Corn
Price action: July corn futures lost 1 3/4 cents to $4.13 3/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw early gains evaporate as the trading session progressed. Bulls can get no traction due to very good overall corn-growing weather in the U.S. at present, as well as this week’s sell off in the crude oil market that saw WTI futures prices today score a three-month low.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop at 68% good to excellent as of Sunday, up one percentage point from the previous week. Most of the improvements were found across central areas of the Corn Belt. Emergence was estimated at 94%.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier increased his U.S. corn yield by 1.0 bushel to 182.0 bushels per acre. He notes the corn harvested acreage figure will be adjusted, if necessary, once the June Acreage Report is released on June 30th. He currently estimates production at 15.652 billion bushels. Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn production estimate by 1 MMT to 139 MMT, with “off season” rain last week helping some of the later planted safrinha crop. He maintained his Argentine corn production estimate of 63 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states are going to get enough showers and thunderstorms over the next two weeks to maintain good crop development conditions. A part of the lower Delta may get too wet while portions of the Southeastern States get needed rain. Meantime, Safrinha corn areas of Brazil will receive additional waves of rain slowing crop maturation and harvest progress. The moisture might be good for the more immature crops in the south.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.21 and then at $4.25. First support is seen at Monday’s contract low of $4.06 1/4 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 10 3/4 cents to $11.30, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high. July soybean meal rose $2.80 to $304.80, near the daily high after hitting a four-month low overnight. July soybean oil fell 145 points to 72.92 cents, nearer the daily low and closed at a five-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets saw short-covering and perceived bargain buying today amid unconfirmed rumors the Chinese are looking to book more U.S. soybeans. Gains were limited, however, by very good growing weather in most of the Midwest. Sharp losses in crude oil today, that hit a three-month low, also kept the buyers in the soybean complex from being aggressive. Still, today’s decent gains, combined with Monday’s gains, are one technical clue the bears may be exhausted and that a near-term market bottom could now be in place.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 66% good to excellent as of Sunday, up one percentage point from the previous week. Plantings were estimated to be 95% complete and emergence stood at 88%.
Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier raised his U.S. soybean yield estimate by 0.5 bushel to 52.5 bushels per acre. He currently estimates production at 4.467 billion bushels. Dr. Cordonnier maintained his Argentine soybean production estimate of 49 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward. Harvest was estimated to be 95.2% complete as of late last week.
World Weather Inc. today said soybean yield potential will remain very high through the next two weeks as the Midwest will see regular rain through most of the period and mild temperatures through at least most of the next week leaving much of the region with moist soils that will favorably support crop development into at least early July. Some flooding will likely result from bands of heavy rain during the next week in the central and southern Midwest with less frequent rain expected June 23-30 important in allowing rivers and streams to recede before flooding becomes serious. A close watch will be made on the rainfall distribution in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt where the topsoil has firmed up.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily chart is now in serious jeopardy. The next near-term technical objective for the soybean bulls is to close July prices above solid resistance at $11.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.38 1/2 and then at $11.50. First support is seen at $11.20 and then at this week’s low of $11.02 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at $307.00 and then at $310.00. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at the February low of $297.80.
Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is to close July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 79.69 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 75.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 72.37 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 6 1/4 cents to $5.96, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high. July HRW lost 6 1/4 cents to $6.33 3/4, nearer the daily low. September spring wheat futures rose 4 3/4 cents to $6.35.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets took different price directions today, with spreaders featured buying SRW and selling HRW in the nearbys. The two-session winning streak in July SRW does begin to suggest the bears are exhausted and that a near-term market bottom is now in place.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the U.S. winter wheat crop as 27% good to excellent, up two percentage points from the previous week. Still, that rating was the lowest for that specific week since 1989, according to USDA data. Harvest was estimated to be 25% complete as of Sunday, ahead of average by 5 percentage points. USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 55% good to excellent as of Sunday, up three percentage points from a week earlier.
World weather today said U.S. wheat areas in the Plains and Midwest will be cooler than usual this week and precipitation will be restricted for many areas. The environment should be good for filling and maturing crops. Rain is needed in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and portions of the interior northern Plains. Portions of eastern and western Canada’s Prairies are too wet while central areas might benefit from a rainfall boost. Drying may also be needed soon in Ontario and Quebec.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily chart for July SRW has now been negated. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.04 1/4 and then at $6.10 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.82 3/4 and then at this week’s low of $5.74 3/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.45 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.21 1/2 and then at last week’s low of $6.14.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 158 points to 75.01 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a solid corrective bounce today. Short covering and perceived bargain hunting were featured. Cotton traders brushed off sharply lower crude oil prices today, was well as a selloff in the U.S. stock indexes.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed U.S. cotton in 11% poor to very poor condition, in 39% fair condition and 50% in good to excellent condition. The crop was 88% planted, 19% squaring and 2% setting bolls, as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas rainfall during the weekend was disappointing and it will remain that way this week. Rain is needed throughout the region especially in unirrigated areas. Some moderate to heavy rain will impact South Texas, the Texas Coastal Bend and portions of the Blacklands this week. Some of that heavier rain may also impact the lower Delta.Crops in the upper Delta will remain favorably wet if not a little too wet in a couple of pockets while the southeastern states wait on greater rainfall to ease dryness. Some of that needed rain will fall later this week.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures see a downtrend on the daily bar chart in serious jeopardy now. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 75.40 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 72.67 cents and then at the June low of 70.92 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.