Corn
Price action: September corn rallied 12 cents to $4.18, ending near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures scored solid short-covering gains, in tandem with wheat and the soy complex, in a solid rebound from Tuesday’s contract low. Risk appetites improved ahead of Friday’s Fourth of July holiday, despite the arrival of the July 9 tariff deadline next week.
Meanwhile, U.S. weather continues to prove positive for the growing season thus far, with a lack of excessive heat and timely showers expected to support normal crop development across a large part of the Midwest, Great Plains, Delta and southeastern states over the next two weeks. However, there is some potential for net drying to occur in a few pockets and a close watch on those areas will be warranted. In South America, southern portions of center-south Brazil will receive some much-needed drier weather in the next ten days which may improve conditions for grain fill and maturation. Late planted crops are behind in their development due to frequent rains and wet field conditions.
The Energy Information Administration reported weekly ethanol production averaged 1.076 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended June 27, down 5,000 bpd (0.5%) from last week but 13,000 bpd (1.2%) above the same week last year. Ethanol stocks declined 287,000 barrels to 24.117 million barrels.
USDA will release its weekly Export Sales Report early Thursday morning, with analysts expecting net sales to have ranged from 400,000 MT to 1.0 MMT for 2024-25 and between 500,000 and 900,000 MT for 2025-26.
Technical analysis: September corn futures rose solidly from this week’s low, ending the session above the 10-day moving average of $4.13 3/4, with bulls looking to overcome the 20-, 40-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, layered from $4.20 to $4.41 3/4. Meanwhile, bears remain focused on edging below this week’s low of $4.00 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans closed 20 3/4 cents higher at $10.48. December meal futures rose $3.2 to $290.8. December bean oil surged 139 points to 55.07 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures surged higher today in an impressive show of strength, negating the recent bearish consolidation pattern on the daily bar chart. Soybeans led strength across the grain and soy complex with corn and wheat eventually following to the upside today. Today’s move higher comes after bearish consolidation earlier this week in both corn and beans. The push higher in beans despite stocks coming in above expected on Monday shows a lot of the bearish sentiment in the marketplace was largely overdone. Key will be followthrough strength tomorrow or Monday.
Most of the Midwest will see a lack of significant heat over the next ten days and regular rounds of rains and thunderstorms are expected over the same timeframe, says World Weather Inc. Coverage of rain is sporadic enough that the Midwest will dry down moderately, but soil moisture should be high enough to carry the crop through any potential dry spell.
U.S. processors crushed 203.7 million bu. of soybeans in May, up 1.3 million bu. (0.6%) from April and 12.1 million bu. (6.3%) more than last year. Analysts expected soybean crush to total 204.9 million bushels. Through the first nine months of 2024-25, soybean crush totaled 1.844 billion bu., up 5.9% from the same period last year. To hit USDA’s target of 2.420 billion bu., crush must run 5.8% above last year’s pace over the final three months of the marketing year. Crush continues to boast monthly records and both meal and soyoil are being used at a rapid clip, continuing to support crushing margins.
Technical analysis: November soybeans surged higher today. Neither bull nor bear hold the technical advantage at present with prices in the middle of the recent sideways range. Strength has bulls eyeing psychological resistance at $10.50, with additional strength looking to challenge resistance at $10.58 1/4. Support comes in at the 200-day moving average at $10.45 1/2 then $10.37 on a reversal back lower.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 14 3/4 cents to $5.84, near the session high. December HRW wheat rose 11 1/4 cents to $5.66, near the daily high. Spring wheat futures closed 20 1/2 cents higher at $6.49.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures bulls have had two sessions of decent, short-covering gains to give them fresh upside technical momentum to suggest some more upside is possible in the near term. A weaker U.S. dollar index that this week hit a 3.5-year low is a bullish underlying element for the wheat markets, as is improved trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace. Good gains in the corn market today also supported buying interest in wheat futures.
World Weather Inc. today said wheat conditions in North America “are either fair or very good. Wheat production in Canada is expected to be down in some areas because of early planting and harsh early season weather. Most spring wheat areas in the northern U.S. Plains will get timely rain, while winter wheat maturation and harvesting in the central U.S. will be a little sluggish due to rain.” Harvest conditions in the southern U.S. Plains have improved recently, but some rain is predicted for next week to 10 days that may slow crop maturation and harvest progress. Recent drier and warmer Midwest weather was great for filling and maturing soft red wheat, although that region will also experience periodic rain over the next week to ten days, said the forecaster.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 200,000 to 600,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but the bulls have gained some momentum this week. The next upside price objective for the SRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.90 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.65 1/4 and then at this week’s low of $5.56 3/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.38 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.70 and then at $5.80. First support is seen at $5.55 and then at this week’s low of $5.46 3/4.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures closed 60 points higher at 68.63 cents, nearer session highs.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw modest strength today amid a U.S. trade deal with Vietnam but prices met stiff technical resistance. President Trump and Vietnamese officials said today that a trade deal was made, avoiding heightened tariffs set to take effect next week for most U.S. trading partners without a deal. U.S. exports to Vietnam will face no levies, though no ag product was specifically laid out in early reports. Historically, Vietnam buys a significant amount of U.S. cotton. Cotton traders are looking forward to tomorrow’s export sales report. Last week, cotton export sales totaled a disappointing 29,100 bales while exports totaled 192,500 bales. Cotton found modest support from a weaker dollar and higher crude oil prices today.
Technical analysis: Cotton futures climbed on corrective buying today, though gains stopped shy of 68.73 resistance today. Bulls maintain a modest technical advantage. Strength above the aforementioned 100-day moving average has bulls eyeing resistance at 69.32 cents. Support comes in at 68.20 cents then Monday’s low of 67.76 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.