Corn
Price action: December corn fell 3 1/2 cents to $5.30 1/4, nearer the session low and for the week down 6 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market gyrated on both sides of unchanged after the release of today’s USDA WASDE report, which was a mixed bag. USDA cut its U.S. corn production estimate 213 million bu. from last month. It decreased yield 2.2 bu. to 178.5 bu. per acre. Harvested acres were cut to 88.506 million acres, down 86,000 acres from August despite a 47,000 acre increase to planted acres (to 96.777 million). USDA decreased old-crop corn carryover 23 million bu. from last month. USDA put the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.15, unchanged from last month. On new-crop corn, USDA cut estimated carryover 86 million bu. from last month but that is 39 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA put the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2026-27 at $4.80, up 30 cents from a month ago.
USDA also this morning reported daily sales of 264,000 MT of U.S. corn to Mexico during 2026-27. The agency also reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.929 MMT during the week ended Sept. 3 for the 2026-27 marketing year, which began Sept. 1. Net sales exceeded analysts’ pre-report range of expectations from 1.0 MMT to 1.9 MMT.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in the Corn Belt, regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Sep. 19 and although harvesting will be slowed most crops are not ready to be harvested and where crops are ready to be harvested in the south rain should be infrequent enough to allow early harvesting to advance well overall. Recent and additional rain in the southwestern and south-central Midwest will induce highly beneficial increases in soil moisture. Eastern Nebraska and nearby areas to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will be wettest into Sep. 19 and some areas will see multiple rounds of heavy rain that may cause some local flooding. Drier weather will resume Sep. 20-25.
90-day outlook: Harvesting and commercial hedge pressure could add to selling pressure in corn futures this fall. Ongoing uncertainties regarding the Black Sea and Sea of Azov grain shipments will remain market-sensitive for all of the grains into at least the end of this year. Those export risks are compounded by already reduced supplies in the European Union after a severe drought in western Europe this growing season. Reports this week said more U.S. corn could be shipped into Europe in the coming months, due to their shorter supplies. There is also concern that a strengthening El Niño could trim output in key Southern Hemisphere grain regions later this year.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 35 3/4 cents to $12.96 1/2, near the daily low after hitting a contract high earlier in the session. For the week, November beans were down 13 1/4 cents. December soybean meal fell $4.10 to $352.80, nearer the daily low and for the week down $2.30. December bean oil lost 224 points to 69.68 cents, near the daily low and for the week up 41 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean complex futures markets today saw heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation after today’s monthly WASDE report from USDA favored the bearish camp. Today’s technically bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart and weekly low close will give the chart-based speculators confidence heading into trading early next week.
USDA increased its U.S. soybean production estimate 16.0 million bu. from last month. USDA increased yield 0.1 bu. to 52.8 bu. per acre. USDA increased harvested acres 0.100 million acres to 85.881 million acres amid a 0.100 million acre increase to planted acres (to 86.865 million acres). USDA held old-crop soybean carryover unchanged from last month and left total supplies unchanged alongside the demand side of the balance sheet. USDA put the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2025-26 at $10.50, up a dime from last month. On new-crop beans, USDA cut carryover 10 million bu. from last month but that was still 12 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA put the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2026-27 at $12.00, up 60 cents from last month.
USDA reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 2.637 MMT for the 2026-27 marketing-year, which began Sept. 1. Net sales topped analysts’ range of pre-report estimates between 1.0 MMT and 2.6 MMT.
Monday afternoon comes the weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: The expected late-month summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be a major focal point for the soybean market. Tensions between the world’s two largest economies have risen the past few weeks.
World Weather Inc. today said wetter weather in the western Corn Belt is fixing long-term moisture deficits but delaying crop maturation and harvest progress. A wet bias will remain through next week from Nebraska and Kansas across Iowa and Missouri to Wisconsin and Illinois.
90-day outlook: Malaysian palm oil production will be monitored as well as any impacts of the El Nino weather phenomenon on oilseed production in the Southern Hemisphere. Farmers in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso will likely soon begin planting, as Pro Farmer consultant Dr. Cordonnier noted that the mandatory soybean-free period ended on September 6. Early planting will likely be limited to irrigated fields.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 16 cents to $7.25 1/4, nearer the daily low, hit a nearly three-week low and for the week down 8 3/4 cents. December HRW wheat lost 20 1/4 cents to $7.98 1/2, nearer the daily low, hit a nearly three-week low and for the week down 3 3/4 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 17 1/2 cents to $7.45, nearer the daily low and for the week closed unchanged.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw more profit-taking pressure today, as well as weak long liquidation. Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes set the table for some follow-through technical selling early next week.
USDA today left the estimated U.S. wheat 2026-27 carryover unchanged at 717 million bushels. USDA made no changes on the supply or demand side of the 2026-27 balance sheet. USDA did raise the forecasted average farm price by 20 cents a bushel from last month to $6.40 per bushel. An unchanged wheat balance sheet in the September WASDE is not unusual, as USDA will release the annual Small Grains Summary at the end of this month with more firm data to estimate from.
USDA also this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 194,200 MT for 2026-27 during the week ended Sept. 3. Net sales were a marketing-year low and were down 38% from the previous week and 43% from the four-week average. Net sales fell short of analysts’ range of expectations from 250,000 to 500,000 MT.
Russia’s seaborne grain exports fell by 61.9% year-on-year in August to 2.0 MMT, mainly due to a decline in shipments through the Azov-Black Sea basin, according to shipping data from industry sources released earlier today.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, some periodic rainfall during the next two weeks will help improve topsoil moisture in portions of Kansas and a few areas in both Nebraska and Colorado, but warm weather will keep evaporation rates high and greater rain will still be needed. Texas and Oklahoma rainfall will be welcome and beneficial, but mostly for short periods of time. Drying between rain events will be significant enough to minimize any net gains in soil moisture for a while.
Some early season planting of wheat and other crops will occur in areas that are irrigated in areas that receive significant rain. Much of the planting will occur in October when temperatures will be less oppressively hot. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across the crop region, alongside with fluctuating temperatures. Areas with dry conditions will benefit remaining spring wheat harvesting, though areas in Montana and South Dakota may need to see more rainfall before winter wheat planting begins. Cooling temperatures may bring isolated frost to far western Montana crop areas Monday and Tuesday morning.
The next major data dump for HRS will come at the end of the month in the Small Grains Summary, which includes a detailed breakdown of wheat production by class.
90-day outlook: Global wheat supplies, weather concerns and the so-called Super El Nino, as well as ongoing grain-shipping constraints out of the Black Sea region will remain on the front burner of the wheat markets in the coming months. However, traders presently appear cautious to push wheat prices higher while talks of interest in a peace deal from Putin are swirling.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 216 points to 86.06 cents, nearer the daily low, closed at a three-week low close and for the week down 27 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw heavy profit-taking pressure. The technically bearish weekly low close today sets the stage for some follow-through, chart-based selling pressure early next week.
Today’s USDA WASDE report showed that on old-crop cotton, the lone change to the supply-side was a cut to imports by 10,000 bales. On the demand-side, USDA cut domestic use by 50,000 bales to 1.5 million bales. Exports were raised by 100,000 bales to 12.3 million. The changes resulted in carryout being reduced by 50,000 bales to 4.15 million from last month’s forecast. USDA also raised the average cash price half a cent to 62 cents per pound. On new-crop cotton, USDA reduced supply by cutting production by 410,000 bales to 13.20 million, lowering total supply to 17.36 million bales. The demand-side of the sheet saw domestic use lowered by 100,000 bales to 1.5 million, while exports were left unchanged at 12.3 million. The changes resulted in carryout being lowered by 400,000 bales to 3.6 million, below the average analyst estimate of 3.79 million bales. The average farm price also rose 3 cents to 78 cents per pound.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. cotton sales of 73,900 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027 were primarily for Pakistan (19,400 RB), Vietnam (17,500 RB) and Mexico (11,900 RB). Total net sales of 2,500 RB for 2027/2028 were for Mexico. Exports of 177,800 RB were primarily to Vietnam (50,300 RB), India (47,000 RB) and Pakistan (17,600 RB).
Traders will be eyeing Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said west Texas and Oklahoma will remain very warm to occasionally hot for another week. There is some potential for showers and thunderstorms late next week and into the following weekend, but the precipitation will come a little late to be of much use to this year’s crops. The U.S. Delta has been too hot and dry recently and significant change may not occur anytime soon. Cotton in most other U.S. production areas is in varying condition with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. Brazil’s harvest of Safrinha cotton is winding down and Argentina’s harvest is complete. Australia planting should be getting started in a few irrigated areas. Excessive heat and dryness will restrict dryland planting this year.
90-day outlook: The stock and financial markets have turned a bit wobbly the past couple weeks. September and October are historically the two most turbulent months of the year for stock and financial markets. Any bigger wobbles in the stock, financial or currency markets could dent consumer confidence, which may produce less demand for fall/winter apparel. This week’s U.S. inflation readings that are still running warm suggest the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates by a quarter-point next week. That’s not a good development for better consumer confidence this upcoming holiday season. Also, demand for apparel could also be crimped with gasoline prices at or above, $4.00 a gallon at the pumps.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.