Corn
Price action: December corn rose 15 1/2 cents to $5.43, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw solid gains amid general optimism ahead of President Trump and President Xi’s meeting in Washington, D.C., this week and strong U.S. export inspections. Short covering and fresh speculator buying interest were featured. USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn inspections totaled 1.939 MMT during the week ended Sept. 17, up 386,513 MT from the previous week. Net inspections topped analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 1.2 MMT to 1.85 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see good harvest progress overall during the next two weeks, but there will be some delays, especially west of the Mississippi River following rain Wednesday into Saturday. Parts of the region will receive rain today before fieldwork increases Tuesday and is then slowed again by daily rounds of showers Wednesday into Saturday, with Iowa and nearby areas likely wettest where some heavy rain and local flooding may occur. Drier weather Sunday into Oct. 5 will allow for a steady increase in harvesting. Areas east of the Mississippi River will see quickly improving conditions for fieldwork this week as little rain is expected outside of a few infrequent showers. Soil moisture is still short from southern Illinois into Kentucky where rapid harvesting is likely while the region remains in need of greater rain to support winter wheat planting, germination, and establishment.
Traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 56% good to excellent condition as of Sunday versus 57% last week and 67% in the same condition one year ago. The corn crop is expected to have been 12% harvested as of Sunday.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at $5.49 3/4 and then at $5.55. First support is seen at $5.35 and then at $5.30.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans gained 24 1/2 cents to $13.28, near the daily high. December soybean meal rose $9.80 to $368.40, near the daily high. December soybean oil rose 63 points to 68.85 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex markets saw solid speculator buying interest today following weekend reports that China was buying more U.S. soybeans ahead of this week’s summit meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. Preliminary discussions between the U.S. and China lean optimistic, reports said. Soybean meal prices bounced back smartly today, following Friday’s downdraft, which also encouraged the soybean bulls.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean inspections totaled 759,193 MT during the week ended Sept. 17, up 78,941 MT from the previous week. Net inspections topped analysts’ pre-report estimates, which ranged from 300,000 to 750,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said weekend rainfall in the northern Midwest disrupted fieldwork and some of the wetter areas will need a few days of drying, especially in the wettest areas from northern Missouri and Iowa into Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota. Less significant and less frequent rain will get fieldwork moving along a little better later this week into next week, although some rain is still predicted for portions of the Midwest.
Traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 58% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, the same as one week ago and compares to 63% in the same condition one year ago at the same time. The soybean crop is expected to have been 11% harvested as of Sunday.
Technical analysis: November soybeans bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $13.35 1/4 and then at $13.50. First support is seen at $13.00 and then at last week’s low of $12.92.
Soybean meal sees a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $385.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $355.00. First resistance comes in at $370.00 and then at last week’s high of $374.20. First support is seen at $360.00 and then at $356.60.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at 70.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 71.09. First support is seen at today’s low of 67.57 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 12 1/2 cents to $7.26 3/4, nearer the daily high. December HRW gained 10 3/4 cents to $7.94 1/2, nearer the session high. December spring wheat futures rose 5 cents to $7.46 1/4, near mid-range for the day.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting from the specs today. Buying interest was fueled in part by solid gains and corn and soybeans and by the Russia-Ukraine war still running hot. A Moscow oil refinery was hit during drone attacks that were part of the largest overnight Ukrainian barrage this year. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it downed 1,110 Ukrainian drones across 19 regions of Russia as well as in Crimea, Bloomberg reported.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 335,253 MMT during the week ended Sept. 17, down 137,727 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within the expected pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, relief to months of hot, dry, weather is coming to the southern Plains this weekend and it should last into early October. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase soil moisture from the southwestern Plains into Kansas and temperatures will not be nearly as hot as they have been. Improved winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment conditions are likely as time moves along during the next two weeks. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across the crop region, alongside seasonable to warmer than usual temperatures. Rainfall will inhibit fieldwork, though increased moisture will be beneficial in supporting the development of winter crops.
Traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, expected to show the U.S. spring wheat crop at 96% harvested as of Sunday, while the U.S. winter wheat crop is expected at 14% planted as of Sunday.
Technical analysis: Fledgling price downtrends on the daily bar charts are still in place for SRW and HRW futures. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $7.95. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.85. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $7.36 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $7.10 and then at $7.00.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $8.58 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at $8.10 and then at $8.20. First support is seen at last week’s low of $7.78 1/4 and then at $7.65.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 227 points to 83.42 cents, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw short covering from the speculators today, after prices last Friday hit a five-week low. Solid gains in the grain markets and the U.S. stock indexes also spilled over into better buying interest in cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see showers most days through next early next week that will benefit some irrigated cotton development, while the rain will come too late to benefit most cotton with the potential for quality declines and boll rot possibly outweighing whatever benefits occur. Some cotton discoloration is likely to result from the rain while concerns over boll rot increase with some potential for cotton fibers to be strung out if rainfalls too heavily. Drier weather advertised for September 30-Oct. 5 will be important in drying out cotton bolls and bleaching the fibers white. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see occasional rounds of mostly light showers through the next two weeks and cotton maturation and harvesting should occur in a mostly favorable environment as there should be enough drying time between showers to dry out cotton fibers. Rain should be greatest Sep. 28-30 when much of the region receives at least some precipitation.
Traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures see prices still trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 88.80 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 84.36 and then at last week’s high of 86.51 cents. First support is seen at 82.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 80.71 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.