Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 4 cents to $4.75 1/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting today as the near-term technical posture is improving. Higher crude oil prices today were also supportive for corn.
USDA reported daily U.S. corn sales of 380,000 MT of corn to Mexico — of the total 220,000 MT is for the 2025-26 marketing year and 160,00 MT is for 2026-27. Daily sales of 128,000 MT were also reported to South Korea during 2025-26.
USDA reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.69 MMT during the week ended May 7, down 348,760 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 1.4 to 2.45 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said a mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks will lead to favorable conditions for summer crop germination, establishment and development in most areas, while planting will be slowed at times with fieldwork likely to advance well overall around the precipitation. A close watch will be made on rain this weekend into early next week from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota where soil moisture is marginal to short. Another round of frost will occur from Michigan to northern Ohio Tuesday where some corn, soybeans, and winter wheat should be burned back with most summer crops not emerged and temperatures not likely cold enough to cause permanent crop damage.
Corn traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report, which is expected to show 57% of the crop in the ground as of Sunday, compared to 38% last week and 62% at the same time last year.
Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report will be a highlight of the grain-trading week. Corn traders are expecting the agency to significantly reduce this year’s U.S. corn production level, from that seen last year. Traders are also expecting a slight rise in U.S. and global corn stocks, compared to the April USDA S&D report.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage. A potentially bearish double-top reversal pattern on the daily bar chart appears to have been avoided. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March and April high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.61. First resistance is seen at $4.80 and then at $4.87 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.70 3/4 and then at $4.65.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 5 cents to $12.13, near mid-range. July soybean meal rose $5.10 to $324.80, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high. July soybean oil lost 58 points to 73.74 cents, nearer the daily high low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw some technical buying amid an improved near-term chart posture. Spreaders today were featured unwinding their long bean oil, short meal spreads. Higher crude oil prices today also supported buying interest in beans.
USDA reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections of 655,294 MT for the week ended May 7, up 149,826 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of the pre-report range of 300,000 to 765,000 MT.
Thursday and Friday, the highly anticipated summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in China will be very closely watched by grain traders and especially soybean traders. Bean bulls are upbeat about a positive outcome from the meeting that could mean China purchasing more U.S. soybeans. For more Pro Farmer perspective on the U.S.-China summit and other ag-related events this week, click here.
China’s soybean imports rose sharply in April from the same month last year, although shipments were slightly below forecasts made by analysts expecting a surge of arrivals from the U.S. and Brazil. Imports totaled 8.48 MMT, up more than double from March and up 40% on the year.
World Weather Inc. today said soybean planting in the United States should advance around periods of rainfall. Drought has recently been eased in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states, though each area needs more moisture to end drought. Wet and cool weather in the lower Midwest in the coming week will slow fieldwork.
Soybean traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report, which is expected to show 48% of the crop in the ground as of Sunday, compared to 33% last week and 48% last year at this time.
Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report sees soybean traders expecting a slight dip in U.S. soybean stocks but a slight rise in global stockpiles, compared to the April USDA S&D report.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.26 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.70. First resistance is seen at $12.26 1/4 and then at $12.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.07 and then at $12.00.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.70. First resistance comes in at $330.00 and then at $331.10. First support is seen at $320.00 and then at today’s low of $318.50.
Bean oil bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 75.13 cents and then at the contract high of 76.99 cents. First support is seen at 73.00 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 15 cents to $6.34, near the daily high. July HRW gained 10 1/2 cents to $6.86 1/4, nearer the daily high. July spring wheat futures gained 8 cents to $6.86 1/2, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw perceived value buying and some short covering following recent price pressure. A rally in the crude oil market today also supported buying interest in wheat.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of 511,436 MT for the week ended May 7, up 8,934 MT from the previous week and above the pre-report range of 300,000 to 450,000 MT.
World Weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, some recent precipitation in the last 10 days has benefited the region. However, soil moisture is still quite low and a high need remains for greater rainfall to support winter wheat, especially in unirrigated fields. The weather pattern should gradually start to become more supportive of thunderstorm activity in the next two weeks. However, this will take time and northwest flow aloft in the next several days will lead to net drying with temperatures trending above average. The best potential for any meaningful rainfall is after Friday. In the Northern Plains, shower and thunderstorm activity in the next seven days will be generally near to below average. As temperatures warm, the need is growing for greater rainfall in the western half of the region. This isn’t a major issue as of right now but does warrant a close monitoring of the forecast since drought in Montana could worsen if meaningful rainfall does not evolve soon. Temperatures will become well above average this week too which will heighten evaporation rates.
Wheat traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report, which is expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop in 32% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, versus 31% last week and 54% at the same time last year. Spring wheat planted as of Sunday is expected at 51% versus 32% last week and 66% at the same time last year..
Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report sees wheat traders expecting to see a significant decline in U.S. all wheat production this year compared to last year. Global wheat stocks are seen near unchanged from last year. Wheat traders will be watching results of this week’s annual HRW tour sponsored by the Wheat Quality Council.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.50 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.40 and then at $6.50 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.20 and then at $6.10.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at $6.90 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.75 and then at last week’s low of $6.64.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 304 points to 87.77 cents, near the daily high and hit a contract high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures bulls once again stepped hard on the gas to start the trading week. Technicals remain firmly bullish amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. There are no early, significant chart clues that a market top is close at hand. Higher crude oil prices and the U.S. stock indexes today hitting record highs supported renewed buying interest in cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the U.S. southern Plains, rain was more widespread than expected in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, where many areas received at least some precipitation. However, the rain was often light and the moisture will quickly be lost to evaporation while beneficial rain also fell on the Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas. Today’s forecast includes less rain May 16-20 in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma than what was advertised late last week and outside of a few infrequent showers, dry weather will occur most often into May 20 allowing for good planting progress while the soil will be too dry in most dryland areas to support cotton development. After that, a close watch will be made on May 21-25, when isolated to scattered showers should occur most days and at least some temporary improvements in soil moisture should occur with a more generalized rain needed to induce widespread, significant improvements in soil moisture. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will be dry most often into Saturday and fieldwork should advance well before daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms next week slow fieldwork, while improving soil moisture with South Texas benefitting most from the rain.
Cotton traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report.
Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report sees cotton analysts expecting U.S. cotton production to come in slightly lower than the April USDA estimate.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 90.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 81.85 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 88.25 cents and then at 89.00 cents. First support is seen at 86.00 cents and then at 85.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.