Corn
Price action: May corn fell 3 cents to $4.41, near mid-range and hit a six-week low. For the week, May corn was down 11 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: May corn futures today saw a technically bearish weekly low close to suggest more chart-based selling pressure from the speculators early next week.
USDA reported daily sales of 125,640 MT to unknown destinations during 2025-26.
Traders will continue to monitor the just-resumed weekly crop progress reports on Monday afternoons, as well as the daily price movements in the U.S. dollar index. The sickly winter wheat markets likely need to see a recovery to find corn seeing any sustained up-trending price action.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today reported recent rain has saturated the topsoil in northern and central parts of the Midwest, preventing early-season fieldwork. A wetter-than-usual bias will continue for the next 10 days to two weeks in much of the central and north preventing much fieldwork from occurring. Some improved weather may come along later in the month to induce some needed drying. The immediate Ohio River Valley did not get much precipitation recently and this week’s moisture should be restricted as well and that should translate into an opportunity for some planting.
90-day outlook: This week’s WASDE report that indicated no change in U.S. ending stocks and a slight increase in global stocks offered no support to corn futures. Next month’s WASDE will include USDA’s initial forecast for the 2026-27 crop year. Research from the National Corn Grower’s showed that farmers are divided on potentially cutting nitrogen applications which could add uncertainty in yield forecasts early in the year. Demand fundamentals will likely continue strong in the coming weeks, with increased U.S. ethanol production and likely solid U.S. corn export sales.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 10 1/2 cents to $11.75 3/4, nearer the daily high, closed at a nearly four-week high close and for the week up 12 1/4 cents. May soybean meal soared $14.20 to $331.80, nearer the session high, hit a three-week high and for the week up $16.60. May bean oil lost 61 points to 67.09 cents, near mid-range and for the week down 185 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean meal market was the stellar performer of the grains complex today, posting the largest daily gain in months. Spreaders were featured unwinding long bean oil, short meal spreads. Soybean meal also got support from USDA reporting daily sales of 100,000 MT of U.S. soymeal to Italy during 2025-26. Soybean planting progress will begin to be tracked by USDA in its weekly crop progress reports starting Monday.
30-day outlook: Early soybean planting potential in the U.S. is looking favorable for the lower-most Midwest, Delta and southeastern states, despite a few bouts of rain. However, conditions in the remainder of the Midwest will be too wet and cool at times, limiting fieldwork.
90-day outlook: The scheduled summit meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping in China in mid-May will be a focal point for the soy complex traders. U.S. soybean planting progress, or lack thereof in the coming weeks, may be markets-moving.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat fell 3 1/2 cents to $5.71, nearer the session low, hit a five-week low early on, and for the week were down 27 1/4 cents. May HRW wheat gained 1/4 cent to $5.90 3/4, near mid-range and hit a five-week low early on. For the week, May HRW was down 25 cents. May spring wheat futures fell 6 3/4 cents to $6.11 1/2, nearer the daily low, and for the week were down 35 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures market bears are on the ropes amid the recent price slump that saw May SRW close at a technically bearish weekly low close today. Some U.S. wheat regions have received beneficial moisture recently, with more in the forecast.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said dryness relief to wheat produced from northern Texas to central and eastern Kansas is expected over the next 10 days. Some partial relief is also expected to the west, but it is unclear how well the crop will respond to the erratic and light intensity of rain expected in western Kansas, eastern Colorado and southwestern Nebraska. Meantime, returning wet biased conditions in parts of the former Soviet Union may lead to some field working delays. The moisture will saturate the soil in some areas. Not much fieldwork has begun yet and there should be plenty of moisture for planting this year. Wheat conditions in Europe and North Africa are mostly good and the same is suspected in the Middle East. Rain in the coming week in Morocco, northwestern Algeria, Spain and France will help improve crop conditions after recent drying. China’s winter grain crop should be poised to perform well this spring as long as the crop got planted and established well last autumn after early season flooding.
90-day outlook: One potential bright spot for the wheat markets has been the sell off in the U.S. dollar index, which hit a five-week low today. If the greenback continues to depreciate in the coming weeks and months, such would make U.S. wheat more price-competitive on the world market and likely provide a boost to U.S. export sales that have been lagging recently.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures fell 4 points to 73.22 cents, nearer the session high after hitting a 12-month high early on. For the week, May cotton was up 230 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market continues to trek north and to confound the naysayers. Technical buying has been featured as prices are in a solid uptrend on the daily bar chart. Some better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week, as well as a sell off in the U.S. dollar index, prompted better buying interest in cotton, as did a rebound in crude oil prices late this week. Cotton traders next week will continue to monitor the daily price movements in crude oil, the U.S. stock indexes and the U.S. dollar index.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern Plains over the coming week will be greatest during the weekend and resulting rainfall may be sufficient to offer some relief to dryness in West Texas, South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend while maintaining good soil moisture in the Blacklands. Most of the rain will be light leaving need for more moisture in many areas.
90-day outlook: Better U.S.-China trade relations could be a positive element on the U.S. cotton export demand front in the coming months. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in China in mid-May. Xi is expected to visit the U.S. later this year. A notable uptick in weekly export business has been a boon for cotton futures amid early-season weather concerns in the U.S. and expectations of reduced global acreage.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.