Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 3 1/2 cents to $4.22, near mid-range and hit a contract low early on today.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more technical selling pressure today as the charts remain firmly bearish. Also, weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remains price-bearish and conducive for good corn yields this fall. A drop in the U.S. dollar index to a 3.5-year low today did not help out the corn market bulls.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop at 73% “good” to “excellent” conditions, up three percentage points from last week, and at 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfecting), the corn crop improved 3.5 points to 381.4, which is 9.1 points above last year at the same time.
World Weather Inc. today said ”no excessive heat and timely showers and thunderstorms will support normal crop development across a big part of the U.S. Midwest” over the next two weeks. There is some potential for net drying to occur in a few pockets and a close watch on those areas will be warranted. Meantime, southern portions of center-south Brazil corn production areas will get some much needed drier weather in the next week to 10 days, which may improve conditions for grain filling and maturation. Late-planted crops are behind in their development and frequent rain and wet field conditions recently did not help the situation. Argentina’s dry bias is great for summer crop maturation and harvesting, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.40. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.25 and then at this week’s high of $4.29 1/2. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.16 1/2 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: August soybeans were unchanged at $10.29 3/4, ending nearer the session high, while November soybeans rose 1/4 cent to $10.27 1/4. August soymeal rose $2.10 to $273.70, while August soyoil rallied 101 points to 53.66 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Corrective buying hoisted soybeans from a fresh for-the-move low, which faded in step with meal futures. However, resumed soyoil strength was also responsible for igniting some corrective buying after a stiff selloff since the June 20 high. The Senate’s passing of President Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is a step closer to the utilization of feedstocks primarily produced in the U.S., Canada and Mexico in the production of biomass biodiesel.
USDA rated the soybean crop as 66% “good” to “excellent” as of June 29, unchanged from last week, while 7% was rated “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the soybean crop slid 0.9 point to 361.8 and is 1.1 points below last year. World Weather Inc reports no excessive heat and timely showers will continue to support normal crop development across a big part of the Midwest, Great Plains, Delta and southeastern states over the next two weeks.
Following the close, USDA will release its Fats & Oils Report, which is expected to show soy crush totaled 204.9 million bu. In May, based on a Bloomberg survey. That would be up 2.5 million bu. (1.2%) from April and 13.3 million bu. (6.9%) from year-ago.
Technical analysis: August soybeans edged to the lowest level since April 10, testing support at $10.20 1/2 in the process, though a high range close is indicative that a near-term low may be in place. However, bulls will need to secure closes above the 100-, 200-, 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $10.43 1/4 to $10.49 ½, as well as the June 20 high of $10.82 1/2. Meanwhile, initial support will remain at $10.20 ½, though bears continue to have their sights set on a breach of the psychological $10.00 area and the April 7 low of $9.82 3/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW futures closed 10 31/2 cents higher at $5.49, near session highs. September HRW futures rose 4 1/2 cents to $5.31 1/4. September spring wheat futures rose 2 1/2 cents to $6.28.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures saw relative strength today, posting solid gains but stalling as technical resistance eventually weighed on prices. Prices were supported by reports that grain exports out of Ukraine are well below a year ago. Ukraine exported 15.72 MMT of wheat in 2024-25, down 15.0% from the previous year. Exports are likely to continue to be hindered given Russia’s control over portions of Ukrainian production areas.
A good mix of rain and sunshine is expected in HRW production areas over the next two weeks. That should allow for good filling and maturation in the north, while precip will disrupt harvest in the south, says World Weather Inc. Conditions will be near ideal in the northern Plains, continuing to support the spring wheat crop. Some rain will be needed in the latter half of the forecast window.
USDA rated the spring wheat as 53% “good” to “excellent” and 14% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the spring wheat crop improved 1.1 points to 355.4, which is still 26.9 points below last year. Winter wheat ratings ticked a point lower to 48% “good” to “excellent.” Given that harvest is 37% completed, winter wheat conditions shouldn’t change much in the coming weeks. Winter wheat harvest continues to run behind normal but did pick up last week.
Technical analysis: September HRW futures surged today and closed on session highs. Bears continue to retain the technical advantage. Gains stopped just shy of $5.50 resistance today, which remains bulls initial target. Strength above that mark eyes the 40-day moving average at $5.55 1/4. Support comes in at $5.40 then yesterday’s low of $5.34 3/4 on a turn back lower.
September HRW futures saw less impressive gains today. Gains were stifled by resistance at $5.40. Strength above that mark would have bulls eyeing resistance at the psychological $5.50 mark. Support comes in at today’s low of $5.22 3/4 on a turn back lower.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 10 points to 68.03 cents, ending near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures stabilized after facing heavy selling on Monday, though technical pressure continued to limit buyers. Traders are starting to look ahead to what is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month–the June employment situation report from the Labor Department on Thursday, out a day early due to Friday’s Independence Day Holiday. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 110,000 versus the rise of 139,000 in the May report. Meanwhile, a weaker U.S. dollar and firmer crude oil lent to today’s more positive tone in cotton futures.
USDA rated the cotton crop as 51% “good” to “excellent” as of June 29, which was a four-point increase from the previous week. The “poor” to “very poor” rating declined three points to 17%. Meanwhile, 95% was estimated to be planted, while 40% was squaring and 9% setting bolls.
World Weather Inc. reports rainfall in West Texas is expected to increase this week, favoring more support for crop development, while little rain is expected in the Blacklands, Texas Coastal Bend and South Texas.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures attempted to recapture a portion of Monday’s losses, though technical resistance at the 40- and 100-day moving averages, currently trading at 68.23 cents and 68.61 cents, made for a futile attempt. However, support at the 20- and 10-day moving averages, each trading around 67.90 cents served up notable support. Bulls continue to look toward breaching the 70.00 cent level, while bears continue to look toward securing a close below the early April low of 64.24 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.