Corn
Price action: December corn rose 16 1/4 cents to $4.57 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a four-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw heavy fund short covering and fresh speculative and technical buying as prices have seen a bullish upside breakout from a congestion area at lower levels.
Corn futures rallied in part as ratings for France’s corn crop plunged to their lowest level in 13 years after last week’s record heatwave, according to official data, with continued hot, dry weather threatening further damage to this year’s harvest, reports Reuters.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.642 MMT during the week ended July 2, down 175,150 MT from the previous week. Net inspections topped analysts’ pre-report range of 1.3 to 1.6 MMT.
Farmers in Brazil’s center-south had harvested 30% of their 2026 second corn crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was up 8 percentage points from the previous week and 2 points ahead of the same week last year.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports will be closely examined by traders. The corn crop is expected to be in 66% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 67% last week and 74% one year ago at the same time.
World Weather Inc. today said France remains at the center of the most stressed crops in Europe. Some areas in southern parts of England and Wales are also too dry along with parts of western Germany and neighboring areas. No country has a greater need for rain than France, though, at least in its unirrigated fields. Weather in the next 10 days will leave western Europe out of the potential for significant rain, leaving crop stress present and intensifying. Central and eastern parts of Europe should get some timely rain. Returning heat in western and southern France, Spain and Portugal late this week and into the weekend will exacerbate crop moisture stress in dryland production areas and raise the demand for irrigation in those areas that have that available. In the U.S., Midwest crops benefited from the recent warmer and drier-biased weather conditions. However, heavy rain during the holiday weekend in parts of Iowa, Illinois and a few areas to the east may have raised some crop quality concerns. A drier weather pattern for the Midwest is forecast for next week.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. A price downtrend on the daily bar chart was soundly negated today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.25 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.60 and then at $4.65. First support is seen at $4.50 and then at the overnight low of $4.44 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 44 1/2 cents to $11.92 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a five-week high. September soybean meal rose $8.10 to $311.20, nearer the daily high and hit a four-week high. September soybean oil rose 105 points to 67.39 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex today saw spillover buying interest from the surge in corn futures prices. Short covering and fresh speculator buying was featured in the complex today. Weather forecasts for the Midwest are now not so bearish.
Also friendly for soybeans, China and the U.S. have agreed in principle to include agricultural products in a reciprocal tariff reduction framework following recent talks, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement last Thursday.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 528,350 MT during the week ended July 2, up 84,530 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were near the upper end of analysts’ pre-report range of expectations from 300,000 to 600,000 MT.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports will be closely examined by traders. The soybean crop is expected to be in 65% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 65% last week and 66% one year ago at the same time.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the Midwest will see another week of very high production potential as there will be a lack of significant heat in much of the region, while favorable subsoil moisture and at least some rain favorably supports crop development. There will be brief periods of heat in and near eastern South Dakota, where some areas will see highs in the middle and upper 90s today. However, a warmer and drier weather pattern will occur July 13-20 and western areas will be warmest, where some crops may be stressed by the heat with early indications suggesting eastern South Dakota and nearby areas should be hottest while the soil in and near northwestern Iowa may become dry enough that stress to crops rises.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have gained the firm near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.14. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $11.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.00 and then at $12.14. First support is seen at $11.75 and then at $11.60.
Soybean meal bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been soundly negated. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $325.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at $315.00 and then at $320.00. First support is seen at $307.70 and then at today’s low of $303.00.
Bean oil sees prices still trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 70.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 68.00 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 65.42 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 14 1/4 cents to $6.14, near the daily high and hit a two-week high. September HRW gained 11 1/4 cents to $6.49 3/4, near the daily high and also hit a two-week high. September spring wheat futures rose 10 3/4 cents to $6.29 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting today. The strong gains in corn and soybeans also spilled over into buying interest in wheat futures today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 133,652 MT during the week ended July 2, down 263,909 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were short of analysts’ pre-report range of expectations from 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports will be closely examined by traders. The spring wheat crop is expected to be in 59% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 59% last week and 50% one year ago at the same time. The winter wheat crop is expected to be in 26% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 26% last week and 48% one year ago at the same time. The U.S. winter wheat crop is expected to be at 60% harvested as of Sunday.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, a mostly good mix of weather is predicted over the next two weeks for wheat maturation and harvesting. There will be some showers and thunderstorms periodically, though resulting rainfall is unlikely to be great enough to seriously threaten unharvested crops. In the Northern Plains, warmer temperatures in the 80s and 90s in will increase some evaporation in the region, with excessive heat expected late in the week. More rainfall will be needed to maintain soil conditions in the western portions of the crop region.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing fields. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.26 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.74. First resistance is seen at $6.15 and then at $6.26 1/2. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.85.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.64 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.60. First support is seen at $6.30 and then at $6.20.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 118 points to 78.30 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw short covering today and also some sympathy buying amid solid rallies in the grain futures markets today. Rallies in the U.S. stock indexes today were also a positive for the cotton market.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports will be closely examined by traders.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the southern Plains, light showers will occur in the Panhandle Wednesday into Thursday before nearly all cotton areas in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma benefit from at least some rain Friday into Tuesday of next week when daily showers and thunderstorms affect the region. Little rain is expected July 15-20 and greater rain will be needed soon as moisture from the coming rain is lost to evaporation. Showers will be more numerous during the next two weeks in south Texas, the Blacklands and the Coastal Bend than what has occurred recently, but rain is likely to be too light and infrequent to prevent much of the region from drying down overall. Topsoil moisture has become short while subsoil moisture is still supportive of cotton development in most areas. Some stress to cotton is likely during the third week of the month as the subsoil dries out with south Texas and then the Blacklands likely to run out of subsoil moisture first.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 80.47 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at 79.00 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.