Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 3/4 cent to $4.62 3/4, near mid-range and hit a three-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw mild technical buying featured today as prices are now trending higher on the daily bar chart. Gains were pared late in the session as wheat and soybean futures sold off..
USDA reported daily sales of 130,000 MT to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year.
On tap Thursday morning is the weekly USDA export sales report. A DowJones Newswires survey showed grain analysts expect U.S. corn sales of 1.0 million to 1.8 million MT in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said much of the Midwest will see little precipitation of significance today and planting will increase before much of the Midwest sees two rounds of precipitation and delays to planting tonight into Monday. The far northwestern Corn Belt will miss much of the significant precipitation into Friday. The driest areas from northeastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota to southwestern Minnesota will receive significant precipitation Sunday and beneficial increases in soil moisture will result. Meantime, concern is building in safrinha corn areas of Brazil because of low soil moisture and limited rainfall, notes World Weather Inc. This is most evident in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and Sao Paulo.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, recent price gains suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the April low of $4.48 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.61 and then at $4.55.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 10 3/4 cents to $11.79 1/2, near the daily low after hitting a five-week high early on. July soybean meal fell $4.90 to $316.30, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low. July soybean oil lost 65 points to 71.00 cents, near the daily low and hit a contract high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market could not hold overnight gains and saw price pressure today amid continued weakness in the soybean meal futures market.
On tap Thursday morning is the weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. will slow down in the heart of the Midwest and Delta next week because of more frequent and significant rain. Drought in the southeastern states will remain, although some scattered showers are possible next week.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.01 1/4 and then at $12.10. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.77 and then at last week’s low of $11.68.
Soybean meal bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $323.90 and then at this week’s high of $327.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $316.00 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 74.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 65.35 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 72.64 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at 70.00 cents and then at Tuesday’s low of 69.11 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 5 3/4 cents to $6.07, nearer the session low after hitting a three-week high early on. July HRW lost 5 3/4 cents to $6.50, near the daily low. September spring wheat futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $6.81.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw profit-taking from the shorter-term speculators today. A late sell off in the soy complex also spilled over into selling in the wheat markets.
On tap Thursday morning is the weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country rain is still expected to increase in the region in the next seven days. However, net drying will continue in the southwestern 30% of the region. The Texas Panhandle into southwestern Kansas and southeastern Colorado will receive little to no rain. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be enough for “some” topsoil moisture improvement in production areas further east and north. Any rain will be beneficial, but a general need for more will continue in order for the best production potential. In the Northern Plains, a strong area of low pressure will still affect the region today into Friday with both rain and snow. The precipitation won’t be widespread. Some thunderstorms will occur in central and eastern production areas and snow will be limited mostly to Montana.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.36. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.20 1/2 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.98 1/2 and then at $5.90.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.63. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $6.63 and then at $6.75. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.41 1/2 and then at $6.30.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures lost 222 points to 78.64 cents, near the daily low after hitting another two-year high early on today.
Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures today saw a big and bearish technical key reversal down on the daily bar chart, which is one chart clue that a market top is now in place. Heavy profit-taking pressure was featured following strong recent gains. Follow-through selling pressure on Thursday would better confirm the bearish key reversal from today. Cotton bulls were especially disappointed in the sell off today, given the risk-on trader/investor attitudes in the general marketplace at midweek.
On tap Thursday morning is the weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico showers recently were welcome and good for crop development, though much more rain was needed. Some increasing rainfall is expected during the next couple of weeks. West Texas will see some improving opportunity for showers in the high and low Plains during May. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture, but not much is expected for a while. The Delta will start getting more timely rainfall this weekend and next week, although a full recovery to normal soil moisture is unlikely. The southeastern U.S. will continue in drought this week with some rain expected next week that may offer temporary improvements.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart. However, today’s bearish key reversal down on the daily chart is a warning signal of a market top being in place. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at today’s high of 81.79 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 79.00 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at 77.50 cents and then at 77.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.