Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 2 cents to $4.19 3/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some chart consolidation today amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart for December corn. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was a bearish outside-market influence for the grains.
USDA Monday afternoon reported the U.S. corn crop as 68% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, down one point from the previous week. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0-500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop slid 3.5 points from last week to 373.7 but still 5 points ahead of year-ago.
Mike Lee, a Republican from Utah, will introduce legislation today to block President Trump from shifting renewable fuel blending obligations from small to larger refineries, according to Reuters. The bill, titled the ‘Protect Consumers from Reallocation Costs Act of 2025,’ would amend the Clean Air Act to prohibit EPA from reallocating renewable fuel obligations.
World Weather Inc. said temperatures in the Midwest will warm today and much-warmer-than normal temperatures will be common Wednesday into at least late next week while temperatures stay above the frost threshold through the same period.
Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report is coming more into focus of grain traders. According to a Reuters survey of analysts, the agency will estimate U.S. corn production at 16.516 billion bushels and an average yield of 186.2 bushels per acre. That compares to USDA’s August production estimate of 16.472 billion bushels and an average yield of 188.8 bushels an acre.
Technical analysis: December corn futures prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.03 1/2. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $4.24 1/4 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.14 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 2 1/2 cents to $10.31 1/4, nearer the daily low. December soybean meal rose $3.40 to $289.00, near the daily high. December soybean oil fell 99 points to 50.48 cents, near the daily low and hit a nearly three-month low.
Fundamental analysis: While November soybeans lost some ground today, arguably more important is that the soybean meal futures market appears to be coming off of life-support and closed at a near two-week high close today. Spreaders were featured selling soybean oil and buying meal today.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 64% “good” to “excellent as of Sept. 7,” down one point from last week. On our CCI, the soybean crop declined 2.46 points to 364.27 and now sits 3.0 points behind last year.
World Weather Inc. said rain in the Midwest will be infrequent and mostly light in most areas during the next two weeks and crop maturation and harvesting should advance well, while minor declines in crop yields occur in some southern areas. Most crops are too advanced to see declines in yields. Some showers will occur on occasion, however, and a few crops should benefit from the moisture with coverage of significant rain in the drier areas before crops reach maturity not likely great enough to induce widespread increases in yields. Much of the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt would benefit from greater rain to improve winter crop prospects, said the forecaster.
Friday comes USDA’s supply and demand report, out at 11:00 a.m. CDT. The average of analysts surveyed by Reuters shows a U.S. soybean production estimate of 4.271 billion bushels and an average yield of 53.3 bushels an acre in the September report, compared to the August USDA production estimate of 4.292 billion bushels and an average yield of 53.6 bushels an acre.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.62 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at $10.40 and then at $10.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $10.21 1/2 and then at $10.10.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls now have some momentum on their side. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at $290.00 and then at $295.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $284.90 and then at last week’s low of $281.40.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 53.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 51.98 cents and then at last week’s high of 52.85 cents. First support is seen at 50.50 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 3 1/2 cents to $5.20 1/4, nearer the daily low. December HRW wheat fell 7 cents to $5.10 1/4, near the daily low. December spring wheat futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $5.74.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures bulls did not have the strength to produce important follow-through buying today, following Monday’s decent gains. Price downtrends on the daily charts remain in place.
Stocks of Canadian wheat as of July 31 fell to 4.1 MMT vs. 5.28 MMT in the same period last year, according to Statistics Canada.
Ukrainian farmers plan to increase the 2026 winter grain sowing area to 5.43 million hectares from 5.24 million in 2025, according to its Economy Ministry. However, dry soils in some areas have caused a slow start to planting.
World Weather Inc. said that in the northern Plains enough rain is expected in Montana and northwestern North Dakota in the first week of the outlook to improve winter crop planting, but also cause some fieldwork delays. Much less rain is expected in areas farther to the southeast and this, in combination with unusual warmth, will help support summer crop maturation and crop harvesting. A favorable mix of rain and sunshine is likely in the second week of the outlook, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.25 and then at $5.35 1/2. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.14 1/2 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.19 and then at $5.31 1/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.01 3/4 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 25 points to 66.46 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw some more tepid short covering following recent losses. Gains in cotton were somewhat limited by selling pressure in the grain futures markets today.
USDA Monday afternoon reported that the U.S. cotton crop is in 54% good to excellent condition, 35% fair and 11% poor to very poor condition, as of last Sunday. Cotton traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. A Bloomberg survey showed analysts on average expect U.S. cotton production this year at 13.54 million bales, which is slightly up from USDA’s August estimate.
World Weather Inc. said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see a drier weather pattern during the next two weeks “and cotton should develop favorably in many areas due to adequate soil moisture with some infrequent showers that will slow drying rates and induce temporary increases in soil moisture.” Much of the Panhandle will receive up to 0.75” of rain and locally more Saturday into Sunday, while scattered showers bring up to 0.50” of rain and locally more to parts of West Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Meantime, the Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and south Texas will also be dry through most of the next two weeks and cotton maturation and harvesting should occur in a mostly favorable environment around some infrequent showers, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 68.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 64.24 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 66.86 cents and then at 67.50 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 65.80 cents and then at 65.50 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.