Corn
Price action: December corn fell 3/4 cent to $4.41 1/2, nearer the daily low and for the week unchanged from last week’s Friday close.
5-day outlook: The heretofore beleaguered grain bulls this week appeared to be coming back to life right at a time that history shows can be price-pivotal for the markets. After a three-day U.S. Independence holiday weekend, Monday’s price action in the grain futures markets could set the tone for trading action over the next few weeks. Still, very good growing conditions over most of the Corn Belt may limit gains in the near term. The corn market also got a bit of support from a notably weaker U.S. dollar.
For the week ended June 25, USDA reported U.S. corn export sales of 732,100 MT for 2025/2026 were down 2% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales 767,800 MT for 2026/2027. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report expectations, which ranged from 500,000 MT to 1.1 MMT for old-crop and 400,000 MT to 1.1 MMT for new-crop.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons.
30-day outlook: Weather in the Corn Belt still leans overall price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said additional rain and notable improvements in soil moisture will occur into this weekend in the driest areas from eastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota into north-central Iowa and south-central Minnesota while areas to the north see lighter and beneficial rain. Meanwhile, eastern Kansas to the eastern Corn Belt will be warm to hot and will see limited rain today while soil moisture in place favorable supports crop development. Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms in much of the Midwest Friday into July 16 along with a lack of significant heat through at least the next week will leave much of the region with very high production potentials and favorable conditions for corn pollination and other crop development. The southwestern Corn Belt will be warmest overall and a close watch will be made regarding its rainfall distribution. Much of the Midwest will be left with enough soil moisture by the middle of the month to support crop development into the latter part of the month if drier weather were to evolve.
90-day outlook: Despite USDA Quarterly Stocks data indicating record-usage for the March-through-June period, the balance sheet remains relatively bloated for corn, with last year’s largest corn crop ever harvested being followed by another year with so far no major weather driven yield losses. Pockets of too much or little moisture in the Corn Belt exist but have not caused significant disease pressure so far. The closely followed annual Pro Farmer crop tour in late August will be a main late-growing-season market factor for corn.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 1 1/2 cents to $11.47 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 8 1/2 cents. September soybean meal lost $0.40 to $303.10, near the daily low and for the week up 80 cents. September bean oil rose 3 points to 66.34 cents, near mid-range and the week down 240 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean complex futures paused on this last trading day of the holiday-shortened trading week. Veteran traders know that history shows price action can be pivotal for the markets right after the Fourth-of-July holiday. After a three-day U.S. Independence holiday weekend, Monday’s price action in the soy complex futures markets could set the tone for trading action over the next few weeks. A notably weaker U.S. dollar index today did limit the downside in soy complex prices.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 41,800 MT during the week ended June 25 for 2025/2026, a marketing-year low. Net sales were down 91% from the previous week and 88% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 182,500 MT for 2026/2027. Net old- and new-crop sales each fell short of analysts’ pre-report expectations, which ranged from 300,000 to 650,000 MT and 350,000 to 900,000 MT, respectively.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. Midwest crops have benefited from the recent warmer and drier bias and this trend will continue into Friday. Wetter and cooler conditions are expected during the weekend and through most of next week which should maintain a mostly good environment for ongoing crop development.
30-day outlook: Soybean crush in the month of May totaled 213.1 million bushels, according to USDA, once again setting a record for the month. Demand for soy oil has not proven enough to slow the downdraft in prices. China continues to chip away at their commitment of purchasing 25 MMT of beans in the upcoming crop year, but the bulls would like to see some new, hefty U.S. soybean purchases from China in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: August is arguably the most important growing month for most of the U.S. soybean crop. That means there is still time for a weather-market scare to pop up in soybeans. Focus will also be on the annual Pro Farmer crop tour that occurs in late August.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW wheat fell 1/4 cent to $5.99 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week up 10 cents. September HRW wheat rose 3 1/2 cents to $6.38 1/2, nearer the daily high and for the week up 19 cents. September spring wheat futures rose 1/4 cent to $6.18 3/4, near mid range and for the week up 13 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets today saw weekly closes at or near their weekly highs, which is a price-friendly technical development for price action early next week. Harvest-related commercial hedge pressure is limiting the upside for winter wheat futures markets. However, a lower U.S. dollar index today was supportive for the grains.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 300,100 MT during the week ended June 25 for 2026/2027. Net sales were just above the low end of the pre-report range of 300,000 to 600,000 MT.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, better winter wheat maturation and harvest conditions are expected across the central and southwestern Plains where rainfall will become more restricted in the next 10 days. Temperatures will be warm to hot and that should accelerate drying rates between showers and thunderstorms. Summer crop conditions and livestock will be stressed at times. In the Northern Plains, generally favorable conditions in the eastern half of the crop region will persist. Warmer temperatures in the 80s and 90s will increase some evaporation in the region. More rainfall will be needed to maintain soil conditions in the western portions of the crop region.
90-day outlook: USDA’s major reports this week reaffirmed the bullish supply picture in U.S. wheat. SRW is also the class primarily produced in most of western Europe, which is currently experiencing a record-setting heatwave. For U.S. HRW wheat, poor yields have been reported so far, and fewer acres will only exacerbate the lack of supply. Rains in the northern Plains have been mostly beneficial to HRS.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 72 points to 77.12 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week up 74 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw a corrective pullback from Wednesday’s gains. Weaker U.S. stock index prices and lower crude oil prices today also weighed on cotton futures.
USDA’s weekly USDA export sales report today showed U.S. cotton sales of 49,000 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were down 42 percent from the previous week and down 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (23,200 RB, India (7,400 RB), Pakistan (5,900 RB) and China (5,500 RB. Net sales of 44,100 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Honduras (11,300 RB), Guatemala (9,300 RB), Turkey (6,800 RB) and Mexico (5,200 RB). Exports of 218,800 RB were down 27 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (57,300 RB), Turkey (49,800 RB), Pakistan (31,600 RB) and Bangladesh (14,000 RB).
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said west Texas still needs significant moisture especially in the dryland areas of the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over the coming week; though the resulting rain may be disappointing to many areas and beneficial to a few. Cotton conditions in most other U.S. production areas are rated fair to very good and recent rain should have improved crops considerably in the drier areas of the southeastern states. Crop weather in the Delta is improving and conditions in the southeastern states are quite varied with most of the cotton doing alright.
90-day outlook: Price action in the major U.S. stock indexes and retail gasoline prices at the pump will be major drivers for consumer confidence in the coming months, which in turn will influence consumer demand for apparel this fall. The stock indexes have traded sideways and have turned wobbly since late May. Gasoline prices at the pump have dropped below $4.00 a gallon, on average, which is a positive for consumer confidence. However, gasoline prices are still elevated from levels seen at this time last year. Weather uncertainties will now be a key driver for cotton futures up until harvest.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.