Corn
Price action: July corn rose 3 cents to $4.48 1/2, a high-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Nearby corn futures posted back-to-back gains for the first time since late-April amid short-covering efforts following a 61-cent selloff from the April high. A weaker U.S. dollar was positive for the grain complex, though followthrough selling in crude oil futures crimped momentum, as did overhead technicals. Oil steepened its Wednesday decline as President Donald Trump noted the U.S. and Iran are approaching a deal, which could ultimately unleash additional supplies onto the global market, casting a further shadow over already-growing supplies after OPEC+ increased output at a faster-than-expected pace. Moreover, the International Energy Agency said it expects global consumption growth to slow for the remainder of the year amid looming trade uncertainty.
However, weekly export sales data for the week ended May 8, out early this morning, was certainly supportive, with net old-crop sales surpassing expectations for the second straight week at 1.68 MMT. Net sales rose one percent on the week and 24% from the four-week average. New-crop sales totaled 508,900 MT. Exports during the week did decline 22% from the four-week average to 1.41 MMT, with Mexico, Japan and South Korea the top destinations for the week.
Plantings continue to advance across the U.S. World Weather Inc. reports rain is expected in the northern Plains, which will greatly benefit growing crops. Some heavy rain will occur in the western and central Dakotas. In South America, rains Friday will delay harvest progress, while center west and center south Brazil will face net drying conditions for a while.
Technical analysis: Bears continue to hold the near-term technical advantage, with the camp’s next objective to secure a close below support at $4.25.Meanwhile bulls continue to look toward overcoming resistance at $4.70. However, first support lies at $4.40 then at this week’s low of $4.36 1/2, while first resistance stands at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $4.51 and $4.66 1/4.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans plunged 26 1/2 cents to $10.51 1/4 and closed nearer session lows. July meal climbed $4.50 to $296.40, near mid-range. July bean oil closed limit lower, down 300 points at 49.32 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans fell under heavy selling pressure today as weakness in soyoil undercut the market. It is difficult to discern how important today’s price action is given the risk-off selling in soyoil. Friday will be key in determining if today’s sell-off has legs. Soyoil fell under pressure under newswires reporting rumors the EPA submitted the biomass diesel renewable volume obligations for review at 4.65 billion gallons, which would be well below the previously expected 5.25 billion gallons that was proposed by an alliance of biofuel and oil producers. Use for biofuels has plunged in recent months, largely driven by price as soyoil has been too expensive for production and concerns over policy under Trump, generally seen as less favorable for renewable fuels. Still, crush remains strong, as today’s NOPA crush report for April came in at 190.226 million bushels, which was bullish against expectations and up 20.79 million bushels from a year ago, though crush in April 2024 was rather disappointing and well below normal. Crush is still on pace to beat USDA’s current estimate. Even while soyoil use for renewable diesel has slid, use remains strong, keeping soyoil stocks relatively tight despite strong production.
USDA reported net soybean sales of 282,400 MT for 2024-25, which were down 25% from the previous week and 28% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Egypt and Indonesia. Sales were at the lower end of pre-report expectations from 200,000 to 500,000 MT. New-crop sales were above average as last week’s sales to Pakistan helped lift export sales. China is still notably absent from new-crop sales, though last year they also waited until late in the old-crop marketing year before initiating sales.
Technical analysis: July soybeans underwent heavy selling pressure today but managed to hold prices above psychological $10.50 support. If prices do not rebound tomorrow, prices are poised to fall back into the sideways range that capped most price action in April and early May. Additional selling finds support at $10.43 then $10.39. Bulls are seeking to close prices back above 200-day moving average resistance at $10.65 1/2, which is backed by yesterday’s for-the-move high close of $10.77 3/4.
July meal futures surged amid bean oil weakness today, though bears continue to hold the near-term advantage. Bulls failed to overcome the 20-day moving average at $296.50 today, which will remain initial resistance. Strength above that mark targets resistance at $300.0. Support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $295.2, then yesterday’s for-the-move low close at $291.9 on a turn back lower.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat rose 8 cents to $5.32 3/4, near the session high. July HRW wheat gained 5 1/4 cents to $5.28 1/4, near the daily high. July spring wheat futures closed 3 cents higher at $5.80.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting after hitting contract lows earlier this week. A dip in the U.S. dollar index this week is a friendly outside-market element for wheat. However, sagging crude oil prices the past couple days has been a negative for the wheat markets.
USDA reported good U.S. wheat export sales activity today, at 58,600 MT for 2024-25, down 16% from the previous week but up notably from the four-week average. Sales for 2025-26 totaled a solid 746,200 MT, which were above expectations.
Day two of the Wheat Quality Council’s HRW wheat tour saw scouts find an average yield of 53.3 bu. per acre on samples taken from western and south-central Kansas. That’s up from last year’s tour yield of 42.4 bu. on similar routes and up from the five-year average of 42.3 bu. per acre.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in the northern U.S. Plains and southeastern Canada’s Prairies into Saturday “will seriously improve soil moisture for long-term crop development, although disruptive to fieldwork.” Dryness will remain in western Saskatchewan and some eastern Alberta and north-central Montana locations. The southwestern U.S. hard red winter wheat region will also dry down. Some partial relief to dryness is expected in parts of Nebraska, Colorado and northern Kansas where much more rain will be necessary, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Three straight sessions of high-range closes in SRW and HRW wheat futures have not occurred since mid-February. That begins to suggest market bottoms are in place in the winter wheat futures markets. Winter wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in downtrends on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $5.48. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.31 3/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.21 3/4 and then at the contract low of $5.06 1/4. $5.00.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.29 1/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.19 1/4 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton slipped 5 points to 65.43 cents and closed near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures have worked lower for seven out of the last eight sessions, breaking the uptrend from the early April low. The new-crop balance sheet has seemed to attract the attention of traders this week. Stocks are seen as rising year-over-year despite acres coming in below 10.0 million acres. USDA anticipates export demands climbing year-over-year as well despite lackluster export demand for the majority of the 2024-25 marketing year. Exports have slowed each year from 2020-21 when purchases were bolstered by the Phase 1 agreement with China. How the new-crop balance sheet shakes out will ultimately be left up to how well trade talks go over the next several months.
USDA reported cotton export sales of 127,200 bales for 2024-25 today, which was up 37% from the previous week but down 4% from the four-week average. Export shipments slowed this week, falling to 338,800 bales. While shipments fell, they remain above what is historically average for this time of year. Vietnam led purchases of old-crop cotton.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures closed lower today but did end the day well off session lows. Bears continue to maintain the technical advantage. Tentative support lies at today’s low of 64.86 cents, which sees little backing until 64.00 cents. Bulls are looking to close prices above the 10-day moving average at 66.46 cents before tackling resistance at 67.50 cents on resurgent strength.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.