Corn
Price action: December closed steady at $4.87 1/2, near mid-range and hit a two-month high early on. For the week, prices were up 20 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market paused to end the trading week, on some mild profit-taking pressure as the bulls paused to catch their breath. Prices are still trending up on the daily chart, which should keep the bulls in the driver’s seat next week. Any significant changes in the Corn Belt weather forecast coming Sunday night would likely be a market driver for corn early next week. Today’s solid losses in crude oil futures was also a negative for the grains. The winter wheat futures prices also fell under heavier selling pressure today. More downside price pressure in wheat would likely at least limit the upside in corn futures. Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said most of the Midwest will see two more weeks of favorable conditions for corn pollination and other crop development, and yield potential should be quite high in most areas into the first week of August, with some exceptions in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt where low soil moisture and periods of heat will stress crops. The eastern Dakotas and east-central and northeastern Nebraska into northwestern Iowa and western Minnesota should see the poorest conditions for crops as soil moisture there is mostly marginal to short and the region will not see much rain of significance through at least the next 10 days. Temperatures will not be hot through the period, but heat will stress crops in parts of the region Saturday into Monday. There is still some moisture in the soil and that should prevent rapid increase in crop stress and reductions in yields, but if rain does not increase soon notable production cuts are likely. Much of the remainder of the Midwest is likely to dry down overall during the next two weeks, but a lack of persistent heat, soil moisture in place, and at least some rain will ensure crops have adequate soil moisture to develop favorably into at least the first week of August.
90-day outlook: The Pro Farmer crop tour in late August will be coming into trader focus as the month of July ends. Corn futures were surprisingly not the price leader for the grains complex in a week where the pollination window is in full swing for the Midwest. With pollination issues largely localized at this time, it’s looking like a good corn U.S. corn crop will be harvested this fall. U.S. crop conditions remain remarkably steady overall, with USDA rating the crop 68% good to excellent as of last Sunday. The corn crop in the European Union and other foreign countries, however, was lowered by USDA last week, resulting in tighter global ending stocks that will be price supportive in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 9 3/4 cents to $12.53 1/2, nearer the daily high, hit a new contract high, and for the week 50 1/2 cents. September soybean meal gained $2.00 to $330.80, near mid-range, hit an eight-month high and for the week up $13.70. September bean oil fell 122 points to 73.47 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week down 46 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean and meal markets today rallied again as weather in the Midwest is heating up heading into the key growing month of August for most of the U.S. bean crop. Today’s solid losses in crude oil futures were a negative for the bean oil futures market. Monday afternoon’s updated weekly crop progress reports will be closely examined by soybean complex traders. Bullish traders will also be looking to see if USDA reports any fresh daily flash sales of U.S. soybeans next week, hoping China will continue to be a buyer. The pace of sales to China slowed somewhat, according to this week’s export sales report, but new-crop sales remain at their highest for this time of year since 2022.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said expanding crop stress is likely in the northern Plains and northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt over the next 10 days, resulting in some concern over yield potential. Most other areas in the Midwest have sufficient soil moisture to carry crops for a while. Some drying in the central Delta will need to be closely monitored. Also, some other weather forecasters are calling for hotter temperatures in the Midwest the second week in August. The late-August Pro Farmer crop tour will be a news highlight for the month.
90-day outlook: U.S.-China relations will remain near the front burner of the soy complex futures markets. Recent U.S. swipes at China for U.S. election meddling and fresh U.S. tariff threats have some soybean traders worried that a scheduled September meeting between President Trump and China President Xi Jinping may be cancelled by China. However, the Trump administration maintains the U.S.-China summit meeting in the U.S. is still a go. A positive outcome of the September meeting could mean more China purchases of U.S. ag commodities, including soybeans.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW wheat lost 18 1/4 cents to $6.78, nearer the daily low after hitting a contract high in overnight trade. For the week, September SRW was down 4 3/4 cents. September HRW wheat fell 14 1/2 cents to $7.45 1/4, nearer the daily low after hitting a contract high overnight. For the week, September SRW was up 13 cents. September spring wheat futures fell 15 3/4 cents to $7.14 1/4, near mid-range and for the week up 22 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets today saw heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation after prices scored contract highs overnight. Today’s price action produced technically bearish “key reversals” down on the daily bar charts, which are early technical clues of near-term market tops being in place. However, the bulls can correctly argue that weather markets in grains can produce higher daily volatility like today’s, and that technical signals in weather markets can become less reliable. Today’s solid losses in crude oil futures were also a negative for the grains.
Euronext wheat futures have fallen notably on reports that Ukraine was discussing mechanisms to keep vessels moving through its Big Odessa ports, raising hopes Black Sea exports may avoid major disruption, according to Reuters.
Russia’s IKAR consultancy said earlier today that it sees Russia’s 2026 grain crop at 139 MMT, down from its previous estimate of 142.5 MMT in June. The decrease came amid lowered forecasts for grain in wheat production in Siberia and the Urals.
FranceAgriMer rated the French corn crop as 38% good to excellent as of July 20, down from 40% from the previous week and 69% a year earlier.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said good harvest weather is occurring in the central U.S. Plains and in parts of the Midwest. The favorable harvest should continue through the next week to 10 days, despite a few showers and thunderstorms and brief delays. Spring wheat areas in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies are stressed and losing some yield potential. The lack of rain and continued warm to hot weather over the next 10 days will perpetuate this trend. Meantime, too much rain has been falling in parts of Russia’s New Lands, possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. Good winter crop harvest weather continues in Russia’s Southern Region and parts of Ukraine. Western Europe weather has been warm and dry promoting winter crop maturation and harvesting. Dryness this season did reduce yields. Northeastern Europe has trended cooler and wetter periodically this season, but sufficient bouts of warmth and drier weather have occurred, as well, keeping most crops in favorable shape. Southeastern Europe drying should help promote winter crop maturation and harvest progress. Rain may be needed in a few spring cereal areas of eastern Europe. China’s winter grain crop was suspected of being fair sized with the harvest advancing significantly. Spring wheat is developing well except in a few central areas of inner Mongolia where it has been a little dry.
90-day outlook: The prospect of reduced shipping volumes in Black Sea region will continue to be the main market driver in winter wheat. Global wheat ending stocks could potentially move lower from current levels once again, as most of Western Europe has seen hot and dry weather damage crops there. Persistent scorching temps in the U.S. Northern Plains are also likely to crimp spring wheat production this year. The effects of hot weather were finally reflected in USDA’s condition ratings, with the agency this week dropping the HRS good to excellent category by 5%.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 123 points to 79.98 cents, near the daily low and for the week up 135 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw profit-taking pressure heading into the weekend. Today’s solid losses in crude oil futures were also negative for cotton futures price action. Traders will be eyeing Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place. Areas that received significant rain recently will have enough soil moisture to support dryland cotton for a while longer as the soil dries down while the many areas that failed to receive significant rain will see increasing crop stress. A close watch will be made on July 31-Aug. 2, when some computer forecast models are predicting widespread rain with these models likely exaggerating rainfall potentials. The Blacklands, south Texas and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell last week in the Blacklands and the central and northern Coastal Bend, while crop stress increases from south Texas into the southern Coastal Bend. The San Joaquin Valley will be mostly dry through the next two weeks. Southern Arizona will see isolated to scattered showers most days during the next two weeks that will produce mostly light rain that will induce some temporary reductions in irrigations needs while excessive heat into Sunday will stress cotton.
90-day outlook: Price action in the major U.S. stock indexes has turned wobbly to slightly bearish recently. Meantime, retail gasoline prices at the pump are rising and back above $4 a gallon, on average. This does not bode well for better consumer confidence in the coming months, which in turn will influence consumer demand for apparel this fall. Still, better global demand and concerns over the U.S. crop outlook continue to provide fundamental support for cotton futures.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.