Corn
Price action: July corn rose 4 3/4 cents to $4.84, nearer the session high.
Fundamental outlook: Corn futures were able to deepen gains as the session progressed, shaking off a portion of recent losses. Solid technical support and rallying soybeans stirred buyers across the grain complex, with a downturn in the U.S. dollar and firmer crude also aiding in today’s gains. Moreover, USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report was rather friendly, with net sales totaling 1.15 MMT during the week ended April 17. While sales declined 26% on the week, they rose 1% from the four-week average and landed near the upper end of the pre-report range of 800,000 MT to 1.3 MMT. Shipments during the week were also notable at 1.78 MMT.
The biofuel buzz continues to loom, as the Advanced Biofuels Association (ABFA) met Wednesday with EPA officials to advocate for a higher 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO), citing record domestic production capacity. According to a Lipow Oil Associates report, U.S. producers generated nearly 4.9 billion gallons of advanced biofuels in 2024 and could reach 7.2 billion gallons in 2025.
World Weather Inc. reports most U.S. crop areas from the Great Plains through the Midwest and Delta to the interior southern states will receive rain. The forecaster notes The Delta and Tennessee river basin are looking wetter next week and into the second week of May, which may prolong planting delays.
Meanwhile, in Brazil rainfall is expected to be sufficient to maintain a good outlook for safrinha crop development in May after monsoonal rain ends.
Technical outlook: July corn recaptured Wednesday’s losses, with solid support serving at the 100-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, trading at $4.78 and $4.74 1/4. Bulls continue to grasp the near-term technical action, with today’s price action indicating the camp may have needed to take a healthy break after extending from the late March low. However, the camp will need to overcome psychological resistance at $5.00, which is backed by the Feb.19 high of $5.21 1/2 to maintain momentum. Initial support will continue to serve at the 100-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, with bears holding a focus on a breach of the 200-day moving average, currently trading at $4.60, then the March 28 low of $4.50 1/2.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans surged 11 3/4 cents to $10.62 and closed near session highs. July meal slid $1.90 to $296.70, nearer session lows. July bean oil surged 173 points to 50.07 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures surged higher today, breaking out of the recent sideways range and posting a bullish breakout on the daily bar chart. Reports that Japan is weighing buying more U.S. beans as part of a tariff deal appeared to be the catalyst that broke soybeans higher today, though bean futures have been looking for a reason to break out of the recent sideways range. While that report from Nikkei was a bullish development, China denying trade talks and this morning’s lackluster Export Sales report from USDA were both rather bearish. The marketplace shaking off those elements showcases the robust strength of the market and is a testament of recent strength.
USDA reported soybean export sales of 277,000 MT for the week ended April 17, down 50% from the previous week and 25% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the low end of pre-report expectations from 200,000 to 600,000 MT. Mexico led purchases of old-crop beans.
Weather continues to garner more attention as planting season is underway. Conditions were warm and dry for most of the Midwest mid-week, allowing for planting to advance throughout much of the Soy Belt, says World Weather Inc. Regular bouts of rain are expected over the next couple of weeks, though most of the rain is expected to be light enough to allow for planting to advance around the showers.
Technical analysis: July soybean futures boasted a bullish breakout on the daily bar chart today, rendering the technical advantage to the bulls. Next resistance stands at the 200-day moving average at $10.66 3/4, which sees little backing until the psychological $10.75 mark. On a break back lower, support stands at $10.59 then the April 11 close of $10.53, which is quickly backed by the psychological $10.50 mark.
July meal futures saw spread driven selling pressure today as soyoil surged higher. That marks the fifth consecutive lower close. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $295.0 on continued selling, which is reinforced by support at $290.3. Bulls are seeking to reclaim psychological $300.0 resistance on a bounce, which is in line with the 10-day moving average.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat rose 1 cent to $5.44 1/2, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week low early on. July HRW wheat rose 1/2 cent to $5.50 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a contract low early on. July spring wheat futures closed 3/4 cent higher to $6.07 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets are languishing at lower price levels and got very little traction from rallies in the corn and soybean futures markets today, nor from a lower U.S. dollar index or a risk-on trader and investor mentality in the general marketplace.
USDA this morning reported disappointing U.S. wheat export sales reductions of 145,000 MT for 2024-25. Net sales of 371,700 MT were reported for 2025-26.
Weather in U.S. winter wheat regions leans bearish, too. World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, more beneficial rainfall is expected in the next seven days “that will help to further rise topsoil moisture and improve conditions for winter wheat development and eventual summer crop planting.” Recent shower and thunderstorm activity in western parts of the region “have been helpful. However, the storms have been more erratic and scattered than producers would like and this pattern will likely continue, leaving some pockets of the west with a continued need for more rain,” said the forecaster. “The general trend for the region in the next two weeks is still good though and much improved over that of earlier in the season.” Meantime, in the northern Plains crop and field conditions in the next seven days will also improve due to precipitation across a majority of the region. The greatest precipitation will occur from a storm system Sunday through Monday. Less precipitation in the second week of the outlook will be good for greater fieldwork progress to occur, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the April high of $5.71. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.32 1/2. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $5.52 1/4 and then at $5.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.39 1/4 and then at $5.32 1/2.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $5.59 1/2 and then at $5.70. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.43 and then at $5.30.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton rose 14 points to 69.17 cents and closed near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures worked higher again today despite poor export sales and bearish rhetoric out of China. Today’s continuation higher despite bearish fundamental news is a bullish sign for the market and a potential sign that strength could be here to stay. Prices pushed above the late March highs as well, a technically bullish move. The U.S. dollar index reversed back lower today, rejecting off the key 100 “par” level, a bearish indication that dollar weakness is likely to stick around. USDA reported export sales of 109,800 bales today, which was down 46% from the previous week and 22% from the four-week average. Sales continue to be poor despite low prices, but the potential for trade deals with eastern Asia countries has sparked a renewed sense of optimism that has lifted futures here in the past few sessions. Shipments totaled 306,600 bales, which was down from last week and the four-week average, but not out of line of historical averages for this time of year.
Technical analysis: July cotton saw modest followthrough strength today as bulls maintain a modest technical advantage. The 100-day moving average at 69.05 cents remains a key pivot, though bulls are ultimately looking to close prices above the key psychological 70.00 cent mark. Bulls are seeking to hold tentative support at 68.75 cents, which is reinforced by support at 67.52 cents, the 40-day moving average.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.