Corn
Price action: December corn rose 20 1/4 cents to $4.80 3/4, near the daily high and hit a two-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market got a bullish USDA supply and demand report today. A solid rally in the wheat markets also spilled over into better buying interest in corn futures. USDA’s first survey-based U.S. production estimate increased 12 million bu. from July and was 46 million bu. bigger than analysts expected. However, yield is forecast at 180.7 bushels per acre, down 5.8 bushels from last year’s record-setting 186.5 bushels and 2.3 bushels below trend. USDA cut 75 million bushels from the 2025-26 corn carryover estimate from last month. USDA put the national average on-farm cash price for 2025-26 at $4.15, unchanged from last month.
Weather in the Corn Belt still leans price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said Tuesday’s U.S. Midwest derecho “induced some crop damage, but relative to the nation’s total production the impact should have been low.” Another round of severe weather is expected tonight and Thursday from South Dakota and northern Nebraska to Ohio, resulting in some additional potential damage. Dryness in the northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt will slowly be eased by repeating showers and thunderstorms over the next ten days, but no general soaking is likely which will maintain a need for more rain in some areas. U.S. Delta late season crops (sorghum and soybeans) will be stressed by warm and dry conditions for a while. Meantime, European crops will also continue to be stressed over the next few days, but there is some potential for gradual relief in the west this weekend into next week. Any rain that falls will not reverse the damage, but it should help to curb the declining trend. Dryness will continue in the Balkan Countries in and areas east through Ukraine to Russia’s Southern Region.
Traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls regained the technical advantage today and good follow-through buying on Thursday or Friday would suggest a near-term price uptrend can be sustained. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $4.92. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the August low of $4.57 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.81 1/2 and then at $4.85. First support is seen at $4.75 and then at $4.70.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 40% forward sold and 20% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 50% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans gained 14 1/2 cents to $11.83 1/4, near mid-range and hit a two-week high. September soybean meal rose $3.50 to $308.50, near mid-range. September soybean oil rose 59 points to 69.16 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market got a boost from a price-friendly USDA supply and demand report today. USDA’s first survey-based soybean estimate increased 44 million bu. from July and was 41 million bu. higher than analysts expected. Yields are expected to average 52.7 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels from 2025. USDA cut 5 million bu. from the 2025-26 U.S. soybean carryover estimate from last month. USDA put the national average on-farm cash soybean price at $10.40, unchanged with last month.
USDA today also reported daily sales of 244,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during 2026-27.
Weather in the Midwest still leans price-bearish for soybeans. World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest, daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks and a lack of widespread, significant heat through at least the week will ensure crop conditions are favorable and yield potentials are high in much of the region deep into the month with some exceptions in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt. A close watch will continue on east-central and southeastern South Dakota and nearby Nebraska into northwestern Iowa as well as eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota where soil moisture is marginal to short and stress to crops will increase until significant rain falls. Occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will bring relief from dryness to the region and yield potentials should stabilize or possibly increase overall during the next two weeks. Southeastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska into northwestern Iowa will benefit from moderate to heavy rain today into Thursday. Some crops from eastern Kansas and nearby Nebraska into southern Illinois and nearby areas will be stressed by high temperatures in the 90s and a few lower 100s during the next week with moist soils in place likely to limit rapid increases in crop stress. Around 75% of the Midwest will receive rain Friday into Sunday with totals up to 0.75” and locally more most common along with some bands of 0.75-1.75” and locally more while southwestern and south-central areas are driest.
Traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: A price downtrend on the daily chart for November beans was negated today. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the July high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $11.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.00 and then at $12.15. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.65 1/4 and then at $11.50.
Soybean meal still sees a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $315.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $311.60 and then at $315.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $304.30 and then at $300.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at 67.50 cents and then at last week’s low of 66.51 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 35% forward sold on 2026 crop, with another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 55% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rallied 22 1/2 cents to $6.52 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high. September HRW rose 21 1/2 cents to $7.20 3/4, nearer the daily high. Spring wheat futures rose 13 3/4 cents to $6.73, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting today, following news overnight that three grain terminals in Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk were damaged in a massive overnight drone attack, as Ukraine escalated strikes on key maritime infrastructure, said a Bloomberg report.
Today’s USDA supply and demand report leans friendly, as the agency lowered its U.S. all wheat production forecast 5 million bu. from July. Winter wheat production was down less than a million bushels, with HRW declining 9 million bu., SRW unchanged and white winter up roughly 8 million bu. USDA cut the other spring wheat estimate 1 million bu. from July and cut expected durum production 4 million bu. USDA lowered its wheat yield 0.1 bu. per acre to 47.8 bu. and raised harvested acres by 40,000 at 32.1 million. USDA put the 2026-27 wheat carryover at 717 million bu., down 5 million bu. from last month. USDA put the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $6.20, up 20 cents from last month.
World weather today said good harvest weather has been occurring in the central U.S. Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Some slowdown in fieldwork is expected due to more frequent rainfall in the coming week to 10 days. No crop quality issues are likely, although drying will become more important over time. Spring wheat, barley and other small grains in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies are stressed and losing yield potential due to the lack of rain. Cool weather briefly this week and some showers and thunderstorms will reduce crop stress but it is unclear how significant the improvement will be. Most likely additional rain will be needed. Overseas, too much rain has been falling in parts of Russia’s New Lands possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. The wet bias is expected to prevail for the next ten days. Good winter crop harvest weather continues in Russia’s Southern Region and parts of Ukraine. Southeastern Europe has been drying out recently and that is helping to promote winter crop maturation and harvesting, but some spring crops are stressed.
Traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: Price downtrends on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW have now stalled out. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $7.11 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.57 3/4 and then at $6.70. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.26 3/4 and then at $6.15.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $7.77 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.75. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.35 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at last week’s low of $6.93 3/4 and then at $6.75.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures lost 1 point to 84.38 cents, near mid-range after hitting a three-month high early on.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today sold off following the monthly USDA supply and demand report but then rebounded in late trading as the grain futures markets rallied. USDA cut its U.S. cotton production estimate 90,000 bales from the July projection to 13.61 million bales. However, traders expected a larger production cut to 13.54 million bales. USDA estimated the yield at 798 lbs. per acre, down from 872 lbs. last month. Harvested acres were increased 650,000 acres, largely due to increased plantings as found in FSA certified acres, as plantings are now estimated at 10.469 million acres. USDA left 2025-26 U.S. cotton carryover unchanged. USDA made a 1-cent reduction in the average farm price to 61.5 cents per pound.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas and the Texas Blacklands need rain in unirrigated fields to support the best production potential. Dryland crops in west Texas have been deteriorating recently and the trend will continue for the next 10 days. The Delta is also unlikely to see much rain leading to some increase in crop moisture stress. Dryland crops in west Texas will be most stressed by heat and dryness, despite showers in the next couple of days. Cotton in most other U.S. production areas are in varying condition with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. Rain has fallen recently in the Carolinas and Georgia easing long term dryness. Favorable harvest weather should continue in Argentina and Brazil during the next 10 days. Fieldwork is ending in Argentina, but will continue for weeks in Brazil.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the May high of 88.08 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 79.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 85.25 cents and then at 86.00 cents. First support is seen at 83.00 cents and then at 82.51 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.