Corn
Price action: July corn futures closed 1 1/2 cents higher at $4.78 3/4 and right at mid-range. That still marked a 3 1/2 cent loss on the week.
5-day outlook: After sustaining sharp selling pressure earlier this week, corn futures continued yesterday’s rebound, eventually testing downtrend resistance stemming from the April highs. That downtrend resistance limited the upside today before prices eventually reversed lower and closed off intraday highs. While the underlying fundamentals that fueled the early April surge higher have not changed, bulls have struggled to build momentum on reports that several different nations are looking to build trade deals with the U.S. and increase their purchases of agricultural products. Bulls will ultimately look to challenge key resistance at $4.81, a close above which would indicate a technical breakout and look to challenge the April high of $4.90 3/4. The path of least resistance remains sideways to lower, but the tightening balance sheet and robust export demand despite tariffs, noted by today’s daily export sales to Mexico, are hard to ignore.
30-day outlook: Planters are rolling across the Midwest for most part, with plantings increasing at a rapid clip in the western portion of the Corn Belt. Rains are expected to continue over most of the Midwest here in the next couple of weeks, though will be light and sporadic enough for fieldwork to continue around rains, says World Weather Inc. Still, some eastern portions of the Corn Belt will see delays and need a break from rains in order to get the crop in at a decent time. How plantings continue over the next couple of weeks will be key and we will be keeping a close eye on the weekly Crop Progress Reports from USDA.
90-day outlook: Tariffs and trade continue to be the major market mover as the growing season progresses. Just this afternoon Trump said another tariff pause is unlikely after the current 90-day pause ends. While bearish today, it is hard to say if the President will have the same feelings once that deadline approaches and it is difficult to say how trade talks will progress over that period. Recent reports, such as we mentioned in newsletters earlier today, noted that Indonesia, South Korea, India and Japan are all looking to build deals with the U.S. and each referenced higher agricultural purchases. Each of those countries is a buyer of either corn and/or ethanol. Exports have remained quite strong to end the old-crop marketing year, but one has to look at expected abundant new-crop supplies as the growing season progresses.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 2 3/4 cents to $10.59 1/4 but gained 11 1/2 cents on the week. July meal rose $1.80 to $298.50 but marked a$4.60 weekly loss, while July soyoil fell 26 points to 49.81 cents, rising 147 points on the week.
5-day outlook: Soybeans had a big week, having scored a close above the technically difficult 200-day moving average on Thursday, with today’s session holding entirely above the level, a first since July 13, 2023 on the continuous chart. Last week’s Commitment of Traders Report showed outright managed money positions notched the largest increase since 2020, which exhibited elevated near-term confidence in bull efforts. Recent fund length and ensuing price action are indicative that soybeans will continue to experience support, though overbought conditions could lead to a healthy retreat before an advance higher. Moreover, a greater de-escalation in trade tensions with China could certainly underpin recent gains, the uncertainties remain, so caution is warranted.
30-day outlook: USDA reported soybean plantings were 8% complete as of April 20, a six-point weekly advance, which implied efforts were three-points ahead of the five-year average. However, the weather will dictate those efforts over the coming weeks. World Weather Inc. reports that regular rounds of rain will occur throughout the next two weeks, though much of it will be light enough to allow for planting to advance in many areas during drier periods. The northwestern Corn Belt will see little precip into Saturday, allowing fieldwork to advance well with rain advertised for Saturday night into Tuesday, bolstering soil moisture. Recent rains in the lower Midwest and Delta have increased the likelihood of acreage switches and/or abandonment in the northern Delta, western Tennessee and Kentucky.
90-day outlook: Trade deal musings have filled the marketplace over the past several days, as have increasing notions of new biofuels policies from Washington. However, some concrete evidence will need to be provided soon in order to provide longer-term support to the soy complex. While China has contested recent claims from the White House, which showed optimism around a potential trade deal in the wake of recent tensions, other countries like South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, India, the U.K and European Union have expressed interest in trade deals ahead of the impending tariff deadline. If achieved, this could prove noteworthy for future demand, and a fresh biofuel mandate would certainly prove complementary.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat futures rose 1/2 cent to $5.45, near mid-range and for the week down 17 1/4 cents. July HRW wheat gained 1/4 cent to $5.51, near mid-range and on the week down 19 cents. July HRS futures fell 1 1/2 cents to $6.06 1/4 and gave up 13 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat market bulls took a beating this week and bearish charts don’t offer much encouragement for trading action next week. Traders will closely examine Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA Crop Progress report but weather in U.S. wheat country leans price-bearish at present. World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW wheat regions, “more beneficial rainfall in the next seven to ten days will further improve conditions in the region.” However, some crop moisture stress concerns remain in western production areas, particularly eastern Colorado, northwestern Kansas, and parts of Nebraska. Rain should occur in the entire region, but the least amount is likely in the west. The greatest rainfall is expected in central and eastern production areas of Oklahoma and this could lead to some flooding. Follow-up rainfall in the second week of the outlook will be mostly beneficial, said World Weather. Meantime, in the Northern Plains crop and field conditions in the next seven days “are still expected to improve due to meaningful precipitation in a majority of the region. One possible exception is northern Montana and northwestern North Dakota. The precipitation will increase topsoil moisture and lead to a better environment for crop development.”
30-day outlook: President Trump late this week said his administration will announce trade deals over the next three to four weeks. Some countries “may come back and ask for an adjustment, and I’ll consider that,” Trump told Time magazine. Importantly for the grain markets, trader and investor risk appetite improved late this week, evidenced by this week’s rallies in the U.S. stock indexes to three-week highs. Continued rebounds in the stock indexes would likely at least keep a floor under wheat prices. However, another slump in the U.S. stock market would likely bring out the speculative wheat market bears in force, pushing wheat futures prices to new for-the-move lows. Wheat traders will continue to closely monitor the latest developments on the U.S. trade front, as well as the health of the U.S. stock market.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported disappointing U.S. wheat export sales reductions of 145,000 MT for 2024-25. Net sales of 371,700 MT were reported for 2025-26. The U.S. dollar index this week dropped to a three-year low, which does make U.S. wheat more price-competitive on the world market. However, weekly U.S. wheat export sales tallies will need to improve if wheat futures markets are to sustain any price uptrends. Meantime, USDA this week reported U.S. spring wheat plantings were ahead of normal in all but Minnesota and Washington, while top producer North Dakota was double its five-year average planting pace. Weather will be in focus in the coming months as the U.S. spring wheat growing season advances.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 37 points to 68.80 cents but notched a 167-point weekly gain.
5-day outlook: July cotton futures edged to a more than nine-week high in overnight trade, though a corrective pullback ensued and the natural fiber ended the day only modestly lower. This week’s midweek surge allowed bulls to forge a close above the 100-day moving average for the first time since Nov. 11, though today’s settle was shy of the level. Cotton futures have experienced strength amid heightened risk on sentiments as the marketplace amid seemingly abating concerns around a global fallout over President Trump’s tariff policies. However, look for traders to advance with caution, as uncertainties continue to loom.
30-day outlook: USDA reported cotton plantings advanced to 11% complete as of April 20, which was a six-point weekly advance, indicating plantings were on par with the five-year average. However, the weather will continue to prove noteworthy as the planting and growing season progress. World Weather Inc. notes planting prospects in West Texas are improving greatly, with frequent rainfall over the next three weeks will support planting and germination efforts. Meanwhile, South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend will receive rain after May 4. The Delta continues to face excessive soil moisture in areas, which is expected to prevail, limited field progress. Meanwhile, the southeastern corner of the U.S. will see some of the best planting weather, along with some areas in California and the southwestern desert region.
90-day outlook: Demand for U.S. cotton will continue to be the longer-term market driver. Weekly export sales for the week ended April 17 proved quite dismal, especially amid recent musings of a potential uptick in purchases from Pakistan and Bangladesh in attempt to avoid President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Net upland cotton sales declined 49% from the previous week and slid 22% from the four-week average. Moreover, domestic demand will also be closely monitored as inflationary conditions persist, keeping interest rates elevated and pressuring disposable incomes and ultimately demand for durable goods made with cotton. Look for the marketplace to continue to sit on edge as effects of recent tariff policies become more evident.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.