Wheat producers: Advance 2026, initiate 2027 crop sales... Wheat futures have surged higher amid constrained exports out of the Black Sea. Wheat is trading at multi-year highs, providing a good selling and hedging opportunity. We advise selling 30% of 2026 production to get to 60% sold in the cash market. We also advise initiating 2027 crop sales, selling 10% of anticipated production.
Corn
Price action: December corn fell 3 cents to $5.33 1/2, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market bulls stopped to catch their breath today, following a nearly three-week big bull run. Don’t be surprised to see bulls overnight and Friday morning stepping in to aggressively buy the dip. The charts remain firmly bullish and the fundamental picture is the same. More strength in wheat futures did limit seller interest in corn futures today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 31,200 MT for 2025-26, a marketing year low, during the week ended Aug. 20, down 87% from the previous week and 89% from four-week average. Net sales of 1.067 MMT for 2026-27.
World Weather Inc. today said although regular rounds of showers will occur through the next 10 days, net drying will be common as temperatures will be warmer than normal weekend into next week and rain will be infrequent and light most often. Some corn in the northwestern Corn Belt will benefit from at least some rain during the next two weeks and some small increases in yields are likely with the rain too late for a major boost in production. The wetter areas will benefit from warmer and dry weather and conditions for crop maturation will improve while concerns over early harvest delays from southern Illinois and western Kentucky to Ohio will decline.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Monday’s gap-higher trade on the daily chart appears to be a “breakaway” gap that suggests still-higher prices to come. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of the aforementioned price gap. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $5.38 3/4 and then at $5.45. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.28 and then at Wednesday’s low of $5.21 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 2 cents to $12.68, nearer the daily high and hit another contract high. December soybean meal rose $1.60 to $340.90, nearer the daily high and closed at a nearly two-year high for the contract. December soybean oil rose 77 points to 68.51 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures saw the bulls step in to buy the early dips in prices—a sign of still-strong price uptrends. More gains in wheat prices also supported beans and meal. USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 73,900 MT for 2025-26, down 13% from the previous week and down 40% from the four-week average. Egypt and Indonesia led sales. Sales were in the middle of expectations ranging from -200,000 to 200,000 MT. Big new crop sales totaled 2.478 million MT, with China and unknown destinations leading purchases. Trade expected sales between 1.5 MMT and 3.0 MMT.
Soybean planting in Mato Grosso begins Sept. 16 and producers may wait for additional rain and increases in soil moisture before planting as there is often a period of hot and dry weather in September that may evaporate much of the coming rain, notes World Weather Inc.
World Weather Inc. today also said warming is expected in the U.S. Midwest along with drier weather in a few of the areas that have excessive moisture. The U.S. Delta is likely to see a little less heat late this week and “some” rainfall to help induce some sporadic relief from heat and dryness.
Technical analysis: The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $12.71 1/4 and then at $12.85. First support is seen at $12.50 and then at Wednesday’s low of $12.32.
Soybean meal sees a solid price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at$350.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $325.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $343.30 and then at $347.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $335.80 and then at $330.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 71.69 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 69.50 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 65.98 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 12 1/2 cents to $7.60 3/4, nearer the daily high and scored another contract high. December HRW gained 13 1/4 cents to $8.22, nearer the daily high and hit a contract high. December spring wheat futures rose 9 3/4 to $7.57 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets today saw the bulls step in to buy the early dips in prices, which is a sign of a strong market that still has legs to the upside. Black Sea supply constraints continue to hover over the marketplace. USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 402,500 MT for 2026-27 during the week ended Aug. 20, up 2% from the previous week and 41% from the four-week average.
Argentina’s wheat establishment has likely advanced well, notes World Weather, though some rain is needed in western production areas. Southern Brazil wheat is rated in favorable condition, along with wheat in northern Brazil, where harvest has begun. There is concern tattoo much rain will negatively impact southern Brazil crop later this spring.
World weather today also said summer crop stress has been horrific in the southern Plains recently, with persistent excessive heat and no rain. Production cuts are common. The hot weather will be briefly disrupted by some “cooler” air into Friday, but the excessive heat will resume during the weekend. Not much rain is likely in the hottest areas of the south, although a few showers will be possible Wednesday through Friday during the temporary cooling period. Showers and thunderstorms will occur a little more often in eastern Colorado, the northwestern Texas Panhandle, Kansas and Nebraska in the coming week to 10 days. The moisture will help slow drying rates, but greater rain will be needed to induce a lasting boost in topsoil moisture. Wheat planting usually begins in the southwestern Plains in the first days of September and that process may be slowed by the region’s heat and dryness. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across the crop region, alongside seasonable to slightly warmer-than-normal temperatures. Days of dry conditions will benefit spring wheat harvesting, though areas in Montana and South Dakota may need more rainfall in the coming weeks before winter wheat planting begins. Summer crops continue filling and will need some periodic rain to ensure the best yields.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $6.85. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $7.67 1/2 and then at $7.85. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.41 and then at $7.28.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $8.27 and then at $8.40. First support is seen at $8.00 and then at $7.92 3/4.
What to Do: NEW ADVICE: S 30% of 2026 production to get to 60% sold in the cash market. We also advise initiating 2027 crop sales, selling 10% of anticipated production.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026 and 10% of expected 2027 production.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold and 10% of expected 2027 production.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 327 points to 92.41 cents, near the daily high and hit a contract high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw solid speculator buying interest today amid bullish charts and scorching hot weather in much of the southern Plains cotton regions.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. cotton sales of 95,700 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027, primarily for Vietnam (19,000 RB), Guatemala (14,400 RB) and Bangladesh (14,000 RB). Net sales of 39,600 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for Malaysia (30,800 RB) and Guatemala (8,800 RB). Exports of 181,000 RB were primarily to Vietnam (47,900 RB), Pakistan (35,300 RB), India (18,800 RB), Turkey (15,000 RB) and Mexico (11,600 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see net increases in crop stress and declines in yields through the next two weeks as hot temperatures will continue through at least most of the next week and rain will be too light and infrequent to induce more than brief improvements in crop and soil conditions. Much of the region will benefit from at least some additional rain and a brief reprieve from excessive heat today. Cotton that received significant rain the past couple days will be able to use that moisture for a while with stress to the crop likely to soon increase as the soil dries out again. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and stress to developing cotton will steadily increase as the soil dries out while cotton maturation and harvesting occurs in a mostly favorable environment.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 95.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 87.05 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 91.75 cents and then at 92.50 cents. First support is seen at 90.00 cents and then at today’s low of 88.88 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.