Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 6 3/4 cents to $4.83 1/4, near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw some profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Better-than-expected corn-planting progress was also a negative for corn futures today, as was a rebound in the U.S. dollar index today, after it hit a three-year low Monday. Higher crude oil prices today did mostly offset the bearish aspects of a stronger greenback.
USDA Monday afternoon reported 12% of the U.S. corn crop was in the ground as of April 20, up eight points on the previous week and two points ahead of the five-year average. Also leaning price-bearish for corn, World Weather Inc. today said rain in center-west and center-south Brazil as well as in most of the key U.S. corn-producing areas over the next ten days “will be supportive of planting and production.” Flooding in the lower U.S.
Midwest and Delta will linger over the next ten days and additional rain is expected to add more delay to the planting of corn in many areas. Meantime, Argentina weather will be favorable for filling, maturing and harvesting of summer crops. Pro Farmer South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop forecast 3 MMT, to 125 MMT. He also raised his Argentine corn estimate by 2 MMT, to 48 MMT.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but faded a bit today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.65. First resistance is seen at $4.90 and then at this week’s high of $4.95. First support is seen at $4.80 and then at $4.75.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 5 1/2 cents to $10.35 but closed nearer the session low. July meal fell 80 cents to $299.50, marking a two-week low close. July soyoil fell 28 points to 48.03 cents.
Fundamental outlook: Soybeans gathered strength as the session progressed, though technical resistance at the 200-day moving average continued to curb heftier gains.
Meanwhile, a firmer U.S. dollar and a carryover from Monday’s general risk-off tone also weighed on the soy complex. The marketplace seemingly shook off increasing
production prospects in South America, as crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Argentine estimate 1.0 MMT, to 49 MMT, while his Brazilian estimate was unchanged at 169 MMT. He noted soybean harvest was approaching completion with the exception of Rio Grande do Sul, where wet weather has delayed harvest.
In the U.S., soybean planting efforts advanced quite well last week, jumping six points on the week to 8% completed as of April 20, which was three points ahead of average. Plantings are ahead of normal aside from Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio, according to USDA.
Plantings may face upcoming delays, with most of the key U.S. corn and soybean production areas are expected to receive rain over the next ten days. World Weather Inc. notes this will likely exacerbate flooding in the lower Midwest and Delta, with the additional rain to enhance planting delays in the area.
Technical outlook: July soybeans faced relative strength today, recouping a portion of Monday’s decline, though technical resistance at the 200-day moving average, currently trading at $10.51 1/4 continued to pare buying interest. Meanwhile, support at the 10- and 100-day moving averages, each trading around $10.39 served as initial support. Bulls continue to own the near-term technical advantage, and continue to look towards breaching resistance at $10.80, though the 200-day moving average and last week’s high of $10.59 will serve up initial resistance. Conversely, bears seek to hold a close below psychological support at $10.00, with first support at the 10- and 100-day moving averages, which is backed by support at $10.37 1/2 and $10.25.
July meal futures ended the session back below the 20-day moving average of $319.30, marking a two-week low close. Initial support will now serve at $298.40, then at $296.60 and $293.10, which is backed by the April 4 low of $289.70. Meanwhile, the 20-day moving average will now serve as initial resistance, which is backed by 10-, 40- and 100-day moving averages, layered from $302.00 to $310.00.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW futures fell 2 cents to $5.50 1/4 and closed near mid-range. July HRW futures sunk 5 1/2 cents to $5.58 1/4, near session lows. July spring wheat closed 4 1/2 cents lower at $5.95 1/2.
Fundamental outlook: Wheat futures saw followthrough selling today but ended the day well off intraday lows as prices continue to fall despite deteriorating crop conditions. USDA rated the winter wheat crop 45% “good” to “excellent” and 21% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop declined 3.4 points to 315.8 amid a 3-point drop in top producer Kansas. The SRW crop dropped 1.4 points to 368.8, as a 4.4-point decline in top producer Illinois offset improvements in the other states. CCI ratings for both crops remain below year-ago. Conditions are quickly becoming too wet in the east and forecast precip is likely to continue to weigh on SRW conditions.
Crop conditions in the Plains are expected to improve over the next couple of weeks as precipitation is expected to roll through the region. World Weather Inc. notes that showers and thunderstorms are expected to be frequent over the next two weeks. Temperatures are expected to increase alongside precipitation.
Technical outlook: July SRW futures saw followthrough selling today, giving bears the near-term technical edge. Modest support persists at the psychological $5.50 mark, though bears are eyeing a test of support at $5.42 3/4. Resistance comes in at $5.56 1/4, the 10-day moving average, which is reinforced by resistance at the 40-day moving average at $5.64 1/4.
July HRW futures have broken down in tandem with SRW futures the past couple of days. Bears retain the technical advantage and are eyeing a test of the March 4 low of $5.56 1/2, which is reinforced by the contract low at $5.50 1/2. Bulls are looking to close prices above solid resistance at the 10-day moving average at $5.69 1/2 on resurgent strength.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton rose 40 points to 67.22 cents, the highest close since April 9.
Fundamental outlook: Cotton futures resumed recent strength, edging back above the 20- and 40-day moving averages, with corrective gains in equities allowing the natural fiber to reclaim Monday’s losses. However, the uncertainty continues to loom as President Trump continues to show angst toward Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent hawkish stance due to Trump’s inflation-stirring tariff policies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) seemingly confirmed Powell’s recent remarks, by cutting its global 2025 GDP forecast to 28%, down from 3.3% in January. The IMF also warned that the outlook could deteriorate further due to U.S. tariffs sparing a global trade war.
Moreover, some of today’s price strength likely stemmed from optimism after U.S. negotiators indicated they have made “significant progress” toward a bilateral trade agreement with India in the wake of talks between Vice President Vance and the Indian Prime Minister. It was noted that officials in New Delhi are expecting to reach a trade deal with the U.S. within the 90-day pause on tariff hikes, announced by President Trump on April 9.
Meanwhile, U.S. cotton plantings were estimated to have marked a weekly advance of six percentage points to 11% as of April 20. The estimate was in-line with the five-year average, with plantings estimated at 16% in Texas and 3% in Georgia.
Technical outlook: July cotton ended the session back above the 20- and 40-day moving averages, currently trading at 67.01 cents and 67.10 cents, though momentum was stifled by resistance at 67.41 cents. Meanwhile, the 10-day moving average of 66.67 cents limited seller interest. Bulls will continue to look toward securing a close above the 100-day moving average of 69.02 cents, which is backed by psychological resistance at 70.00 cents and the 200-day moving average of 71.67 cents. Bears will look toward edging back below the April 4 low of 62.05 cents, though initial support will serve at the 40-, 20- and 10-day moving averages, then at 66.22 cents, 65.62 cents and 65.03 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.