Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 1 cents to $4.16 1/2, nearer the daily high after hitting a four-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market was breaking down on technical selling from the speculators before a late-session rally pushed prices above unchanged and gave the bulls a “save” today. The pop in soybean futures prices after an upbeat social media post by President Trump, saying he’s going to help out soybean farmers, also spilled over into some buying interest in corn. However, commercial hedge selling amid U.S. corn harvesting going near full-speed and still-bearish technical charts are likely to continue to hang over the corn futures market in the near term. The U.S. government shutdown that has prompted an uptick in risk aversion in the general marketplace is also negative for the grain markets.
World Weather Inc. today said warm and mostly dry weather in the Midwest will continue in much of the region through Saturday “and crop maturation and harvest rates will be higher than usual before a period of wetter weather occurs Sunday into Saturday, Oct. 11.” The period of wetter weather Sunday into the following Saturday should not produce heavy rain in many locations and mostly temporary interruptions to fieldwork. Early indications suggest drier weather will resume Oct. 12-15 and harvesting should quickly accelerate while some winter crop areas will be left in need of greater rain. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm into Saturday before cooling occurs this weekend into early next week and by the middle of next week temperatures will be not far from normal. There is no risk of frost or freezes through this weekend with some frost possible in the northwest early next week.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. A five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.25. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.20 and then at $4.20 and then at this week’s high of $4.22 3/4. First support is seen at $4.14 and then at today’s low of $4.10 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 11 1/4 cents to $10.13, near the daily high after hitting a six-week low early on. December soybean meal gained 30 cents to $273.60, nearer the daily high and hit a contract low early on. December soybean oil rose 93 points to 50.42 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean and meal futures saw technical selling pressure today until near the end of the trading session, when an upbeat social media message from President Trump boosted soybean prices. Trump said he will be meeting with Chinese leader Xi in late October and that China’s lack of soybean purchases will be a “major topic of discussion.” Still, the bean bulls have a tough row to hoe at present as the near-term chart posture for the market has deteriorated and the U.S. soybean harvest is in full swing, including related hedge selling pressure. Risk aversion in the general marketplace amid the U.S. government shutdown is also bearish for the grain markets.
World Weather Inc. today said warm and mostly dry weather in the Midwest will continue in much of the region through Saturday “and crop maturation and harvest rates will be higher than usual before a period of wetter weather occurs Sunday into Saturday, Oct. 11.” The period of wetter weather Sunday into the following Saturday should not produce heavy rain in many locations and mostly temporary interruptions to fieldwork are most likely.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but today’s bullish “outside day” up on the daily chart gives the bulls momentum. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.35. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $9.81 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.20 and then at last week’s high of $10.25. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at today’s low of $9.93 3/4.
Soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $280.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $274.80 and then at this week’s high of $277.80. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $270.10 and then at $267.50.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.55 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 50.77 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 49.20 cents and then at last week’s low of 48.89 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 1 1/4 cents to $5.09 1/4, near the daily high after hitting a contract low early on. December HRW fell 2 1/4 cents to $4.95 1/2, nearer the daily high and also hit a contract low early on. Spring wheat futures fell 5 3/4 cents to $5.57.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical selling featured today as the near-term chart postures for SRW and HRW have deteriorated further this week, after Tuesday’s bearish USDA data. However, a pop in the soybean futures market in late trading did lift wheat futures to near their daily highs. President Trump said on social media that more U.S. soybean sales to China will be a “major topic” when he meets with China’s President Xi in late October. Risk aversion in the general marketplace today was also bearish for the grains, amid the U.S. government shutdown.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, topsoil moisture will continue to decline into Saturday due to unusually dry and warm weather with wind speeds that will also be increasing. Some thunderstorm activity is expected late Saturday through Tuesday as a result of a frontal boundary that will enter the region. This rain will be beneficial in helping to restore some of the lost soil moisture from the past several days of drying, which will be good for winter wheat planting and germination. Summer crop maturation and harvesting will also advance swiftly. Additional rain in the second week of the outlook will help out as well. In the Northern Plains, a storm system is expected to impact the region Saturday with rain, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Other than this one storm system, conditions will be supportive of fieldwork and harvest progress during the balance of the coming week. Behind this system will be a cooler air mass which will lead to more morning frosts and freezes. Temperatures will then warm up again next week ahead to another cold front.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends on the daily bar charts have been restarted. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.35 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $5.19 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $5.27 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.02 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at $5.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of $5.08 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.88 and then at $4.80.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 18 points to 65.59 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a six-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market saw technical selling featured today as the near-term technical posture for the natural fiber has deteriorated recently. Risk aversion in the general marketplace today, following the midnight U.S. government shutdown, also kept the cotton bulls on the sidelines. The cotton market did move to near its daily high in late trading after the soybean market popped to its daily high following a social media post by President Trump, saying U.S. soybean sales to China will be a “main topic” when he meets with Chinese leader Xi in late October.
Cotton bulls were also squelched today as Republican lawmakers said China won’t begin purchasing U.S. agricultural products anytime soon after a briefing from David Perdue, the U.S. ambassador to China.
World Weather Inc. today said some showers will return to West Texas and the Texas Panhandle during the second half of next week, slowing crop maturation. Showers elsewhere in the state will be infrequent and light, having a low impact on harvest activity. U.S. Delta crops should be dry biased once again for the next ten days after rain was widespread last week. The drier weather and warm temperatures should help bleach the crop white again. Harvesting will resume after the crop dries down. Cotton in the Carolinas and Virginia may have suffered a quality decline because of rain during the past week. Drier weather is now expected for the next ten days and temperatures should trend warmer over time. Some rain is expected in Arizona and southern California Thursday into Sunday possibly raising the potential for some cotton quality decline.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 64.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 66.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 66.62 cents. First support is seen at 65.00 cents and then at today’s low of 64.70 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.