Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.38 1/2, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw modest selling pressure tied to the uncertainty of the new Trump administration tariffs regime and its repercussions on U.S. world trading partners.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2025-26 Brazilian corn production estimate 1 MMT, to 135 MMT, indicating a neutral-to-lower bias as safrinha planting remains slow overall. “With a notable amount planted later than desired, the risk of lower yields has increased,” according to Cordonnier. He left his Argentine corn production estimate unchanged at 53 MMT, but holds a neutral-to-lower bias.
The first vessel of Brazilian DDG’s destined for China left the Brazilian port of Imbituba, Santa Catarina last week, loaded with 62,000 tons of DDG’s.
World Weather Inc. today said weather patterns over the next couple of weeks will be well mixed to support fieldwork, crop maturation and ongoing crop development. There will be some net drying in southern Brazil for a while, but as long as rain resumes later in the season before the monsoon ends all will be good. Safrinha planting may be slowed in the north for a while this week while it will be accelerated again in the first week of March. Dryness in southern Safrinha crop areas will be closely monitored, but the environment will be good for quick field progress. Meantime, Argentina’s recent rain has helped reduce dryness and improve crop conditions. Some of the stressful conditions this summer may have shaved down yield potentials, but no disaster occurred and the smaller crop will easily be countered by the big crop in Brazil. Eastern Argentina will be dry for at least another week and the soil will firm once again.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.56 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.26 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.41 and then at this week’s high of $4.45. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.37 3/4 and then at $4.31 3/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 5 1/2 cents to $11.55 1/4, nearer the session high. May soybean meal rose $1.90 to $314.40, nearer the daily high and closed at a 2.5-month high close. May soybean oil gained 62 points to 60.50, nearer the daily high and hit another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil futures market today saw more technical buying from the chart-based speculators, with the meal remaining a slight laggard due to spreaders selling meal and buying bean oil.
Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his 2025-26 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 1 MMT, to 178 MMT, as excessive rains affect central Brazil and lacking rain in parts of Rio Grande do Sul remain. He maintained his Argentine soybean estimate of 47 MMT but holds a neutral-to-lower bias after many areas were damaged by high winds and hail.
European Union soybean imports for the 2025-26 season, which began in July reached 8.11 MMT by February 22, down 11% from the same period a year earlier, according to data published by the European Commission.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in Brazil during the next 10 days to two weeks will favor northern regions, where soil moisture will be left favorable for crop development, while fieldwork is slowed by regular rain. Central and especially southern Brazil and Paraguay will see much less rain than northern Brazil through Mar. 5 and fieldwork should advance well around at least some rain in much of the region today into Thursday before a timely round of rain occurs Mar. 6-10. In Argentina, more sunshine than rain is expected during the next week in central and eastern regions, where stress to crops is likely to increase in the drier areas while occasional rain and favorable soil moisture in place today in south-central and western Argentina allows most crops to develop in a favorable environment. A close watch will be made on nearly widespread rain Mar. 4-6 and additional showers Mar. 7-10.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.77 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.65 and then at $11.77 3/4. First support is seen at $11.50 and then at this week’s low of $11.43.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at $325.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $292.70. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $316.40 and then at $320.00. First support is seen at $310.00 and then at this week’s low of $308.30.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now short-term overbought and due for a corrective pullback. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 62.50 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 57.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 60.70 cents and then at 61.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 59.65 cents and then at this week’s low of 59.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW fell 1/2 cent to $5.73 1/4, near mid-range. May HRW lost 5 1/4 cents to $5.67, nearer the daily low. May spring wheat fell 1 3/4 cent to $5.95 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw mild profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Weaker corn futures prices today also somewhat weighed on wheat markets..
Record low temps across most of Ukraine in February led to deep soil freezing, which could delay the start of the grain sowing campaign, according to the head of the agricultural department of the state meteorological center. Meantime, Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consultancy, noted the situation with shipments from Russian ports remain difficult, as stormy weather continues in the Black Sea, with ice preventing ships from passing through the Caspian and Baltic Seas.
World Weather Inc. today said rain is needed in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and in Canada’s Prairies, although there is plenty of time for this to take place before the growing season gets under way in Canada. The U.S. need for moisture should steadily rise in March, especially with warmer-than-usual weather anticipated for much of the coming two weeks in the high Plains region. Temperatures have been bouncing around significantly in the U.S. Plains recently, limiting new crop development especially in the driest areas. Meanwhile, soil moisture has been greatly improved this winter in Europe, northern Africa and across the Middle East. Portions of France are also in much better condition than they were last autumn. This should translate into a favorable winter crop outlook for most of these areas. However, if rain continues as frequent as it has been there may be some flooding. Northern India and Pakistan benefited from rain last month, though some areas will need more. There may be some rising flood potential for this late winter and spring in the western former Soviet Union due to saturated soil and a very deep snow pack that has to melt.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.35. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.83 1/2 and then at $5.90. First support is seen at $5.70 and then at $5.59.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.80 and then at last week’s high of $5.90 3/4. First support is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton rose 42 points to 65.56 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a five-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting as the bulls have started a price uptrend on the daily bar chart, to also inspire some technical buying interest. Improved risk appetite in the general marketplace also helped out the cotton market bulls today.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March and a dry bias will prevail for at least another 10 days. West Texas also needs rain and not much will fall for a while. California will fall back to a drier bias after some rain fell last week. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potentials later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into a part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical for this time of year.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage as the bulls are working on a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the January high of 67.11 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.86 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 66.30 cents and then at 67.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 64.99 cents and then at 64.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.