Cotton producers: Advance crop sales… Cotton futures have set back from multi-year highs amid a move lower across the ag complex. Fundamental support looks wary as the export book is slim and domestic use is light. We advise producers to take advantage of the rally and sell another 10% of expected 2026 production. You should now be 70% foward sold on anticipated 2026 production. We look to initiate 2027 sales soon.
Corn
Price action: December corn fell 2 3/4 cents to $5.40 3/4, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term speculators today. However, the bulls once again stepped in to buy the earlier dip in prices to push them well off daily lows. A sharp drop in the U.S. dollar index today and firmer crude oil prices were also bullish outside-market elements for corn futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales reductions of 829,600 MT during the week ended Aug. 27 for the 2025-26 marketing year. Meanwhile, new-crop sales totaled 1.986 MMT. Analysts expected old-crop sales to range from net reductions of 200,000 MT to 200,000 MT and new crop sales to run from 500,000 MT to 1.6 MMT.
The European Union is looking “at all possible lanes” to support grain exports from Ukraine and is working to blunt the financial impact of extreme weather on farmers, EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen told Bloomberg in an interview.
World Weather Inc. today said harvesting safrinha corn in Brazil will be slowed by rain at times during the next two weeks, with the focus of rain likely to shift often enough to allow some fieldwork to advance and prevent extended delays to farming activity. Rain will increase and expand today into Sept. 12 and regular rain will occur from Paraguay and western into central and parts of northeastern Brazil where increases in soil moisture improve conditions for early summer crop planting. Rain in Parana and central Brazil will be highly beneficial for the corn-planting season.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $5.49 3/4 and then at $5.55. First support is seen at $5.30 and then at today’s low of $5.26 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans gained 6 cents to $13.16 1/4, nearer the daily high. December soybean meal rose $5.90 to $355.50, near the daily high and hit another two-year high. December soybean oil fell 92 points to 70.04 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets today saw some modest early selling pressure, but the bulls stepped in to buy the dips and do some perceived bargain hunting. Sellers remain timid amid continued demand from China. USDA this morning reported daily sales of 192,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during 2026-27. In its weekly export sales report, USDA reported net U.S. soybean sales reductions of 94,200 MT for 2025-26. Net new-crop sales totaled 1.948 MMT. Analysts expected old-crop sales to range from net reductions of 200,000 MT to 200,000 MT and new-crop sales from 1.4 to 2.5 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Monday in the northwestern Corn Belt, where soybeans will benefit from the rain. Much of the remainder of the northern and eastern Midwest will also receive at least some rain. Some soybeans and corn in the northwestern Corn Belt will see small increases in yields after the coming rain with the precipitation too late for a major boost in production. Little rain and hot temperatures will occur into early next week from the southwestern into the south-central Corn Belt, favoring crop maturation and early harvesting, with subsoil moisture adequate to support most late crop development.
Technical analysis: November soybeans are still overbought on a short-term technical basis and due for a significant corrective pullback soon. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $13.24 and then at $13.35. First support is seen at $13.00 and then at $12.90.
Soybean meal sees a solid price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $375.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $337.30. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $356.00 and then at $360.00. First support is seen at $350.00 and then at today’s low of $344.50.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 73.00 cents and then at the July high of 73.82 cents. First support is seen at 71.00 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 19 3/4 cents to $7.54 1/4, near mid-range. December HRW lost 18 3/4 cents to $8.15 1/2, near mid-range. December spring wheat futures fell 16 1/2 cents to $7.65 1/2, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some profit taking and weak long liquidation following news that
Russian President Vladimir Putin cited the possibility of a peace deal with Ukraine. He also noted that restarting talks is harder after Ukrainian attacks on shipping. A Ukraine government official also hinted that peace talks may have a better chance of taking place.
Asian wheat importers have purchased at least a half million metric tons of Australian and Argentinian wheat in recent deals, as buyers scramble to replace Black Sea cargoes amid attacks on vessels and grain export infrastructure, according to Reuters who cited trade sources.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 313,500 MT during the week ended Aug. 27, down 22% from the previous week and down 7% from the four-week average. Net sales were short of analysts’ pre-report range of expectations from 350,000 to 650,000 MT.
World weather today said rain is needed in winter wheat production areas in the U.S. Plains, western and southeastern Europe, Ukraine and Russia’s southern Region, but there is plenty of time for this to evolve. There may eventually be need for greater rain in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin. Australia’s wheat and barley is still rated well in the south while that in Queensland and northern New South Wales will likely underperform this year because of El Nino heat and dryness. Spring wheat harvesting in China, Canada and the northern U.S. Plains is advancing relatively well. There is need for drier weather in parts of Russia and some areas in Canada where rain has been disrupted by rain periodically. Argentina’s wheat establishment has likely advanced well. Some rain is needed in the western production areas. Southern Brazil wheat is rated favorably. Northern Brazil crops have developed well and harvesting has begun.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.85. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.76 and then at the contract high of $7.95. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.30 1/2 and then at $7.20.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $9.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.36 and then at the contract high of $8.58 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.97 1/4 and then at $7.92 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 248 points to 86.45 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw more heavy profit-taking pressure that now is beginning to suggest the bulls are exhausted and that a near-term market top is in place. Cotton bulls could get no help from a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar index today and firmer crude oil prices.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. cotton export sales totaling 27,500 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027, primarily for India (10,800 RB), Vietnam (10,800 RB) and Bangladesh (5,200 RB). Exports of 189,500 RB were primarily to Vietnam (77,300 RB), India (22,200 RB) and Pakistan (17,800 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see net increases in crop stress and declines in yields through the next two weeks as hot temperatures will continue through at least the next week and rain will be too light and infrequent to induce more than brief improvements in crop and soil conditions. Stress to crops will be briefly eased in small areas by light showers that occur most days into this weekend with crops also benefitting from some cooling late next week into the following weekend along with some showers Sep. 10-12. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through most of the next two weeks and stress to developing cotton will steadily increase as the soil dries out while cotton maturation and harvesting occurs in a mostly favorable environment. The remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard will bring showers to the Blacklands today into Friday.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the contract high of 93.74 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 84.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 88.00 cents and then at today’s high of 89.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 86.10 cents and then at 85.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.