Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 3 1/2 cents to $4.42, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw short covering and fresh buying interest amid gains in soybeans and a surge in soybean meal futures. Corn bulls on this day shrugged off lower winter wheat futures prices. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said rain during the next 10 days in Brazil will favor northern regions, where soil moisture will be left favorable for crop development and for long-term Safrinha corn prospects. Central and especially southern Brazil and Paraguay will see much less rain than northern Brazil through Mar. 6 and fieldwork should advance well around rain in parts of the region into Thursday before a timely round of rain occurs Mar. 7-11. Soil moisture is marginal to short in some Safrinha corn areas from Mato Grosso do Sul into Parana and nearby Sao Paulo and a few areas will receive beneficial into Thursday, but drier weather Friday into March 6 will evaporate much of the moisture from the coming rain. In Argentina, little rain is expected during the next 10 days from central and east-central into southeastern Argentina, where stress to crops is likely to increase in the drier areas while occasional rain and favorable soil moisture in place today in south-central and western Argentina allows most crops to develop in a favorable environment. A close watch will be made on nearly widespread rain advertised for Mar. 9-11 as the moisture will be important to crops in the drier areas where notable relief from dryness will occur if this rain event occurs as advertised.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, with traders expecting 900,000 to 1.8 million MT in the 2025-26 marketing year and sales of zero to 100,000 MT in the 2026-27 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.56 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.26 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.42 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $4.45. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.37 1/4 and then at $4.31 3/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 9 3/4 cents to $11.65, near the session high and hit a three-month high. May soybean meal rose $7.40 to $321.80, near the daily high and hit a 2.5-month high. May soybean oil rose 17 points to 60.67, nearer the daily high and hit another contract high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures market today saw more technical buying from the chart-based speculators, with the meal surging due in part to spreaders unwinding short meal, long bean oil spreads.
The EPA will send its proposal for new biofuel blending volume mandates to the White House and the rule will likely be finalized by the end of March, according to Assistant Administrator Aaron Szabo.
World Weather Inc. today said weather patterns in South America over the next couple of weeks will be well mixed to support fieldwork, crop maturation and ongoing crop development. There will be some net drying in southern Brazil for a while, but as long as rain resumes later in the season before the monsoon ends all will be good. Dryness in southern crop areas will be closely monitored, but the environment will be good for quick field progress. Argentina’s recent rain has helped reduce dryness and improve crop conditions. Some of the stressful conditions this summer may have shaved down yield potentials, but no disaster occurred and the smaller crop will easily be countered by the big crop in Brazil. Eastern Argentina will be dry for at least another week and the soil will firm once again.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, with traders expecting U.S. soybean sales of 400,000 to 1 million MT in the 2025-26 marketing year, and sales of zero to 100,000 MT in the 2026-27 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.77 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.66 and then at $11.77 3/4. First support is seen at $11.50 and then at this week’s low of $11.43.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today, amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at $325.00 and then at $330.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $314.40 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now short-term overbought and due for more of a corrective pullback. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 62.50 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 57.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 60.97 cents and then at 61.40 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 59.65 cents and then at this week’s low of 59.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW fell 3 1/2 cents to $5.69 3/4, near mid-range. May HRW lost 2 3/4 cents to $5.64 1/4, near mid-range. May spring wheat futures rose 1 1/2 cents to $5.97, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw more profit-taking pressure. Some technical selling was featured today as prices have backed well down from last week’s highs.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government intends to scrap a tax-free quota and raise levies to 50% on wheat-feed imported from countries other than the U.S. starting in April, Israel’s deputy trade commissioner Yifat Alon Perel told Bloomberg.
The U.S. has finalized a reciprocal trade deal with Indonesia, which includes purchases of two million tonnes of U.S. wheat per year for the next five years and a minimum of 1.2 million MT per year after.
Sovecon has trimmed its 2025-26 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.3 MMT to 45.4 MMT, citing reduced competitiveness of Russian wheat compared to supplies from the European Union.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 250,000 to 500,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year and sales of zero to 50,000 MT in the 2026-27 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, a more-active weather pattern is expected to gradually evolve in the next two weeks with greater precipitation. Southeastern parts of the HRW wheat region will receive the most significant rain, but any moisture in any part of the region would be welcome. A majority of the precipitation boost will occur in the second week of the outlook. West-central and northwestern production areas are least likely to receive meaningful moisture. There is some concern over getting moisture into parts of the production region while temperatures are so much warmer than usual because of the stimulus for greening and early season crop development. A few bouts of colder biased weather will be very important over the next few weeks to help prevent wheat development from advancing too fast. In the Northern Plains, not much precipitation will occur in the next seven days. What precipitation does occur will be mostly in southern production areas.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. However, the bulls need to show fresh power soon. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.35. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.75 3/4 and then at $5.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.63 1/2 and then at $5.58 3/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.73 1/2 and then at $5.80. First support is seen at $5.59 and then at $5.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton rose 61 points to 66.17 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a five-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Improved risk appetite in the general marketplace at mid-week also helped out the cotton market bulls today. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, with bulls hoping for a repeat of last week’s good sales numbers.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the southern U.S. Plains dry weather will be most common through Monday before a period of wetter weather Tuesday into Sat., Mar. 7 results in beneficial increases in soil moisture in much of the region before drier and improving conditions for fieldwork occur Mar. 8-11. Confidence is low for the details of the Tuesday into Mar. 7 precipitation event, with early indications suggesting much of the region from western Texas into southwestern Oklahoma, the Blacklands, and the Coastal Bend will receive 0.40-2.0” of moisture and locally more with some bands of heavier precipitation. South Texas should receive at least some light precipitation.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the January high of 67.11 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.86 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 66.38 cents and then at 67.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 65.60 cents and then at this week’s low of 64.99 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.