Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 1 3/4 cents to $4.62, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw buying support today from the rallying winter wheat futures markets, and from gains in soybeans.
USDA Monday afternoon estimated U.S. corn plantings to be 11% complete as of April 19, which is in line with year-ago and two percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence was estimated at 4%, up two points from year-ago and the five-year average. USDA also reported daily sales of 100,000 MT of corn to Colombia and 195,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations during 2025-26.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged for 2025-26 at 134 MMT, but increased his Argentine corn estimate by 6 MMT to 60 MMT following increases by both the Rosario Exchange and Buenos Aires Grains Exchange amid strong yields and increased planting area. Cordonnier noted uneasiness around such an increase this late in the growing season.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. remains slow in the heart of the Midwest, but progress has been made. The Delta will trend wetter this weekend into next week and some needed rain may impact a part of the southeastern states briefly during the weekend and next week. Meantime, in Brazil, another round of beneficial rain fell on Safrinha corn areas in southern Mato Grosso do Sul Monday, while rain extended into central and west-central Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraguay to the western half of Rio Grande do Sul with western into central Mato Grosso seeing rain as well. Rain during the next two weeks in Parana and Sao Paulo should not be great enough to prevent continued drying that will induce increasing stress to Safrinha corn and declines in yield potentials, but there will be some rain in Parana where temporary relief from dryness will occur.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, recent price gains suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the April low of $4.48 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.65 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.58 3/4 and then at $4.55.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 8 1/2 cents to $11.90 1/4, nearer the daily high. July soybean meal closed steady at $321.20, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil rose 235 points to 71.65 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw support today from surging soybean oil prices, which were boosted by a solid rally in the crude oil market. Shorter-term traders today were again featured buying soybean oil and selling meal futures.
USDA on Monday afternoon estimated 12% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted as of April 19, up 6 percentage points from the previous week and seven points ahead of the five-year average.
Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates for 2025-26 unchanged at 179 MMT and 48 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral bias going forward for both crops.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest was mostly dry Monday and some planting likely occurred in the drier areas while temperatures were much warmer than normal in the west and colder than normal in the east before another round of frost and freezes occurred in the eastern half of Ohio this morning where winter wheat was burned back by the cold. The soil is dry enough in areas near and south of the Ohio River that although some bands of heavy rain are likely Sunday into next Tuesday delays to planting should be mostly temporary. The soil is wet enough in most other areas that multiple days of drying will likely be needed before farming activity can resume. A drier weather pattern will occur April 29-May 5 and planting should steadily increase and eventually become aggressive in many areas.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.40. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $11.99 and then at $12.15. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.77 and then at last week’s low of $11.68.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $327.70 and then at $330.50. First support is seen at $316.00 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 73.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 65.35 cents. First resistance is seen at 72.00 cents and then at 72.50 cents. First support is seen at 70.00 cents and then at today’s low of 69.11 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 6 3/4 cents to $6.12 3/4, near the session high. July HRW gained 8 1/4 cents to $6.55 3/4, near the daily high. September spring wheat rose 11 1/2 cents to $6.98 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw still more technical buying interest amid a weather market that has developed in HRW futures. USDA on Monday afternoon rated the U.S. winter wheat crop as 30% good to excellent as of April 19, down four percentage points from a week earlier and 15 points below last year’s rating at this time. On our Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop slid 10.8 points to 270.81 and the SRW crop fell 5.44 points to 360.64.
World Weather Inc. today said freezes in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas during the weekend further injured the crop. Rain coming to the northwest this weekend will be welcome but it may be coming a little late for big changes in production. Hot and dry weather is likely early to mid-week this week. Freezes in the Midwest this morning had a low impact on the soft wheat crop. Meantime around the globe, returning wet biased conditions in parts of the former Soviet Union may lead to some field working delays. The moisture will saturate the soil in some areas. Not much fieldwork has begun yet and there should be plenty of moisture for planting this year. Wheat conditions in Europe and North Africa are mostly good and the same is suspected in the Middle East. Some increase in rainfall may be needed soon in parts of western Europe.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.36. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.15 3/4 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.98 1/2 and then at $5.90.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.63 and then at $6.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.41 1/2 and then at $6.30.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 82 points to 80.86 cents, near the daily high and hit another two-year high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw more technical buying featured today. A rally in crude oil futures was also price-friendly for the cotton market today.
USDA Monday afternoon reported 11% of the U.S. cotton crop was planted versus 10% one year ago and a 10% five-year average.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico showers recently were welcome and good for crop development, though much more rain was needed. Some rainfall is expected during the next couple of weeks. West Texas will see some improving opportunity for showers in the high and low Plains next week. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture, but not much is expected for a while. The Delta will start getting more timely rainfall this weekend and next week, although a full recovery to normal soil moisture is unlikely. The southeastern U.S. will continue in drought this week with some rain expected next week that may offer temporary improvements.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now short-term overbought and due for a decent corrective pullback. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 82.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 81.16 cents and then at 82.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 78.87 cents and then at 78.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.