Corn
Price action: December corn fell 20 1/2 cents to $4.79 3/4, nearer the daily low, hit a two-month low and for the week down 18 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market got gut-punched by another surprisingly bearish USDA report today. The agency raised its U.S. corn crop estimate 234 million bu. from last month. The average U.S. corn yield increased 2.7 bu. to 181.2 bu. per acre—way above market expectations. New-crop corn carryover at 1.849 billion bu. is up 282 million bu. from last month and is 179 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA put the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.70, down a dime from last month.
Today’s technically bearish weekly low close suggests more chart-based selling in corn futures early next week. Traders will continue to monitor the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoon.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said harvesting of crops will occur rapidly in most areas during the next two weeks around two rounds of organized rain, while a steady ramping up of fieldwork will occur in the wetter areas from northeastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska into southern Michigan. Southeastern Missouri to Kentucky, Ohio, and portions of southeastern Michigan will receive rain this weekend when the remnants of Hurricane Isaias impact the region. The next round of well-organized rain will occur Tuesday into next Friday when the rain should not be heavy enough to cause lasting delays to fieldwork with southwestern to central areas wettest.
Harvesting, which got a late start in the western Corn Belt, and the related commercial hedge pressure has ramped up, which will add to selling pressure in corn futures. The strong U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market will also be a headwind for the grain futures markets in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: Mexico making flash sales with delivery across multiple years, are positive signs that corn may be seeing better export demand in the coming months. Attention in the coming months will turn from abundant U.S. supplies to potentially better export demand for U.S. corn.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 4 1/2 cents to $12.92, nearer the daily high and hit a six-week low early on. For the week, November beans were up 13 3/4 cents. December soybean meal rose $8.00 to $356.60, near the daily high and for the week up $18.10. December bean oil rose 10 points to 68.02 cents, near mid-range and for the week down 60 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean and meal futures markets today saw late-session rallies that took prices from below unchanged to higher and near their daily highs. USDA today raised its U.S. soybean crop estimate 27 million bu. from last month, at a record high, and slightly above market expectations. The average U.S. soybean yield rose 0.3 bu. to 53.1 bu. per acre, also slightly above expectations. USDA pegged new-crop U.S. soybean carryover at 315 million bu. is up 5 million bu. from last month and 10 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total new-crop supplies were increased 17 million bu. from last month with a bigger crop estimate more than offsetting the decrease to beginning stocks. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2026-27 at $12.00, unchanged from last month.
Sharply lower corn and wheat futures prices today did limit the upside in soybeans. Monday afternoon comes the weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said drying in the U.S. Midwest is welcome and good for the maturation and harvest of summer grain and oilseed crops. Rain from tropical storm Isaias will impact the lower Midwest this weekend causing delays to farming activity. A cool front next week will bring a little more rain to the U.S. Midwest before drier weather finally resumes. Rain coming to Brazil in the next 10 days will eventually support more aggressive planting and emergence in center-west, although southern Brazil is likely to be a little too wet at times delaying fieldwork for a while and possibly raising the potential for replanting. Center-west planting and establishment conditions should improve as rain falls more periodically.
90-day outlook: Quality concerns for the harvested U.S. soybean crop have arisen from the unseasonably wet weather that most of the Midwest has seen the past month. Global palm oil production is expected to decline this year due to the impacts from El Nino. Given the commodity can act as a substitute for soy oil, tightening supplies could increase demand for other oilseeds. Planting in Brazil was estimated at 7.3% complete according to AgRural, as attention heading into the end of the year will shift to weather conditions in South American soybean regions.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 12 1/4 cents to $6.71, nearer the session low, hit a two-month low and for the week down 12 cents. December HRW wheat lost 17 cents to $7.19 1/4, nearer the session low, hit a two-month low and for the week down 16 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 10 3/4 cents to $6.95 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 2 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw USDA today forecast U.S. wheat carryover for 2026-27 at 740 million bu., up 23 million bu. from last month and 19 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA raised total supply by 8 million bu. due to a 3-million bu. bump to production and a 5-million-bu. increase in estimated imports. USDA put the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2026-27 at $6.30, down a dime from last month.
Big losses in corn futures markets today also spilled over into the wheat markets. The strong U.S. dollar index that was poised to close at a 1.5-year high close today has also been a bearish weight on the wheat markets.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said U.S. winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment will improve greatly in the next 10 days due to recent rain and the anticipated sunnier and warm-biased weather that is forthcoming. Western Europe continues to struggle for wheat-planting moisture, but improvements are likely in the next week except in northwestern France and southern parts of the U.K. where rain will be quite limited. Eastern Europe will be drier biased for a while, favoring winter crop planting, but greater rain will soon be needed to support the best possible emergence and establishment. The Black Sea region is also expecting a generally dry biased pattern for a while. Rain will soon be needed in eastern Europe and the Black Sea region.
90-day outlook: U.S. weekly wheat exports were up significantly in the latest USDA weekly export sales report, totaling 451,600 MT across all classes. That was up 56% from the week prior and the second-highest this marketing year. The firming U.S. dollar makes U.S. wheat less attractive but given issues getting crops from the Black Sea to market, foreign buyers face limited options. U.S. spring wheat may continue to be supported by the production cut the class received last week from USDA and Europe’s poor harvest this year.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 60 points to 80.54 cents, near mid-range and for the week up 166 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw USDA increase its U.S. cotton crop estimate by 241,000 bales from last month. The yield was raised 14 lbs. to 790 lbs. per acre. Old-crop cotton carryover is unchanged from last month. USDA made no changes to the old-crop supply or demand estimates from September. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2023-24 at 62.2 cents, up 0.2 cent from last month. New-crop cotton carryover is up 200,000 bales from last month. USDA boosted total supplies 240,000 bales from last month due to the larger domestic crop production estimate. USDA left the demand side of the balance sheet mostly unchanged. USDA put the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2026-27 at 77 cents, down a penny from last month.
The near-term technical posture for cotton remains bearish, with a price downtrend on the daily bar chart in place, which will keep the chart-based bears confident early next week.
World Weather Inc. today said hurricane Isaias will make landfall late today near the Alabama and Florida border, producing maximum sustained winds near 85 mph with stronger gusts seriously impacting the cotton crop in the Southeast, with quality declines in expected in many areas along with some losses due to blowout and stringing out of cotton fibers from the boll. Isaias will move quickly to the north after landfall and its winds should still be strong enough to cause at least some cotton blowout from southwestern to south-central Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle while winds from the storm are not likely to seriously threaten the crop elsewhere. Cotton discoloration is likely in many areas across the northern Delta and the Southeast with additional stringing out likely where heavy rain fell recently in southern Alabama and southern Georgia with some pockets of stringing out possible elsewhere in the Southeast as well.
Cotton AWP posted a fifth weekly decline. The adjusted world price fell to 63.81 cents per pound. USDA also announces a 24,479-bale import quota. Traders will be eyeing Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: U.S. harvest is running slightly ahead of normal, while a stronger dollar has made the U.S. fiber more expensive overseas. Meantime, down-trending crude oil prices have cheapened polyester. Weak export demand has capped momentum.
90-day outlook: The U.S. stock indexes are near their recent record highs, which is a positive for consumer confidence heading into the fall/holiday apparel-buying season. However, U.S. interest rates are on the rise amid inflation that is nearly problematic. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise U.S. interest rates by another quarter-point before the end of the year. Also, gasoline prices near $4.50 a gallon are likely to crimp consumer spending in the coming months. Combined with uninspiring demand for U.S. cotton abroad, the above elements tilt in favor of the cotton market bears in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.