Corn
Price action: December corn lost 13 1/2 cents to $4.74, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation from the specs today. While recent hot and dry weather has been less-than-ideal for the crops in the Corn Belt—and even likely crimped yields in the far northwestern Belt, traders today were unwilling to add premium amid an overall U.S. corn crop that is faring well moving past the half-way point of the growing season. Sharply lower crude oil prices today also weighed on corn futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.49 MMT during the week ended July 23, down 124,795 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within the pre-report range of 1.1 MMT to 1.625 MMT.
Farmers in Brazil’s center-south had harvested 60% of their 2026 second corn crop as of last Thursday, according to Agrural. That was up from 49% in the previous week, but eight percentage points behind year-ago.
World Weather Inc. today said “the bottom line to the two-week outlook remains favorable for crops across much of the Midwest and yield potentials should remain quite high through the period, with a close watch warranted on a timely rain event occurring Thursday into Saturday in the driest areas from eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota into western Iowa.” Another day of hot weather will impact many western and south-central parts of the Midwest today, stressing some crops, with the greatest stress in the aforementioned drier areas. Significant rain Thursday into Saturday from eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota to western and central Illinois will induce notable improvements in crop and soil conditions in the drier areas while bolstering soil moisture elsewhere. Much of the remainder of the Midwest will receive at least some rain that will be timely and will buy the crop more time before stress increases due to a lack of soil moisture. A drier weather pattern will occur Sunday into Aug. 10 and the showers that occur most days will slow drying rates, but much of the Midwest will dry down overall. There will be a growing need for rain towards the middle of the month, with much of the region still likely to have adequate soil moisture to support crops deep into the second week of August with some exceptions.
Corn traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which are expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 65% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 67% last week and 73% in the same condition one year ago at the same time.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. However, more selling pressure this week would likely negate the uptrend. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.92. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.80 and then at today’s high of $4.85. First support is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.65.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 39 3/4 cents to $12.13 3/4, nearer the daily low. September soybean meal lost $10.50 to $320.30, nearer the daily low. September soybean oil fell 262 points to 70.85 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures today saw heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation from the speculators. Bulls on this day were unwilling to add weather premium to futures prices, given recent gains and amid weather forecasts that are offering chances for scattered but beneficial showers in the Midwest over the next couple weeks.
Sharply lower crude oil prices today also weighed on soybean futures prices.
Bulls got no traction today on news USDA reported daily U.S. soybean sales of 132,000 MT to China and 126,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2026-27 marketing year. The agency this morning also reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 348,850 MT during the week ended July 23, up 29,828 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were near the upper end of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 420,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said heat and dryness in portions of the western corn and soybean belt will have the market concerned this week. However, most computer forecast models are offering a temporary reprieve from the hottest and driest conditions Wednesday through Friday in the upper Midwest, offering a short-term bout of relief and there may be another brief bout of relief next week.
Soybean traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which are expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 65% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 66% last week and 70% in the same condition one year ago at the same time.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage as prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at $12.25 and then at $12.35. First support is seen at $12.00 and then at $11.85.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend still in place on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $334.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at $325.00 and then at $330.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $318.20 and then at $315.00.
Bean oil saw a price uptrend on the daily bar chart negated today. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 72.87 cents and then at 73.30 cents. First support is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 69.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW lost 18 cents to $6.60, near the daily low. September HRW fell 16 1/4 cents to $7.29, near the daily low. September spring wheat futures fell 8 cents to $7.06 1/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation from the speculators. Lower corn and soybean prices and a big drop in crude oil prices today also worked to push winter wheat futures prices down.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 394,785 MT during the week ended July 23, up 165,024 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were near the upper end of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 400,000 MT.
Wheat traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which are expected to show the U.S. spring wheat crop in 51% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 53% last week and 49% in the same condition one year ago at the same time. U.S. winter wheat harvested as of Sunday is seen at 83% complete, while spring wheat harvest is seen at 1% completed.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, serious stress crops occurred during the weekend because of excessive heat and humidity. Partial relief is expected the remainder of this week in the central Plains, while the southern Plains remain excessively hot. Showers and thunderstorms will still pop up this week but their coverage and intensity will not be sufficient to counter evaporation. This will result in continued downward pressure on dryland summer crop yields. In the Northern Plains, excessive heat continues across that crop region, too. “Yield potentials are still coming down in spring wheat production areas from Montana into the Dakotas due to the heat, poor soil moisture and minimal rain. Continuing excessive heat could lead to additional production losses,” said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly the past two trading sessions. Bulls need to step up and show power soon, to keep their advantage. Price uptrends on the daily bar charts are now in jeopardy. Also, bearish broadening patterns have now formed on the daily bar charts for September SRW and HRW futures. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $7.11 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.30. First resistance is seen at $6.75 and then at today’s high of $6.82. First support is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.40.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $7.77 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.52 1/2 and then at $7.58. First support is seen at last week’s low of $7.17 1/2 and then at $7.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 90 points to 80.88 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw technical buying to keep the price uptrend alive on the daily bar chart. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace today also aided the cotton bulls, although a big sell off in crude oil prices did somewhat limit the upside in cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the southern Plains, hot to excessively hot temperatures and little rain during the weekend caused stress to cotton to increase as the soil dried out, while an area of beneficial but mostly light rain fell from northwestern parts of west Texas and the west-central and southwestern to the central and interior northeastern Panhandle. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place. Areas that received significant rain recently will have enough soil moisture to support dryland cotton for a while longer as the soil dries down, while the many areas that failed to receive significant rain will see increasing crop stress. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell recently in the Blacklands and the central and northern Coastal Bend while crop stress increases from south Texas into the southern Coastal Bend. Excessively hot temperatures stressed cotton in southern Arizona during the weekend, while a large part of the region received at least some rain, with much of the precipitation quickly lost to evaporation while the San Joaquin Valley was mostly dry.
Cotton futures traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the July high of 82.96 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 77.73 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 82.05 cents and then at the July high of 82.96 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 79.51 cents and then at 79.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.