Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 6 cents to $4.11 1/2, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today fresh selling pressure from still very good overall growing weather in the U.S. at present. Extended weather forecasts into early July also show no threatening dry or hot, windy weather. A stronger U.S. dollar index that hit a 2.5-month high overnight and weaker crude oil prices were also bearish outside-market elements for the corn market.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.454 MMT during the week ended June 18, down 195,928 MT from the previous week. Analysts expected corn inspections to range from 1.4 MMT to 1.925 MMT.
Farmers in Brazil’s center-south had harvested 16% of their 2026 second corn crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was up from 8% in the previous week and above the 13% reported last year at the same time.
Traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. Traders expected the report to show the U.S. corn crop in 68% good to excellent condition–the same as last week and compares to 70% in the same condition one year ago.
World Weather Inc. today said alternating periods of rain and sunshine will continue in the Midwest over the next 10 days. The precipitation should prove favorable for ongoing crop development. There is a need for less frequent and less significant rain in some areas along with some warmer temperatures. These changes should evolve in the next 10 days and when they do crop conditions should mostly improve. There are a few pockets of dryness remaining especially in western Iowa, southwestern Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota, but these areas will get some brief showers and thunderstorms to prevent conditions from degrading further. Meantime, in Brazil, safrinha corn maturation and harvest progress will be slowed this week because of rain and cool temperatures. Some frost may also develop briefly Wednesday or Thursday mornings over some of the southern Safrinha corn region.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.25 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.18 and then at $4.22. First support is seen at $4.10 and then at the contract low of $4.06 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 7 cents to $11.15 3/4, near the daily low. July soybean meal fell $1.50 to $299.80, near the daily low and closed at a five-month-low close. July soybean oil rose 146 points to 71.15 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets saw modest selling pressure as the bulls are squelched by still very good growing weather in most of the Midwest, with no threatening weather conditions in the extended forecasts out into early July. A stronger U.S. dollar index that hit a 2.5-month high overnight and weaker crude oil prices were also bearish outside-market elements for the soybean complex.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 241,045 MT during the week ended June 18, down 292,393 MT from the previous week. Analysts expected net inspections to range from 300,000 to 550,000 MT.
Brazil’s 2026 soybean crushing is forecast to reach 63 MMT, up 0.8% from the previous estimate, crushers group Abiove stated earlier today, citing strong harvest and robust demand for derivatives supporting growth in domestic processing, according to Reuters.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states are going to get enough showers and thunderstorms over the next two weeks to maintain good crop development conditions. Some partial relief to dryness will occur over time in South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, although more rain will be needed.
Traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. Traders expected the U.S. soybean crop to be in 66% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, the same as last week and last year at the same time.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily chart has at least stalled out. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $11.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.30 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $11.40 1/2. First support is seen at $11.10 and then at the June low of $11.02 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $2900.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $303.50 and then at $307.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $299.20 and then at the February low of $297.80.
Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 79.69 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 72.00 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 69.59 cents and then at last week’s low of 68.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 8 1/4 cents to $5.97 1/2, near the daily low. July HRW lost 10 1/2 cents to $6.33 1/2, near the daily low. September spring wheat futures fell 9 1/4 cents to $6.38 1/2, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw corrective pullbacks from recent gains, with some selling pressure also seen from weaker corn and soybean futures prices.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 393,150 MT during the week ended June 18, up 35,052 MT from the previous week. Analysts expected inspections to range from 350,000 to 550,000 MT.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, periodic showers and thunderstorms will impact the region during the next two weeks, somewhat benefiting wheat. The precipitation will be good for late-season wheat development and especially helpful to dryland summer grain. Temperatures will be cool this week, conserving soil moisture and supporting good crop development rates. Warming is expected again after day 10. In the Northern Plains, generally favorable conditions in the eastern half of the crop region will persist, though warmer-biased temperatures will be welcome. More rainfall will be needed to maintain soil conditions in the western portions of the crop region.
Traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. Traders were expecting U.S. winter wheat in 27% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, versus 27% last week and 49% at the same time last year. Winter wheat harvested is seen at 35% complete versus 19% last year. Spring wheat condition is seen as 56% good to excellent as of Sunday, compared to 55% last week and 54% last year at the same time.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Prices are starting to trend up on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.71. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.18 1/4 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at $5.90 and then at $5.80.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $6.14. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.48 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $6.57 1/4. First support is seen at $6.30 and then at last week’s low of $6.21 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 84 points to 75.21 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a corrective pullback today after recent good gains. Weaker grains, lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar index, as well as weaker U.S. stock indexes, were all bearish outside-market forces working against the cotton market bulls today.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas needs rain, especially in the dryland areas of the southwest where cotton is not developing and waiting for significant moisture. The region’s crop will likely remain stressed for a while, although late summer rainfall is expected. Meantime, the Blacklands, Coastal Bend and south Texas crops have benefited from recent rain. Crops in these areas will be favorably rated for a while, but a steady diet of drying and warm temperatures in the coming week to ten days will firm the ground and raise the need for rain in unirrigated fields. Meanwhile, irrigation water supply is still sufficient to support crops in California but may be a bit low in Arizona. Seasonal rains will be needed soon to supplement irrigation and support normal crop development.
Traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures see a downtrend on the daily bar chart negated to suggest a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 70.92 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 76.35 cents and then at last week’s high of 77.96 cents. First support is seen at 74.00 cents and then at 73.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.