Corn
Price action: July corn fell 3 cents to $4.64 1/4, ending the session back below the 40-day moving average.
Fundamental analysis: Nearby corn futures continued to face technical headwinds, hovering just below the 100-, 10- and 20-day moving averages, as additional pressure stemmed from a firmer U.S. dollar. The ag complex has held a generally subdued tone this week, as traders anxiously await concrete facts from widely discussed trade deals. Meanwhile, USDA reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.014 MMT for the week ended April 24, down 12% from the previous week and 13% from the four-week average. However net sales for 2025-26 during the week came in heftier than expected, with Mexico leading the charge.
World Weather Inc. reports weather in Brazil, Argentina and the U.S. should be largely beneficial and supportive of crop development and fieldwork. Drying in Brazil is normal at this time of year in center south and center west, although late season safrinha crops will need more moisture late this month and in early June to ensure the best yields.
Earlier today, an updated U.S. Drought Monitor map showed some improvement in drought over the past week. Drought areas decreased by about 2.4 percentage points to 56.1% nationally as of Tuesday, due to rainfall in much of the Plains and Midwest.
Following the close, USDA will release its Grain Crushings Report, with analysts anticipating corn-for-ethanol use totaled 459.9 million bu. for March, up 32.7 million bu. (7.8%) from February but down 12.2 million bu. (2.5%) from last year.
Technical analysis: July corn continues to be limited by the 100-, 20- and 10-day moving averages, layered at $4.79 1/2 to $4.81 1/2, ultimately ending the session below the 40-day moving average of $4.75 1/4. Bulls will need to overcome this area as bears continue to gain a firmer grasp on the near-term technical advantage. However, in order to gain the full technical advantage, bears will need to secure a close below the March low of $4.50 1/2, though first support lies at $ $4.70, then at $4.64 1/4 and the 200-day moving average of $4.61.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans climbed 5 3/4 cents to $10.50 1/4 and closed nearer session highs. July meal sank $3.7 to $294.3, near session lows. July bean oil climbed 73 points to 49.70 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures saw modest strength today, negating most of yesterday’s loss. Bulls struggled to break prices above initial technical resistance but continue to maintain an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Prices were supported by solid export sales this morning, which rebounded from last week. This was a good sign, especially considering China continues to take shipments of U.S. beans despite Brazilian supplies coming available on the world market. USDA reported soybean export sales of 428,200 MT for the week ended April 24, up 55% from the previous week and 27% from the four-week average. China led the list of buyers at 139,400 MT. Sales were within the pre-report range of expectations from 150,000 to 600,000 MT.
There will be another look into how demand has held up this spring as USDA releases their monthly Oilseed Crushings Report, which will detail crush use in March. A poll of analysts done by Bloomberg shows expectations for crush to total 205.9 million bu. in March, which would be up 16.9 million bu. (8.9%) from February and 2.4 million bu. (1.2%) above March 2024. Crush has slowed its pace in recent months as concerns over soyoil use for biofuel has slowed crushers.
Rain fell across much of the Midwest over the past couple of days, with totals above half an inch in most areas, says World Weather Inc. Additional rain is expected over the weekend throughout much of the Soybean Belt, but a drier weather pattern works into the Midwest through the middle of May, which will allow for planting to progress at a good pace, the forecaster says.
Technical analysis: July soybeans bounced today, keeping the recent uptrend intact, though it is in danger. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above yesterday’s close at $10.44 1/2, a break below which would target support at the 40-day moving average at $10.41 3/4 then $10.36. The psychological $10.50 mark will be a key pivot tomorrow, which strength above that mark targeting resistance at $10.53, which sees little backing until resistance at $10.62.
July meal futures reversed from recent strength and closed back near this week’s lows. Bears continue to maintain the technical advantage and are seeking to overcome support at $294.20 before making a run at the contract low at $289.70. Resistance stands at the 10-day moving average at $298.00, which capped strength earlier this week.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat rose 1/4 cent to $5.31, though ended the day nearer the daily low. July HRW wheat fell 2 cents to $5.27 1/2, nearer the session low and hit a contract low. July spring wheat futures sunk 1 1/2 cents to $5.95 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw some tepid short covering mostly offset by more chart-based selling pressure as the technical postures remain bearish for SRW and HRW. Strong gains in the U.S. dollar index today and this week’s steep downdraft in crude oil prices were bearish “outside-market” elements for wheat futures today. Weaker corn futures prices today also inhibited the wheat market bulls.
Weather conditions in U.S. winter wheat country still lean price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said wheat conditions in the central United States “are improving and that trend will continue, although portions of Oklahoma are too wet. Most of the soft wheat in the Midwest is also expected to develop favorably.” Meantime, winter crops in much of Europe “are beginning more aggressive growth.” Moisture conditions “are good and should remain that way, despite drier-biased conditions in the north.There will be some need for greater moisture in the North and Baltic Sea regions and in the lower Danube River Basin into Ukraine soon. Cooler-than-usual temperatures in northeastern Europe may bring on more frost and freezes to slow crop development in the next week to ten days. Eastern Ukraine areas east into Kazakhstan are unlikely to get much rain for a while. Rain is expected in central and western Ukraine and north into the western parts of Russia, keeping fields moist. Temperatures will get cold again in eastern parts of Europe, bringing more frost and freezes this coming week, said the forecaster.
USDA reported more disappointing U.S. wheat export sales of 72,000 MT for 2024-25 during the week ended April 24, up from net cancellations the previous week but down 24% from the four-week average. Sales were in the middle of the range of market expectations. New-crop sales totaled 238,300 MT, within expectations.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in downtrends on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the April high of $5.71. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.37 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $5.44. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.23 1/4 and then at $5.15.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.25 and then at $5.15.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures sunk 36 points before settling at 65.66 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures fell for the fifth consecutive session today as little optimism remains around the market. Widespread rain fell across most portions of West Texas into southwestern Oklahoma recently while additional rains are forecast for the area over the course of the next few days, says World Weather Inc. Conditions are anticipated to dry up a bit after upcoming rains, which will continue to allow plantings to advance. The drought has seemingly been broken in West Texas which ultimately bears the question whether or not additional cotton acres will be planted. Our acreage indicated many producers would review acreage decisions if rain were to occur and break the drought, which could ultimately lead to an uptick in cotton acres, even despite low prices. Export demand remains rather disappointing, particularly on the sales front. Export sales did top week ago, rising 11% to 121,600 bales, though were still 15% below the four-week average. Shipments on the other hand remain strong, totaling 369,900 bales, the fifth highest total for this year.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures continue to undergo stiff selling pressure as bears regained the technical advantage. Selling efforts have slowed the past couple of days, indicating staunch psychological support at 65.00 cents. A break below that mark would target support at 64.52 cents. Resistance stands at 66.50 cents then the 10-day moving average at 66.98 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.