Corn
Price action: December corn fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.78, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw technical selling pressure today as the near-term chart posture remains bearish. Combines in the Corn Belt are running mostly in high gear this week, which is also prompting better commercial hedge pressure on corn futures.
The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for 2026-27 corn production to 407.3 MMT, up from 401.3 MMT last month, reflecting an upward revision issued by USDA. Meantime, Brazil’s Conab forecasts 2026-27 corn production at 148 MMT, up 2.4% from the previous season. The first corn crop is seen at 32.1 MMT, up 8.9% and the second safrinha crop at 113.25 MMT, up 0.4%.
Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, delayed by one day due to the federal holiday on Monday. Traders expect U.S. corn sales of 600,000 to 1.2 million MT in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said rain will briefly disrupt the U.S. corn harvest over the next few days from Nebraska and Kansas to the Great Lakes region. However, a period of welcome drying will follow to limit the impact of rain delays. Meantime, southern Brazil is too wet, but it will begin drying today and that trend will last into early next week. Some flooding has occurred recently and there may have been some damage to a few crops. Timely rain is expected in center-west and perhaps some northeastern crop areas later this week into next week.
Technical analysis: December corn sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.57 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.88 1/4 and then at $4.95. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.76 and then at last week’s low of $4.70 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 14 1/4 cents to $12.63, near the daily low and hit a six-week low. December soybean meal lost $4.70 to $359.80, near the daily low. December soybean oil rose 9 points to 67.15 cents, near mid-range and hit a six-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw chart-based selling featured today as the near-term technicals lean bearish. Bulls have been very disappointed that prices have sold off following news Wednesday that Chinese state buyers bought 8 to 10 Panamax cargoes of U.S. soybeans this week, Reuters reported. USDA this morning reported daily sales of 330,000 MT of soybeans to China and 283,450 MT to unknown destinations during the 2026-27 marketing year.
Commercial hedge selling pressure is stronger this week as combines are rolling full speed over most of the Midwest.
The U.S. soybean crush declined by more than expected in September to a 13-month low, according to today’s monthly NOPA. The report said scattered plant maintenance downtime and harvest delays impeded the processing pace. Soyoil stocks dropped last month to the lowest in nearly 12 years, NOPA said.
Brazil’s 2026-27 soybean output is expected to reach a record 181.6 MMT, according to Conab, up 0.7% from the previous season, driven by a 1.4% increase in planted area to 49.3 hectares (121.8 million acres).
Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, delayed by one day due to the federal holiday on Monday. Traders expect U.S. soybean sales of 500,000 to 1.2 million MT in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said soybean harvesting will occur rapidly in most areas of the Midwest during the next two weeks, around two rounds of organized precipitation. East-central and southeastern Missouri to Kentucky and southern Indiana will see some rain during the next couple days. Recent drying likely dried out the soil enough to absorb this week’s rain without fields becoming excessively muddy and fieldwork should resume within a short period of time after the rain ends.
Technical analysis: November soybeans see a downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.77 1/4 and then at $13.00. First support is seen at $12.56 1/2 and then at $12.50.
The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $344.20. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $368.80 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at $355.00 and then at $352.60.
Bean oil sees prices trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 71.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 68.25 cents and then at this week’s high of 70.08 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 66.30 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 3 1/4 cents to $6.70, nearer the daily low. December HRW fell 2 cents to $7.13, nearer the daily low. December spring wheat futures fell 4 cents to $6.86, at the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw mild technical selling today. Prices remain trapped in downtrends on the daily bar charts.
Egypt’s state grain buyer Future of Egypt has tightened quality requirements for wheat imports by requiring a minimum ‘baking strength,’ a move that could further narrow sourcing options as disruptions to Black Sea grain exports increase, according to Reuters.
Canada’s farmers struggled to harvest this year’s crops due to an unseasonably wet September, and farmers and crop quality assessors reported damage to pulse crops and spring wheat. Reuters notes lack of quality from Canada could contribute to tighter global wheat stocks and broadly higher food prices amid conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, delayed by one day due to the federal holiday on Monday. Traders expect U.S. wheat sales of 300,000 to 600,000 MT in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, recent rain in Oklahoma has brought relief to chronic dryness and drought. Additional rain is needed in the northwest part of the state and from the Texas Panhandle into southeastern Colorado. Wheat establishment should improve with the recent rain and that which is expected in the coming week to 10 days. In the Northern Plains, fluctuating temperatures are expected to occur across much of the crop region in the coming days--particularly in Montana, where temperatures will shift from the low 20s to mid-70s Friday into Saturday. Frosts and freezes are likely.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.81 and then at $6.90. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.61 1/2 and then at $6.50.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.25 and then at $7.40. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at $6.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 60 points to 80.06 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw mild pressure today amid mostly weaker grain futures prices, a weaker U.S. stock market. However, sharply higher crude oil prices today did limit the downside in cotton. The near-term technical posture for cotton futures has turned more bullish this week.
Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, delayed by one day due to the federal holiday on Monday.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see additional rain in some areas today and another round of rain Wednesday into the following weekend that will slow harvesting, cause quality declines and possibly cause some production cuts due to boll rot and some stringing out of cotton fibers from the boll during periods of heavy rain. Additional rain will occur today from southern into eastern parts of West Texas and southwestern Oklahoma where some stringing out is possible. An important period of drier weather will occur Friday into Tuesday will reduce the risk of boll rot with another period of drier weather likely Oct. 26-29. Rain Wednesday into the following weekend will likely be great enough to increase quality declines and raise the risk of boll rot in a larger part of the region. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see infrequent rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks and the remaining cotton harvest will be slowed by the rain while much of the cotton has likely already been harvested.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures have seen a price downtrend on the daily chart negated and prices are now in a fledgling uptrend. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 84.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the October low of 77.05 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 82.25 cents and then at 83.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 79.38 cents and then at last week’s low of 78.77 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.