Corn
Price action: December corn fell 5 1/4 cents to $4.13, nearer the daily low and for the week down 6 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn market bulls got punched in the gut today on news President Trump threatened a “massive increase” of tariffs on goods from China, citing recent “hostile” export controls on rare-earth minerals, and said he saw “no reason” to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Today’s technically bearish weekly low close in corn futures will also embolden the speculative, chart-based bears to play the short side early next week.
World Weather Inc. today said some recent rain disrupted corn harvesting, but limited precipitation over the next 9-10 days from the U.S. Delta into the eastern Midwest “will ensure that fieldwork advances well once again. Some periodic rain in the northwestern corn and soybean production areas may disrupt fieldwork periodically.” Meantime, South America weather will remain very good for planting in Argentina and good for crop development and some fieldwork in southern Brazil. Rain is needed in center-west and center-south Brazil and some of that will evolve this weekend into next week. Field progress in Brazil suggests planting has advanced relatively well in light of the limited rainfall of the past few weeks.
30-day outlook: A sideways trading range in corn futures has been featured since the Oct. 1 U.S. government shutdown. Under normal circumstances, this week would have included USDA’s October production and WASDE reports. However, the extended U.S. lawmaker impasse on reopening the government may see the data void continue for some time to come. That’s not bullish for the grains.
90-day outlook: The bright spot for corn is that recent export demand for U.S. corn has been good, which may keep a floor under corn futures prices in the coming months.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 15 1/2 cents to $10.06 3/4, nearer the session low and on the week down 11 1/4 cents. December soybean meal fell $1.90 to $275.00, near the daily low and for the week down $3.60. December bean oil fell 97 points to 49.97 cents, nearer the session low and for the week down 8 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market today absorbed the brunt of a body blow to the grain markets as President Trump said on social media there is no reason for him to meet with China President Xi Jinping after the two countries exchanged fresh trade jabs today that further eroded U.S.-China relations. Just yesterday Trump said at his scheduled meeting with Xi later this month that U.S. soybean sales to China would be a top priority. That all seemed to evaporate today. One bright spot is the soybean meal futures market, which today only suffered slight losses—suggesting there is good value-buying demand for meal at present prices. Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes in November soybeans and December bean oil are negatives heading into trading early next week.
30-day outlook: Reports of varying yields and low interior basis levels have kept bean movement minimal in harvest and have pushed domestic crushers to bid up in search of soybeans to meet daily capacity. While firmer cash basis levels may be short lived, it is notable as harvest is in full swing.
World Weather Inc. today said today limited precipitation in the Midwest over the next 9-10 days from the U.S. Delta into the eastern Midwest “will ensure that fieldwork advances well once again. Some periodic rain in the northwestern corn and soybean production areas may disrupt fieldwork periodically.” Meantime, South America weather will remain very good for planting in Argentina and good for crop development and some fieldwork in southern Brazil. Rain is needed in center-west and center-south Brazil and some of that will evolve this weekend into next week. Field progress in Brazil suggests planting has advanced relatively well in light of the limited rainfall of the past few weeks.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a nine-week high and had the best weekly performance in a year. The USDX is now trending higher, suggesting a major bottom is in place and that the index can continue to trend up in the coming months. That will make U.S soybeans less competitive on the world trade markets, which conduct most of their business in greenbacks.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 8 cents to $4.98 1/2, near the daily low and hit a contract low. For the week, December SRW was down 17 1/4 cents. December HRW wheat lost 6 3/4 cents to $4.83, near the daily low and set a contract low. December HRW was down 14 cents for the week. December spring wheat futures fell 5 1/4 cents to $5.51 3/4, nearer the daily low, and for the week down 8 cents .
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets suffered today as the corn and soybean markets took hits following news that President Trump will not meet with China President Xi Jinping later this month, as trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies unexpectedly further eroded late this week.
Technicals remain overall firmly bearish, which will keep the chart-based speculators looking to play the short sides of winter wheat futures in the near term. Wheat futures traders will be looking to the corn and soybean markets for near-term price direction.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and most of the soft wheat in the Midwest will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next 10 days, resulting in good planting, germination and emergence conditions. Some greater rain will be desired in the drier pockets. Canada’s eastern Prairies will get rain and snow Sunday into Monday delaying late season harvest progress while improving soil moisture. The snow is not expected to linger very long due to returning warmer temperatures next week. Rain expected in Ukraine this week and that likely in Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan this weekend into next week will be ideal for advancing winter crop planting and inducing improved emergence and establishment conditions, said the forecaster.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a nine-week high and had its best weekly performance in a year. With the USDX is now trending higher, such suggests a major bottom is in place and that the index can continue to trend up in the coming months. That’s bearish for U.S. wheat, making it less price-competitive on the world trade markets due to the more unfavorable exchange rate, as most world trade is conducted in U.S. dollars.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 63 points to 63.84 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a contract low. For the week, December cotton fell 146 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market slumped today on news President Trump threatened a “massive increase” of tariffs on goods from China, citing recent “hostile” export controls on rare-earth minerals, and said he saw “no reason” to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China was already avoiding buying U.S. ag products, and today’s deterioration in U.S.-China relations makes better Chinese demand for U.S. cotton unlikely anytime soon.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said a few showers and thunderstorms will occur in West Texas Monday and Tuesday may slow crop maturation and raise a little cotton quality concern, although the rain is unlikely to last very long and it may not be very heavy. The moisture source is a tropical cyclone that dissipates in Mexico and that could lead to greater than expected rain, but for now the moisture will be played down as a light and brief event. U.S. Delta and southeastern crops will experience a restricted rainfall pattern over the next week to 10 days, supporting crop maturation and some harvest progress. Recent rain in the northern Delta may have discolored some of the cotton and strung some of it out its bolls, but the lack of boll rot should have limited any production loss because of heavy rain. Some of the southwestern U.S. cotton will be subjected to a quality decline because of tropical moisture that is expected from the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla and more likely from Tropical Storm Raymond.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a nine-week high and is trending up, while Nymex crude oil futures today slumped to a four-month low. These two key “outside markets” for cotton are in a firmly bearish posture for cotton and may remain that way for a while. Currency trends tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets, suggesting the USDX will continue to trend up in the coming months. As for crude oil, many energy analysts have been saying they expect a glut of global crude oil supplies in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.