Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 3/4 cent to $4.12 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a four-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The December corn futures market continues to recover from the contract low set early earlier in the month following a surprisingly bearish USDA report. The recent gains suggest the corn market has put in a seasonal price bottom.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.31 MMT for the week ended Aug. 21, up 253,630 MT and near the upper-end of the pre-report range of expectations of 990,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
Farmers in Brazil’s center-south harvested 98% of their 2025 second corn crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the U.S. corn crop should be too far advanced to see significant declines in yields from forecast drier weather in the Midwest, while corn maturation should be sped up by the continued lack of rain.
Corn traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: A four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and the bulls have momentum on their side. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.25. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.16 1/2 and then at $4.20. First support is seen at $4.10 and then at $4.05.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 10 3/4 cents to $10.47 3/4, near the daily low. September soybean meal lost $1.00 to $295.70, near the daily low and hit a three-month high early on today. September soybean oil fell 53 points to 54.31 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soy complex futures saw some profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term futures speculators following recent gains. A higher U.S. dollar index today also limited buying interest in soybeans.
USDA this morning reported U.S. soybean export inspections of 382,806 MT, down 119,988 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of expectations for 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said areas from southeastern Missouri to southern Illinois and western Kentucky will be mostly dry through the next week “and stress to crops and declines in soybean yields are likely to increase as soil moisture is already short and the remaining moisture is lost to evaporation.” Mild temperatures during the next week will reduce increases in stress and at least some rain Sep. 2-5 will induce at least some benefit to soybeans, said the forecaster.
Soybean traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the June high of $10.74 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $10.62 3/4 and then at $10.74 1/4. First support is seen at $10.40 and then at $10.30.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $310.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $285.00. First resistance comes in at $300.00 and then at today’s high of $305.60. First support is seen at $295.00 and then at Friday’s low of $292.50.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 57.64 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 51.14 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 55.14 cents and then at last week’s high of 55.60 cents. First support is seen at 54.00 cents and then at 53.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 2 1/2 cents to $5.29 3/4, near mid-range. December HRW wheat fell 1/4 cent to $5.20 3/4, nearer the session low. December spring wheat futures rose 2 1/2 cents to $5.92 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some tepid short covering today as December contracts hover not far above last week’s contract lows. The wheat markets have received very little traction from recent rallies in the corn and soybean markets.
USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of 946,472 MT, up 546,245 MT from the previous week and well above the pre-report range of expectations for 350,000 to 550,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said some rain is expected to develop in the Northern Plains late this week. “It won’t be much initially, although it may increase early to mid-week next week. The moisture will disrupt early season harvesting of small grains. The moisture next week will be sufficient to support late-season summer crops in the east, although greater rain may still be desired in a few areas.” A few patches of soft frost may have occurred this morning in North Dakota and northern Minnesota, although no crop damage of significance resulted. Cool-biased temperatures this week will continue to help keep evaporation rates low. Meantime, light frost occurred in southeastern Saskatchewan Sunday morning with a couple of light freezes noted as well. “Most of the cold was not serious enough to have a big impact on immature crops, although assessments of damage will not be complete for a few days. Rainfall across the Prairies in the next 10 days will be restricted which should favor fieldwork of all kinds. Crop maturation rates will improve with the return of warmer-than-usual weather this week, said World Weather.
Wheat traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.35 1/2 and then at the August high of $5.42 3/4. First support is seen at $5.25 and then at the contract low of $5.17 1/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.31 1/4 and then at the August high of $5.44 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.18 1/4 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 69 points to 67.32 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market continues to chop in a sideways range amid mostly uninspired bulls and bears. A higher U.S. dollar index today did limit the upside in cotton futures, but higher crude oil prices somewhat limited the downside.
Cotton traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
World Weather Inc. today said dryland cotton in southwestern parts of west Texas needs significant rain. Some showers are possible late this week into the weekend, but no general soaking rain is predicted. Other areas in west Texas will get rain with some significant amounts in the north. Rain in the Panhandle and rolling Plains should be abundant along with that in southwestern Oklahoma. Temperatures will be cooler than usual during the next seven days which will conserve soil moisture and slow crop growth rates. Timely rain is expected in the Texas Blacklands and upper coast late this week and into the weekend improving late season crop development potential. South Texas rainfall will be erratic and light enough to allow fieldwork to advance around the rain. Meantime, U.S. Delta crops “have dried out greatly, resulting in some crop stress.” Rain is possible later this week and into the weekend offering at least some relief. The southeastern states will continue to experience a good mix of rain and sunshine as will the southwestern desert region. California crops will remain dependent upon irrigation and seasonable temperatures for the best development, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at 68.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 68.30 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 67.22 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.