Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 3 cents to $4.21, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw a corrective price pullback from three days in a row of price gains. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was a bearish outside-market force for the corn market.
Weather still leans price-bearish for the corn market. World Weather Inc. today said another round of rain fell on the driest areas in the southwestern Corn Belt Wednesday into this morning, with some heavy rain and flooding in east-central Kansas and nearby Missouri while rain was common from central Minnesota to north-central Iowa to Wisconsin to much of the eastern Corn Belt. Much of the Midwest will see two more weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials with the southwestern Corn Belt driest where rain the past couple days should have bolstered soil moisture enough to prevent serious crop stress during the next two weeks, said the forecaster.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 97,600 MT for 2024-25 during the week ended July 10, a marketing-year low and down 92% from the previous week and down 89% from the four-week average. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 565,900 MT. Analysts expected sales to range from 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT for 2024-25 and 400,00 to 900,000 MT for 2025-26.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish key reversal up in December corn futures earlier this week is one chart clue that a market bottom is in place. Still, prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $4.42 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.25 3/4 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $4.18 3/4 and then at Tuesday’s low of $4.13.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: August soybeans rose 8 cents to $10.21 1/2, closing above the 10-day moving average, while August soymeal rose 30 cents to $268.70. August soyoil rose 140 points to 56.22 cents.
Fundamental analysis: A soyoil run to a two-year high lifted soybean futures, though returned meal weakness kept the upside limited. USDA reported weekly export sales of 271,900 MT for 2024-25 for the week ended July 10, down 46% from the previous week and 39% from the four-week average. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 529,600 MT. Analysts expected sales to between 200,000 and 600,000 MT for 2024-25 and 150,000 to 400,000 MT for 2025-26.
U.S. weather is expected to lean favorable for a while, though some forecasts for drier and warmer weather next week. The soybean market will become increasingly focused on weather as August approaches.
Technical analysis: August soybeans ended the session above the 10-day moving average of $10.16 1/2, though resistance will continue to serve at the 20-, 100-, 40- and 200-day moving averages, layered from $10.31 1/2 to $10.41. Conversely, initial support lies at $10.08, then $10.00 and this week’s low of $9.93.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 7 1/2 cents to $5.54 1/4, near the daily low. December HRW wheat fell 5 1/4 cents to $5.40, near the daily low and a new contract low as well. December spring wheat futures fell 4 1/4 cents to $6.15 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures saw losses across the board today, with SRW seeing the largest loss. The lack of weather concerns has led to wheat trading in the lower end of its range lately, with December HRW even hitting a new contract low today.This morning USDA reported U.S. wheat export sales for the week ending July 10 of 494,400 MT for 2025-26, which was within the range of market expectations.
Areas of South Dakota and eastern Montana received some rain overnight according to World Weather Inc., although not in the major spring wheat producing regions. Chances for Montana to receive rain again in to the weekend are still possible. No relief from drought in the Pacific northwest is currently forecasted within the next two weeks, and temperatures are also forecasted to be hotter than usual which could continue the decline in spring wheat condition for the area. Internationally, Australia has had winter crops struggle to establish after a lack of timely rain prevented planting until early July in some areas mostly in the east. Argentina has received multiple bouts of rain in over the last two days that has been beneficial for the crop, but looks to be drying out until at least next week.
Technical analysis: December SRW today saw resistance at $5.58 3/4 , trying to break through multiple times mid-morning but continually falling back down. The contract fell throughout the day, finally finding some support around $5.53 1/2. December HRW saw a similar story, finding resistance at $5.44 3/4 and finding weak support around $5.38. With harvest progressing, some sort of catalyst will be needed to spur upward price movement.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 24 points to 68.80 cents, nearer the session high and closed at a three-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market bulls are still having a good week and are working on starting a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. A rally in the U.S. stock market today and higher crude oil prices were bullish outside-market elements for the natural fiber. However, a firmer U.S. dollar index today did somewhat offset the friendliness of gains in stocks and crude oil.
USDA today reported U.S. cotton sales totaling 5,500 RB for 2024/2025 were down 93 percent from the previous week and down 89 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam, Peru and Bangladesh. Net sales of 73,000 RB for 2025/2026 primarily for Honduras, Nicaragua and Pakistan. Exports of 156,400 RB were down 35 percent from the previous week and down 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam, Turkey and Pakistan.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas cotton needs warmer temperatures and some additional rainfall to induce ideal cotton development. The Texas Blacklands will also experience a limited rainfall pattern and warmer temperatures while a favorable mix of weather impacts the U.S. Delta and southeastern states. Warmer temperatures advertised for this weekend and next week will be good for cotton. Argentina cotton weather will be drier-biased for much of the coming week to ten days favoring crop maturation and harvest progress. The same is true for Mato Grosso, Bahia and some immediate neighboring areas in Brazil. There is a chance for a few showers in Argentina, although resulting rain will not be great enough to seriously impact fiber quality or field progress.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid sideways and choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 69.00 cents and then at 69.52 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 68.35 cents and then at this week’s low of 67.36 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.