Corn
Price action: December corn rose 1/4 cent to $4.24, nearer the daily low. For the week, December corn lost 6 cents.
5-day outlook: Today’s close near the weekly low in December corn futures sets the speculative bears up for some chart-based selling pressure early next week. Corn bulls got little traction today from USDA reporting a daily U.S. corn sale of 206,460 MT to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said early corn harvesting should advance well in the eastern Corn Belt through Saturday while some fieldwork advances in the western Corn Belt around the showers and thunderstorms expected. “Although some areas from the southwestern Corn Belt to the eastern Corn Belt and Wisconsin will see moderate to locally heavy rain during the next week, the soil is dry enough to absorb much of the moisture without becoming excessively muddy and causing prolonged delays to fieldwork.” Drier weather and improving conditions for fieldwork will occur Sep. 27-Oct. 3, said World Weather. Corn planting in Argentina advanced swiftly this week in the country’s main agricultural areas ahead of storms forecast for this weekend, which would pause efforts, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.
30-day outlook: Corn harvest has seen an early start in many parts of the Corn Belt this year. The related commercial hedge selling pressure will ramp up in the coming weeks, which could limit rallies in corn futures prices. However, as seen by corn prices still in an uptrend on the daily chart after last week’s USDA supply and demand report showing a big U.S. corn crop, it appears the big and price-bearish corn crop has already been factored into futures prices.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 1.232 million MT for the week ended Sept. 11, which was within the expected pre-report range. Export demand for U.S. corn has been good recently, which is likely to keep a floor under prices. New U.S. trade deals in the coming months would likely produce even more global demand for U.S. corn. Recent trade talks between the U.S. and China have apparently been going well, giving grain market bulls hopes that better U.S. grain export sales to China will occur in the coming months.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 12 cents to $10.25 1/2, nearer the daily low and on the week down 20 3/4 cents. December soybean meal lost 70 cents to $284.00, near the daily low and for the week down $4.60. December bean oil fell 51 points to 50.62 cents, near the daily low and for the week down 155 points.
5-day outlook: The soy complex bulls laid an egg late this week after some promising price action early this week. The technically bearish weekly low closes in November beans and December meal and bean oil set the table for follow-through chart-based selling pressure early next week. President Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping this morning. While reports said the talks were positive and constructive, it appears U.S. soybean purchases were not a part of the discussion. That apparently deflated the soy complex bulls. President Trump said the call was “very productive” and progress was made on many fronts. He also hinted at an in-person meeting with Xi early next year, which would be beyond the main export window that China has historically booked most of its soybeans.
30-day outlook: Soybean harvest is getting an early jump in much of the Midwest, as the crop has dried down quickly. World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see a wet weather pattern through next Friday “and much of the region will see multiple rounds of rain with the southwestern Corn Belt into Illinois wettest. There will be mostly temporary interruptions to fieldwork.” Much of the eastern Corn Belt outside of Illinois will be dry through Saturday with rain expected Sunday into next week for that region. Drier weather and improving conditions for fieldwork will occur Sep. 27-Oct. 3. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal through this weekend before some cooling occurs and warmer than normal temperatures are most common Tuesday into the following weekend with no risk of frost or freezes during the period. Harvest pressure and the related commercial hedge selling will pick up as September progresses, which will likely keep any price rallies modest at best.
90-day outlook: Veteran ag market watcher and Washington insider Jim Wiesemeyer told AgriTalk radio today that solid China purchases of U.S. soybeans are a must for the soybean futures market to break out of its doldrums. However, he said that’s a tall order and that grain traders are more and more adopting a “show me” attitude on actual China purchases of U.S. beans versus just talking and posturing from both the U.S. and China. Traders will remain focused on U.S.-China trade talks in the coming weeks/months as the top global soybean importer continues to mostly shy away from U.S. new-crop soybean purchases.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 1 3/4 cents to $5.22 1/2, near mid-range and for the week down 1 cent. December HRW wheat lost 2 3/4 cents to $5.07 1/4, near mid-range and down 7 1/2 cents for the week. December spring wheat futures fell 4 1/4 cents to $5.67 1/2 and gave up 4 1/4 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets earlier this week showed some bullish promise but the bulls faded down the stretch late this week and proceeded to lose all their early-week gains and then some. Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes in December SRW and HRW wheat futures suggests the technical bears are still in technical command and will look to play the short side again early next week.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country “a nearly ideal weather pattern is expected in the next two weeks, with a good amount of rain for winter wheat planting and plenty of warmth for maturation of summer crops. There may be some pockets of the region that get left with a need for greater rainfall. However, most areas should receive a favorable amount, especially after what has already fallen in the last seven days.” In the U.S. northern Plains, conditions in the next seven days will be driest in northwestern production areas, such as northern Montana and northwestern North Dakota, and wettest in southeastern parts of the region. The rain in southeastern areas could be enough to cause some fieldwork delays; however, fieldwork should advance favorably in northwestern areas, said the forecaster.
90-day outlook: Rains across U.S. HRW wheat country continue to bode well for germination, and are expected to continue into the end of the month. This environment is a positive for winter grazing, with some producers likely on the fence about managing the crop through harvest, especially if prices remain at lower levels.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 61 points to 66.29 cents and near the daily low. For the week, December cotton fell 54 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market bulls faded badly to end the week, with today’s technically bearish weekly low close setting the speculative bears up for follow-through, chart-based selling early next week. President Trump said a telephone call between him and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping was “very productive” and progress was made on many fronts. He also hinted at an in-person meeting early next year. Cotton market traders were apparently non-plussed by the lack of specifics on U.S. ag trade coming out of today’s phone call between the leaders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said warm temperatures and limited rainfall in west Texas will help to expedite the development of cotton. “Some growth retardant has been applied to a part of the crop to limit new development while supporting the ongoing development of established bolls. Some yields outside of the southwestern dryland fields should be good.” Cotton in the Blacklands will be dry into the weekend and that will favor crop maturation and some harvesting. Harvesting in other areas of Texas to the south will advance well around any spotty showers that evolve. The Blacklands will get rain next week to slow or stall fieldwork for a little while. U.S. Delta crops have dried out, resulting in some crop stress. Late-season boll sizes may be smaller than usual, but the fiber quality is likely above average this year. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from late this week into next week resulting in some discoloring of open boll fiber. The southeastern states and Arizona will see a mix of rain and sunshine with net drying expected in many areas. Meantime, cotton harvesting in Brazil is virtually complete, although some lingering fieldwork is expected for a little while longer, said World Weather.
90-day outlook: The Federal Reserve this week cut interest rates, making borrowing costs less for consumers. U.S. stock indexes rallied to record highs this week on notions of lower U.S. interest rates continuing to drive investor demand for equities. Trade tensions between the U.S. and its major counterparts have eased a bit. All of the above are price-friendly elements for the cotton futures market in the coming months.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.