Advice Alert: Corn producers: Finish old-crop, advance new crop sales... Futures surged to contract and multi-year highs as the prospects for the U.S. crop are well below previously expected. A shortfall in production leads to concerns on demand, leading to higher volatility, so actively taking advantage of higher prices is prudent. We advise producers to sell 10% of old-crop stocks. You should now be 100% sold on 2025 production. We advise cash only marketers to sell 20% of expected 2026 production, bringing total sales to 70% forward sold. We advise hedgers to cover the remaining half of the $4.80 puts (20% of production), which closed at 9¢ for a 23¢ loss. We also advise hedgers to sell 20% of expected production to get to 60% forward sold. We will look to add additional coverage via put options in the coming weeks to establish a floor on a portion of unsold crops.
Soybean producers: Advance new-crop sales... Soybean futures ran into stiff resistance at the July highs as production prospects look promising despite the challenges the corn crop has faced throughout the growing season. Demand remains somewhat contingent on U.S.-China relations despite persistent record crush use. We advise cash only marketers to sell another 20% of new-crop soybeans, bringing total coverage to 75% sold. We advise hedgers to sell the $11.60 puts covering 40% of production, which closed at 8 3/4 cents for a 51 1/4¢ loss. We also advise hedgers to sell 30% of expected production to get to 65% sold. We will look at covering additional production via put options in the coming weeks.
Corn
Price action: December corn rose 7 cents to $5.15 1/2, nearer the daily low and hit a contract high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market rallied today as the Pro Farmer Crop Tour on Friday after the close pegged the national U.S. corn crop production number at 15.344 billion bushels on an average yield of 173.2 bushels per acre. Technical buying was featured today as the charts have turned fully bullish. USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.296 MMT during the week ended Aug. 20, down 648,599 MT from the previous week. Inspections were short of analysts’ pre-report range of expectations of 1.5 to 1.8 MMT. Crop monitoring service MARS today cut its forecast for this year’s corn crop in the European Union for the second straight month. It forecasts the average corn production at 6.61 MMT, down from 6.93 MMT in July and down from 7.38 MMT in June.
World Weather Inc. today said warming is needed in the U.S. Midwest, along with drier weather in the areas that have excessive moisture. Weather conditions will be a little milder than usual this week while periods of rain and thunderstorms occur, maintaining favorable to abundant moisture across the region. Meantime, western and southeastern Europe crops are expecting some much-needed rain later this week into next week. Any rain that falls will not reverse the damage from summer drought, but it should help curb the declining trend. Dryness will continue in the Balkan Countries and areas east through Ukraine to Russia’s Southern Region. Other areas in Europe have a better chance for getting a little more rain in the coming 10 days.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Today’s gap-higher trade on the daily chart may be a “breakaway” gap that could mean still higher-price to come. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.24 1/4 and then at $5.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.10 1/4 and then at $5.00.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans lost 15 1/4 cents to $12.24 1/4, nearer the daily low. September soybean meal rose $2.60 to $320.30, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week high. September soybean oil fell 222 points to 67.13 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a six-week low today.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil markets saw pressure from a bearish Pro Farmer Crop Tour U.S. soybean production estimate released Friday after the close. The Tour data projected a U.S. soybean crop of 4.572 billion bushels on an average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre. Spreaders today were featured unwinding long bean oil, short meal spreads. USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 420,895 MT during the week ended Aug. 20, up 126,566 MT from the previous week. Analysts expected soybean inspections to range from 200,000 to 450,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the U.S. Midwest regular rounds of showers will occur through the next two weeks, with most areas seeing rain that is too infrequent and light to prevent net drying, which will improve conditions for soybeans in the wetter areas while reducing concerns over early harvest delays with some of the drier areas in the northwestern Corn Belt benefitting from rain. Most soybeans and some corn in the northwestern Corn Belt will benefit from rain during the next week and some small increases in yields are likely with the rain too late for a major boost in production.
Technical analysis: The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the July high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $11.65 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.39 1/2 and then at $12.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.18 1/4 and then at $12.10.
Soybean meal still sees a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $334.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $322.80 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at $320.00 and then at today’s low of $316.60.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 71.90 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at 68.00 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at 66.00 cents and then at 65.42 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 1/4 cent to $6.81 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a four-week high overnight. September HRW fell 5 3/4 cents to $7.50 1/2, nearer the daily low. September spring wheat futures fell 4 1/2 cents to $6.93 3/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW winter wheat futures market saw some spillover buying support from the solid gains in corn futures today. HRW saw some mild profit taking today. Wheat traders continue to monitor the geopolitical environment in the Black Sea. USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 425,668 MT during the week ended Aug. 20., down 88,695 MT from the previous week. Analysts expected wheat inspections to range from 200,000 to 450,000 MT. Earlier today, the Kremlin indicated measures were being taken to minimize the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s grain exports. Meantime, India, the world’s second-biggest wheat producer, has scrapped a years-long ban on exports of the grain, “a move that could ease global supplies that are under strain from escalating attacks between Russia and Ukraine,” Bloomberg reported.
World weather today said “summer crop stress has been horrific in the southern Plains recently, with persistent excessive heat and no rain. Production cuts are common, grazing grass is quite limited…. The hot weather will continue this week, but it will be a little less extreme. Not much rain is likely in the hottest areas in the south, although a few showers will be possible. Showers and thunderstorms will occur a little more often in eastern Colorado, the northwestern Texas Panhandle, Kansas and Nebraska in the coming week to 10 days. The moisture will help slow drying rates, but greater rain will be needed to induce a lasting boost in topsoil moisture. Wheat planting usually begins in the southwestern Plains in the first days of September and that process may be slowed by the region’s heat and dryness. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across the crop region, alongside seasonable to slightly warmer than normal temperatures. Dry conditions will benefit spring wheat harvesting, though areas in Montana and South Dakota may need more rainfall in the coming weeks before winter wheat planting begins. Summer crops continue filling and will need some periodic rain to ensure the best yields.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $7.11 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $6.26 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.97 1/4 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.75 and then at $6.60 1/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $7.77 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $6.93 3/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $7.71 and then at $7.77 1/2. First support is seen at $7.38 1/4 and then at $7.25.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 48 points to 88.83 cents, nearer the daily high and closed at a contract high close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw more chart-based buying today. Traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
World Weather Inc. today said hot to excessively hot temperatures and serious, yield-reducing stress to cotton continued during the weekend when temperatures reached 111 to 113 in several locations from near Childress, Texas to southwestern Oklahoma, while rain in parts of west Texas and the Panhandle induced temporary relief from dryness to several pockets. Rain was greatest from just north of Lubbock, Texas to just southwest of Amarillo, Texas to east-central and northeastern parts of West Texas where totals were trace amounts to 0.36 inch most often with several pockets of greater totals to near an inch. Much of the remainder of the western and north-central Panhandle received up to near 0.10 inch of rain and locally more while a few light showers occurred elsewhere. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see net increases in crop stress and declines in yields through the next two weeks as hot temperatures will continue through at least most of the next week and rain will be too light and infrequent to induce more than brief improvements in crop and soil conditions. Much of the region will benefit from at least some rain today into Thursday, with a brief reprieve from the heat Wednesday and Thursday in central and northern areas.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 92.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 85.00 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 89.45 cents and then at 90.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 87.29 cents and then at 86.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.