Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 1 1/2 cents to $4.52 1/2, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some more short covering and perceived bargain buying today. Higher winter wheat futures prices today also supported some buying interest in corn. A weaker U.S. dollar index today also favored the grain market bulls.
USDA reported daily U.S. corn sales of 316,000 MT of corn to Mexico, of the total 65,000 MT is for delivery during 2025-26, 139,000 MT during 2026-27 and 112,000 MT during 2027-28. Daily sales of 120,000 MT were also reported for unknown destinations for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year.
USDA on Monday afternoon estimated U.S. corn planting to be 5% complete as of Sunday, up two percentage points from the previous week.
Conab raised its second safrinha corn crop production estimate for Brazil to 109.12 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 108.43 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. will be excellent in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states. However, dryness will be slowing emergence and establishment in many areas. Planting in the Midwest will be slowed due to frequent rain and wet field conditions. Meantime, alternating periods of rain and sunshine are expected in western and far southern Brazil’s crop areas during the next 10 days, supporting late-season crop development and some ongoing harvest activity. Rainfall in other areas may not counter evaporation very well and some net drying is possible.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.70. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.33 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.56 1/4 and then at $4.60. First support is seen at $4.50 and then at last week’s low of $4.48 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 4 3/4 cents to $11.72 3/4, near the daily low. July soybean meal fell $1.60 to $327.30, near the daily low and hit a five-month high early on. July soybean oil lost 14 points to 66.22 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week low today.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures markets today saw follow-through selling pressure after President Trump threatened to slap 50% tariffs on China’s exports to the U.S. after receiving intelligence that China is ready to sell military hardware to Iran. Sharply lower crude oil prices today also pressured the soybean complex, especially bean oil.
Also negative for soybean prices today, Conab increased its Brazilian soybean production estimate to a record 179.15 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 177.85 MMT.
USDA estimated U.S. soybean planting to be 6% complete as of April 12, which is 4% ahead of year-ago and the five-year average.
China’s soybean imports rose 14.9% in March on the year, but were well below analysts’ expectations. Imports were crimped by delayed shipments from Brazil due to tougher inspections to rule out contamination.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the U.S. Midwest regular rounds of precipitation into Saturday will limit, but not prevent, fieldwork with the moisture welcome in some of the remaining dry areas, while the persistent dry area from northeastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota to southwestern Minnesota misses most of the significant precipitation. Most of the drier area mentioned above will benefit from some precipitation, but will be left in need of significant rain to fully restore the soil moisture. Areas near and south of the Ohio River will see mostly light rain and planting should advance during the drier days. The southwestern Corn Belt to Wisconsin and Michigan will be wettest this week and with the soil there already saturated or nearly saturated an extended period of drying will be needed to allow fieldwork to increase in some areas. A drier weather pattern will occur Sunday into April 28 and planting should steadily increase around one round of precipitation advertised for much of the Midwest Apr. 22-25.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.83 and then at $11.90. First support is seen at $11.60 and then at last week’s low of $11.56 3/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the November 2025 high of $343.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $335.60 and then at $340.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $323.00 and then at today’s low of $320.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls appear tired. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 70.12 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.32 cents. First resistance is seen at 67.00 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at 65.00 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 10 cents to $6.01 1/4, nearer the daily high. July HRW gained 19 3/4 cents to $6.36 1/4, nearer the daily high. September spring wheat futures rose 12 3/4 cents to $6.68 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting today, with HRW leading the way on dry conditions in much of U.S. HRW country. A weaker U.S. dollar index today was also price-supportive for winter wheat.
USDA rated the winter wheat crop as 34% good to excellent as of April 12, down a percentage point from last week and 13 points below year-ago.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, rainfall in the next 10 days will occur mostly in central Oklahoma and possibly south-central Kansas. Most other areas of the region will have net drying with worsening drought conditions which will raise concern over the health of unirrigated winter wheat. There is potential in the second week of the outlook for greater coverage of meaningful rainfall. However, this will depend upon the track of one or two low pressure systems and confidence is low right now that these systems will track in such a manner that supports favorable rainfall in western wheat areas. Concern about the lack of rain in the U.S. western hard red winter wheat areas during the weekend and that combined with a poor precipitation outlook will be a concern for producers and traders. Wheat in the Midwest has been and will continue in better shape than that in some areas in the central and southwestern Plains.
Technical analysis: SRW wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.36. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at $6.05 and then at $6.15. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.77 3/4 and then at $5.70.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.62 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.80. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.39 1/2 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at $6.25 and then at today’s low of $6.11 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 11 points to 76.52 cents, near mid-range and hit a nearly two-year high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw more technical buying featured early on today, and then some mild profit-taking pressure. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace also has supported buying interest in cotton futures. Solidly lower crude oil prices worked in favor of the cotton market bears today.
USDA Monday afternoon reported that U.S. cotton planting was 7% complete as of Sunday, matching the five-year average.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers that occur should not bring enough rain to prevent the soil from drying out again, leaving the region in need of significant rain to improve conditions for dryland planting. The Blacklands will see regular rounds of showers through the next two weeks and although most of the rain should not be heavy, soil moisture in place and the occasional rain should support cotton germination, establishment, and development while causing interruptions to fieldwork. The Coastal Bend and South Texas will see infrequent showers during the next two weeks and conditions for cotton will deteriorate as the soil dries out. Meantime, the San Joaquin Valley and Southern Arizona will be dry through much of the next two weeks and the few infrequent showers that may occur should not bring enough rain to cause more than temporary planting interruptions or induce notable increases in soil moisture.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 78.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 72.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 77.08 cents and then at 86.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 74.76 cents and then at 74.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.