Corn
Price action: December corn fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.19, near the session low. For the week, December corn lost 3 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn market bulls were being left for dead earlier this week but then posted a good recovery the last half of the week. More price strength early next week would suggest this week’s low of $4.10 1/2 in December corn may be a near-term low.
Combines are rolling in corn fields across the Midwest amid rapid harvest progress. That’s keeping commercial hedgers active and the corn futures market late this week appears to be absorbing the selling pressure fairly well.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. harvest weather will continue good through the next two weeks. Some rain is expected, although it will be infrequent and light enough to allow fieldwork to advance around the precipitation. The greatest rain may be from Kansas into Iowa and Wisconsin while the lower Midwest and Delta are driest for the longest periods of time. South America weather will remain very good for planting in Argentina and good for crop development and some fieldwork in southern Brazil. Rain is needed in center west and center-south Brazil and some of that will evolve after the next ten days of mostly dry weather.
Meanwhile, as harvest advances, corn yields continue to show effects of worse-than-expected southern rust and hot, dry conditions, while basis firms throughout much of the Midwest as barge freight sits at historically low levels.
30-day outlook: Corn futures closed out September lower, in line with the historical bearish bias. October looks better for bulls, despite conventional wisdom saying harvest selling would limit the upside. In the last 20 years, December corn has closed out October higher 13 times (65% of the time) for an average of 7.3% (about 30.5¢ at current prices) and lower seven times (35% of the time) for an average of 4.7% (19.6¢). That bias is even more bullish in the last decade, with prices closing higher seven times and lower three times.
Data collection and surveys for the October WASDE have ceased, along with USDA export sales data and weekly crop progress reports. This enhances market and trader uncertainties. That’s not bullish.
90-day outlook: Recent export demand for U.S. corn has been good, which is likely to keep a floor under corn futures prices in the coming months. New U.S. trade deals in the coming months would likely produce even more global demand for U.S. corn. This week’s upbeat post on U.S. soybeans by President Trump seemed to light a fire under corn bulls, too. Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet in about three weeks. A positive outcome would likely give a big psychological boost to grain market traders.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 5 3/4 cents to $10.18, near the session low and on the week up 4 1/4 cents. December soybean meal fell 70 cents to $278.60, near the daily low and for the week up $4.00. December bean oil fell 39 points to 50.05 cents, near the daily low and for the week down 14 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean meal market needed to perform before the soybean market could mount an upside price offensive. It appears meal may be making its move despite today’s mild late selling pressure. Soy complex bulls may be crimped next week by commercial hedge selling pressure as combines are rolling strong in soybean fields and harvest is progressing rapidly.
World Weather Inc. today said warm and mostly dry weather will continue in much of the Midwest through Saturday and crop maturation and harvest rates will be higher than usual before cooler temperatures arrive and rain increases from the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt and central and southern Wisconsin Sunday into Tuesday, with some showers Wednesday into Oct. 17. The expected rain during the next two weeks should not be heavy in many locations and mostly temporary interruptions to fieldwork are most likely to result while the moisture will benefit winter crop areas. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm in much of the Midwest into Sunday with some northwestern areas cooler Sunday before cooler air spreads across the region early next week and most areas see near normal temperatures during the middle to late part of next week. There is no risk of frost or freezes through this weekend with some frost and mostly light freezes in northern parts of the Corn Belt Monday into Wednesday.
30-day outlook: Soybeans ended September lower, as it’s seasonally the most bearish month of the year for nearby soybean futures. October has a bullish bias, with prices closing higher 12 times (60% of the time in the past 20 years for an average of 5.4% (54.5¢) and lower eight times (40% of the time) for an average of 3.4% (34.1¢). The last decade has the same bias, as prices have closed higher six times and lower four times. Gains outweigh losses in both corn and soybeans and production losses can often be found out in October.
90-day outlook: Soybean planting in Brazil is advancing. Weather and soybean growing conditions in South America will become an increasing focus as the calendar year winds down. U.S. trade deals will also remain in focus in the coming months—especially U.S.-China trade relations. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in late October.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 1/2 cent to $5.15 1/4, near mid-range and for the week down 4 1/2 cents. December HRW wheat lost 2 cents to $4.97, nearer the daily low and down 8 1/2 cents for the week. Spring wheat futures fell 3/4 of a cent to $5.59 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 8 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets showed some stabilization late this week, after setting contract lows Wednesday. Technicals remain overall firmly bearish, which will keep the chart-based speculators looking to play the short sides of winter wheat futures in the near term. Wheat futures traders will be looking to the corn and soybean markets for near-term price direction. The late-week rallies in corn and beans have given the wheat market bulls some hope that market bottoms in wheat may be in place, or close at hand.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, some needed rainfall will occur in the next seven days as a high pressure ridge at least temporarily breaks down. This will help allow a cold front to enter the region Saturday and then slowly advance from northwest to southeast, promoting thunderstorm activity. The rain will be greatest and locally significant from the northern Texas Panhandle through central Kansas. Subsoil moisture is still favorable in most areas. However, the upcoming rain will help increase topsoil moisture, which has notably declined in the past seven days due to dryness and unusual warmth. In the Northern Plains, an area of low pressure will promote a large area of rain and gusty winds to move across the region late Saturday into Sunday. This will cause some fieldwork delays. However, those delays should be short-lived. Drier weather with warmer-trending temperatures later in the outlook will be favorable for fieldwork again. The rain will be good for western production areas that are in need of more moisture to support winter crop establishment. More rain will be needed.
30-day outlook: October is historically the most bullish month out of the year for wheat futures, though that bias has become more neutral in recent years. Since 2005, December wheat has closed higher 11 times (55% of the time) for an average of 5.3% (about 27.3¢) and lower nine times (45% of the time) for an average of 7.1% (36.4¢). The last decade has prices closing higher six times and lower four times.
90-day outlook: Global wheat production prospects have improved amid expectations of good crops out of Brazil and Argentina. While weather in the U.S. has been favorable for planting, current prices are not much of an incentive for producers. Spring wheat futures carved yet another contract low this week as USDA’s final wheat production figures for the 2024-25 crop surpassed market expectations. Producers are preparing for the upcoming crop, but lacking fervor. Global demand for U.S. wheat is showing some promise, however.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 21 points to 65.30 cents and near mid-range. For the week, December cotton fell 110 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market saw short covering today but a price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart, to suggest the speculative bears will continue to press the short side early next week. A lack of USDA data or U.S. economic data due to the government shutdown may keep the cotton futures market constrained until the government reopens. The government closure and uncertainty of the matter favors the cotton futures market bears.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said not much significant rain is expected in the southern Plains during the next 10 days, allowing more harvest progress to be made and supporting the normal development and maturation of crops in west Texas. U.S. Delta crops will experience a mix of rain and sunshine during the next week to ten days slowing fieldwork infrequently. The precipitation is not likely to have much impact on fiber quality. The southeastern states will also experience dry biased conditions in this first week of the outlook, with a little more rain expected in the second week. Most of the southwestern U.S. will experience good weather for maturation and harvesting in the coming week.
90-day outlook: Positive elements for the cotton futures market in the coming months are likely to be a very resilient U.S. stock market, as U.S. stock indexes this week hit record highs. Lower U.S. and global interest rates in the coming months are also price-bullish for cotton, due to lower borrowing costs likely stimulating better consumer demand. U.S. trade with its major global counterparts will remain near the front burner of the cotton market. Improving U.S.-China trade relations in the coming months would be welcomed by cotton market bulls. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in late October.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.