw commodity sector saw selling pressure today and the U.S. stock market sold off sharply.
Chinese buyers have booked two cargoes of U.S. wheat, the first such purchases since October last year, two traders said on Thursday, while a sorghum shipment has been sent from the United States to China, a U.S. industry official said.
A group of South Korean flour mills has issued an international tender to purchase around 50,000 MT of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, dry weather will continue through Nov. 14. Temperatures will be unusually warm except Sunday into Monday when an unusually cold air mass briefly moves across the region. Precipitation potential will increase for the second half of November; though, the greatest moisture is likely to be in eastern production areas. In the Northern Plains, some snow and a little rain will occur late today into Saturday. This still will not provide enough moisture to make much of a difference in topsoil conditions. However, there will be some minor snow accumulation. A period of unusually cold temperatures will occur this weekend followed by much warmer temperatures next week.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. However, the bulls now need to step up and show fresh power soon. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.80. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.45 and then at this week’s high of $5.55. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.31 1/4 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.90. First resistance is seen at $5.30 and then at this week’s high of $5.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.18 1/2 and then at last week’s low of $5.05.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 69 points to 64.54 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw selling pressure from sell-offs across much of the raw commodity futures sector. Solid losses in the U.S. stock indexes today were also a negative outside-market element for cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. cotton harvest conditions have been mostly good in southern Georgia, northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and across Texas. Fieldwork has been a little slow recently in parts of the Delta and the remaining southeastern states, but restricted precipitation in the next ten days will be good for ongoing fieldwork. California and Arizona rainfall advertised in Wednesday’s forecast model runs was removed overnight, keeping the outlook for harvest progress looking very good at least until Nov. 20.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Prices are still trending up on the daily bar chart but now just barely. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 65.00 cents and then at 65.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 64.46 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.