Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.19 3/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market bulls got in gear today in late trading, following some chart consolidation the past couple sessions. The bulls needed to step up and show better strength in order to keep alive a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart for December futures.
USDA today reported U.S. corn export sales of 539,900 MT for 2025-26 led by sales to Mexico. A total of 1.17 MMT in sales were carried over from the 2024-25 marketing year. Sales were well below the expected range of 900,000 MT to 2.4 MMT for 2025-26.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in the Midwest will be infrequent and light in most areas during the next two weeks “and crop maturation and harvesting should advance well, while minor declines in crop yields occur in some southern areas while most crops are too advanced to see significant declines in yields.” Some showers will occur on occasion, however, and a few crops should benefit from the moisture, said the forecaster.
Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report is on deck for grain traders. According to a Reuters survey of analysts, the agency will estimate U.S. corn production at 16.516 billion bushels and an average yield of 186.2 bushels per acre. That compares to USDA’s August production estimate of 16.472 billion bushels and an average yield of 188.8 bushels an acre. Look for potentially higher price volatility Friday in the wake of the USDA data.
Technical analysis: December corn futures prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart but just barely. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.24 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.03 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.22 1/2 and the at the September high of $4.24 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.14 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 8 1/4 cents to $10.33 1/2, nearer the daily high. December soybean meal rose $1.90 to $287.70, nearer the daily high. December soybean oil rose 59 points to 51.60 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex saw short covering and some perceived bargain hunting from the speculators today. Follow-through buying interest to close out the trading week on Friday, would give the bulls some fresh upside momentum, especially in the aftermath of a monthly USDA supply and demand report on Friday that is not expected to be price-friendly. Look for potentially higher price volatility Friday in the wake of the USDA data.
Friday’s USDA’s report, out at 11:00 a.m. CDT. The average of analysts surveyed by Reuters shows a U.S. soybean production estimate of 4.271 billion bushels and an average yield of 53.3 bushels an acre in the September report, compared to the August USDA production estimate of 4.292 billion bushels and an average yield of 53.6 bushels an acre.
USDA this morning reported U.S. soybeans export sales of 541,100 MT for 2025-26 were primarily for unknown destinations. A total of 767,000 MT in sales were carried over from the 2024-25 marketing year. Traders expected sales of 400,000 to 1.6 MMT for 2025-26.
World Weather Inc. said dry weather in the lower Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin has been stressing crops for an extended period of time. “Late double-cropped soybean yields have likely slipped lower,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.62 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at $10.40 and then at $10.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $10.21 1/2 and then at $10.10.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are also on neutral ground. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $289.80 and then at $295.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $284.30 and then at last week’s low of $281.40.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 53.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 51.98 cents and then at
last week’s high of 52.85 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 50.02 cents and then at 49.50 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 6 1/2 cents to $5.21 1/2, near the daily high after hitting a contract low early on. December HRW gained 3 cents to $5.10, near the daily high. Spring wheat futures gained two cents to $5.71 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering today. However, the winter wheat bulls need to put together a multi-session winning streak to suggest market bottoms are in place. The bulls have not been able to accomplish that since June.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales of 305,400 MT for 2025-26, down 2% from the previous week and 43% from the four-week average. Sales were at the lower end of pre-report expectations from 300,000 to 650,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. said that in U.S. HRW regions, generally favorable conditions will still continue through at least the next 10 days to two weeks. However, the need for greater rainfall will increase some near the southeastern fringes of the region. Most areas should get enough rain to benefit early season winter wheat planting. Temperatures will be warm-enough to further support summer crop maturation and fieldwork advancement, said the forecaster.
Wheat traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. No big changes are expected in U.S. wheat stockpiles and wheat traders are more likely to react to what corn and soybean prices do after the midday report.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.25 and then at $5.35 1/2. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.12 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.19 and then at $5.31 1/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.01 3/4 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 5 points to 66.72 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: More short covering was featured in the cotton market today.
Today’s weekly USDA export sales report showed net U.S. cotton sales 129,600 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were down 47 percent from the previous week and 33 percent below the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Vietnam, China, India and Pakistan. Exports of 130,200 RB were down 16 percent from the previous week and down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam, Pakistan and India.
World Weather Inc. said Texas cotton-region precipitation will be limited over the week, with a warming trend that should lead to better late-season cotton development in the west and expedite maturation in the Blacklands. Harvesting in the south will advance favorably with very little rain expected. U.S. Delta crops have dried out greatly, resulting in some crop stress. A few showers are expected in the coming ten days, although the resulting rain will not be enough to change overall crop conditions. The southeastern states and Arizona will see a mix of rain and sunshine.
Cotton traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. A Bloomberg survey showed analysts on average expect U.S. cotton production this year at 13.54 million bales, which is slightly up from USDA’s August estimate.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 68.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 64.24 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 67.10 cents and then at 67.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 66.30 cents and then at last week’s low of 65.80 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.