Corn
Price action: December corn fell 3 cents to $5.27 1/2, nearer the session low, closed at a three-week-low close, and for the week down 2 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market saw a technically bearish weekly low close today, setting the stage for some follow-through chart-based selling from the specs early next week.
The condition of the French corn crop worsened last week to hit another record low, according to FranceAgriMer, as hot, dry weather persisted in the European Union’s biggest grain producer. By September 14, 23% of the corn crop was in good to excellent condition, down from 23% a week earlier.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in the Corn Belt regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Tuesday and although fieldwork will be slowed most crops are not ready to be harvested. At least some additional rain in the southwestern and south-central Midwest will induce beneficial increases in soil moisture. Some heavy rain and a significant bolstering of soil moisture will occur from northeastern South Dakota and northeastern Kansas to Wisconsin to Michigan and northern Ohio today into Saturday and some local flooding may result. Additional rain in a large part of that region Sunday into Tuesday may cause increase flooding. Drier weather will resume Wednesday into Oct. 2 and that will be important where heavy rain falls into early next week.
90-day outlook: Harvesting and commercial hedge pressure will ramp up in the coming weeks, which will add to selling pressure in corn futures. Ongoing uncertainties regarding the Black Sea and Sea of Azov grain shipments will remain market-sensitive for all of the grains into at least the end of this year. Such could limit the downside for corn. Those export risks are compounded by already reduced supplies in the European Union after a severe drought in western Europe this growing season. There is also concern that a strengthening El Niño could trim output in key Southern Hemisphere grain regions later this year.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 16 1/4 cents to $13.03 1/2, nearer the daily low and for the week up 7 cents. December soybean meal fell $12.70 to $358.60, nearer the daily low and for the week up $5.80. December bean oil lost 93 points to 68.22 cents, near the daily low and for the week down 146 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean and meal futures markets today saw profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation, led by meal. Veteran traders had a good idea that meal had come too far, too fast, and was due for a day like today. The technically bearish weekly low close in November beans and December bean oil will keep the bears confident heading into trading early next week.
USDA this morning reported daily export sales of 110,000 MT of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year.
Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to total 115 MMT, according to Abiove, down 400,000 MT after China, the world’s largest importer, ramped up U.S. soybean purchases.
Next week’s summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be a major focal point for the soybean market. Tensions between the world’s two largest economies had risen the past few weeks but appeared to calm down a bit this week.
Monday afternoon comes the weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said waves of rainy weather in the northern and central Corn Belt and additional moisture in the west-central production areas will help fix long-term moisture deficits, but delaying soybean crop maturation and harvest progress. Early season rainfall in parts of Brazil has led to some earlier than usual planting of soybeans. Center-west rain has been reduced recently and net drying has returned dry soil, stressing any early planted and emerged crop. Center-west may not see much moisture of significance for a while, which could lead to some replanting
90-day outlook: NOPA this week reported its crush in August hit a record for the month. Crush use fell to an 11-month low in August but still hit a record for the month. NOPA handles around 98% of total U.S. crush and said members crushed a record 205.456 million bushels in August, up 8.2% from last year’s record. While crush was still up from the previous year, the month-over-month drop could result in marginally tighter supplies in the near term. Soyoil stocks fell to 1.201 billion pounds, down 11.7% from end of July stocks and the tightest supply since November 2024. The strong domestic crush pace is likely to at least keep a floor under the soybean market heading into the end of the year.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 12 3/4 cents to $7.14 1/4, nearer the daily low, closed at a three-week low close and for the week down 11 cents. December HRW wheat lost 10 3/4 cents to $7.83 3/4, nearer the daily low and also closed at a three-week low close, and for the week down 14 3/4 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 11 1/4 cents to $7.41 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 3 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation as the price uptrends on the daily charts have stalled out and prices are now starting to trend down. Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes set the table for some follow-through technical selling early next week.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said the in U.S. HRW country, relief to months of hot, dry, weather is coming to the southern Plains this weekend and it should last into early October. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase soil moisture from the southwestern Plains into Kansas and temperatures will not be nearly as hot as they have been. Improved winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment conditions are likely as time moves along during the next two weeks. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across the crop region, alongside seasonable to warmer-than-usual temperatures. Rainfall will inhibit fieldwork, though increased moisture will be beneficial in supporting the development of winter crops.
The next major data dump for HRS will come at the end of the month in the Small Grains Summary, which includes a detailed breakdown of wheat production by class.
90-day outlook: Global wheat supplies, weather concerns and the Super El Nino, as well as ongoing grain-shipping constraints out of the Black Sea region, will remain focal points for the wheat markets in the coming few months. However, the possibility of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire will remain in the background for bullish traders.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 102 points to 81.15 cents, nearer the daily low, hit a six-week low, and for week were down 491 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw more heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation. The near-term technical posture for cotton remains bearish, which will keep the chart-based bears confident early next week.
The adjusted world price (AWP) for cotton fell to 68.92 cents per pound, remaining above the USDA loan-deficiency-payment threshold.
Traders will be eyeing Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said much of the southern U.S. Plains saw dry and improving to favorable conditions for cotton maturation and harvesting Thursday with some rain noted near the coast along the Coastal Bend. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see showers most days through the next 10 days that will benefit some irrigated cotton development, while the rain will come too late to benefit most cotton with the potential for quality declines and boll rot possibly outweighing whatever benefits occur. Some cotton discoloration is likely to result from the rain while concerns over boll rot increase with some potential for cotton fibers to be strung out if rainfalls too heavily. Drier weather advertised for September 27-Oct. 2 will be important in drying out cotton bolls and bleaching the fibers white. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see occasional rounds of mostly light showers through the next two weeks and cotton maturation and harvesting should occur in a mostly favorable environment as there should be enough drying time between showers to dry out cotton fibers.
90-day outlook: Recent U.S. inflation readings that were still running warm and this week’s Federal Reserve interest rate hike are not good developments for better consumer confidence this upcoming holiday season. Also, demand for apparel could also be crimped with gasoline prices at or above $4.25 a gallon at the pumps. Further, export demand for U.S. cotton has slowed as cheaper Brazilian and Australian supplies enter the market, with a firmer U.S. dollar adding further pressure.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.