Corn
Price action: December corn rose 10 3/4 cents to $5.08, near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Slow U.S. corn harvest progress was also supportive to futures prices, as was a weaker U.S. dollar index today.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 54% good to excellent, as of Oct 3, down three percentage points from the previous week. Harvest was estimated to be 23% complete, up five percentage points on the week, but four points behind the five-year average.
World Weather Inc. today said a big change toward drier weather is coming this week and possibly into the coming weekend in the U.S. Midwest, Delta and Great Plains. The new environment will be ideal for maturing crops in a better environment and promoting better harvest conditions for some areas. Rain coming to Brazil in the next 10 days will eventually support more aggressive planting and emergence in center-west, although southern Brazil is likely to be a little too wet at times delaying fieldwork for a while and possibly raising the potential for replanting. Center-west planting and establishment conditions should improve as rain falls more periodically.
Technical analysis: December corn sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart to better suggest a near-term market top is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.25. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.92. First resistance is seen at $5.10 and then at $5.15. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.95 and then at $4.92.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 22 1/4 cents to $13.03, near the daily high. December soybean meal gained $7.70 to $354.80, near the daily high. December soybean oil gained 56 points to 69.91 cents, near the daily high and closed at a three-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets today saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting from the speculators, following recent selling pressure. A weaker U.S. dollar index today also aided the bulls. Slow U.S. harvest progress also favors the bullish camp.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 57% good to excellent as of Oct. 3, down one percentage point from the previous week. Harvest was estimated to be 25% complete, up eight points on the week but eight points behind the five-year average.
Brazil’s soybean crushing capacity rose 13% in 2026 from the previous year to 86.4 MMT annually, according to Abiove earlier today. The expansion reflects stronger demand for soybean oil, the main feedstock for Brazil’s biodiesel industry, and for soybean meal.
World Weather Inc. today said although rain has been increased for this weekend since Monday’s forecast, most of the next two weeks is still expected to be dry across the Midwest. Harvesting of crops will occur rapidly in most areas during the next two weeks, with some additional drying time needed before aggressive fieldwork occurs in the wetter areas from northeastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska into southern Michigan.One round of nearly widespread rain is expected next Monday into Thursday, when the rain should not be heavy enough to cause lasting delays to fieldwork.
Technical analysis: November soybeans still see a fledgling downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support atlast week’s high of $13.22 1/2 and then at $13.35 1/4. First support is seen last week’s low of $12.73 1/4 and then at $12.56 1/2.
Soybean meal sees a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $337.30. First resistance comes in at $357.60 and then at $360.00. First support is seen $350.00 and then at this week’s low of $344.20.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 70.04 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 68.77 cents and then at 68.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 12 cents to $7.04 1/4, near the daily high. December HRW gained 14 cents to $7.56 1/4, near the daily high. December spring wheat futures rose 11 3/4 cents to $7.19 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets saw more short-covering and some perceived bargain hunting today. Better buying interest also comes as Russian attacks on Ukraine’s industrial and port infrastructure in Ukraine’s Odessa region continue, while Ukraine is also striking back at Russia’s grain infrastructure.A weaker U.S. dollar index today also favored the wheat market bulls.
USDA Monday afternoon estimated 36% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was planted as of Oct. 4, up nine percentage points on the week, but 10 points behind the five-year average.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment will improve greatly in the next 10 days due to recent rain and the anticipated sunnier and warm-biased weather that is forthcoming. Western Europe continues to struggle for wheat and barley planting moisture, but improvements are likely in the next week except in northwestern France and southern parts of the U.K. where rain will be quite limited. Eastern Europe will be drier biased for a while favoring winter crop planting, but greater rain will soon be needed to support the best possible emergence and establishment. The Black Sea region is also expecting a generally dry biased pattern for a while. Rain will soon be needed in eastern Europe and the Black Sea region. Southern Australia is also expected to produce quite well this season due to timely rainfall over the next couple of weeks. Argentina’s wheat has benefited from recent rain and that which is expected later this workweek. Southern Brazil wheat is rated favorably; however, rainy weather in the next ten days will delay harvesting, slow maturation and may reduce grain quality across Parana and a few neighboring areas.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $7.03 and then at $7.15. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.70 3/4 and then at $6.60.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $7.62 3/4 and then at $7.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.38 1/4 and then at last week’s low of $7.29.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 35 points to 81.21 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw more short covering and perceived bargain buying today. Gains in the grains today, as well as a rally in the U.S. stock indexes this week, supported better buying interest in cotton futures. The weaker U.S. dollar index today also supported the cotton futures market.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop at 23% harvested as of Sunday. The crop was 74% bolls opening. The crop was reported in 37% poor to very poor condition, 30% fair and 33% good to excellent condition.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will benefit from drier weather through much of the next two weeks that will allow some cotton fibers to be bleached white and for harvesting to accelerate.A few light showers will occur infrequently.
The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see a drier weather pattern through the next two weeks and harvesting in the Blacklands should advance well around some infrequent showers while much of the cotton in the Coastal Bend and South Texas has been harvested with these regions likely to see additional showers into Thursday.Rain may return to a large part of the region Oct. 13-16.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures still see prices trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 84.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at 82.00 and then at 82.50 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 78.77 cents and then at last week’s low of 77.05 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.