Corn
Price action: September corn was unchanged at $3.99 1/4, ending near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures held an inside range with outside market forces overshadowing strong export sales data. USDA not only reported a daily sale of 110,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2025-26, but also weekly export sales of 1.262 MMT, which were the largest since early May. Net sales rose 70% from the four-week average, while new-crop sales totaled 888,600 MT. Sales topped analysts’ pre-report expectations of 375,000 to 900,000 MT for 2024-25 and 150,000 to 700,000 MT for 2025-26.
World Weather Inc. forecasts the Midwest and Great Plains may trend warmer and drier in the latter part of next week and into the following weekend, though complete dryness is not expected and the shift in pattern may be temporary.
The U.S. Drought Monitor has been updated, with worsening soil moisture and crop stress at a 1-category degradation for northern Illinois. Minor degradations were made to parts of Indiana, western Ohio, northwestern Kentucky and northwestern Missouri where short-term precip deficits have increased. Meanwhile, heavier precip this past week led to a reduction in abnormal dryness in eastern Lower Michigan, but moderate drought was added to western parts of Lower Michigan, while recent heavy rains led to a 1-category improvement for parts of western and eastern Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Minnesota.
Technical analysis: September corn bears continue to firmly grasp the near-term technical advantage, though Wednesday’s low of $3.96 1/4 held in today’s session. Additional support will serve at $3.94 and $43.90 3/4, while initial resistance stands at $4.01 ½, then $4.03 1/2 and again at the 10-, 20- ans 40-day moving averages.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: August soybeans rose 3 1/2 cents to $10.12 ½, while August meal gained $2.00 to $271.40. August soyoil rose 20 points to 53.49 cents.
Fundamental analysis: August soybeans edged to a fresh for-the-move low, though short-covering in meal and technically oversold conditions inspired a bounce from the daily low. Trade uncertainties continue to linger, as President Trump warned Brazil he will impose a 50% tariff on all Brazilian exports to the U.S., beginning Aug. 1 unless President Lula da Silva halts what Trump deemed a “witch hunt” trial against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula said the new tariffs would be met with reciprocal measures.
Meanwhile, U.S. port operators are sounding the alarm against proposed tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese-made cranes and other cargo-handling equipment. Critics stated the move would drive up critical infrastructure costs by tens of millions of dollars. The Wall Street Journal Logistics Report’s Paul Berger notes these tariffs would be added to existing 25% duties imposed by the Biden administration, compounding costs for port authorities already facing limited alternatives as China accounts for more than 70% of global crane production.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly soybean sales totaled 503,000 MT for 2024-25 during the week ended July 3, which were up 9% from the previous week and 43% from the four-week average. Net sales totaled 248,400 MT for 2025-26. Sales for both years were within the range of pre-report expectations.
Technical analysis: August soybeans ended the session well off the daily low as near-term oversold conditions contributed to a corrective bounce. Initial resistance will stand at $10.13 3/4, then $10.19 3/4 and the 10-, 100-, 200-, 20- and 40-day moving averages. Conversely, initial support will serve at $10.03, then $10.00, $9.97 and $9.86 ¼.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 7 3/4 cents to $5.75, near the daily high and scored a bullish outside day up. December HRW wheat rose 10 1/2 cents to $5.58 1/4, near the daily high. December spring wheat futures rose 1 3/4 cents to $6.51 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering. The steep sell off in the corn futures market that has at least temporarily stabilized was also friendly for the wheat markets.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales for the week ended July 3 of 567,800 MT for 2025-26, which was within the range of market expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said wheat conditions in Canada “are a concern, with parts of the prairies losing yield potential because of dryness. U.S. wheat production seems poised to do well in the Midwest and northern Plains, but it has been a tough year in the central Plains and dryland areas of the Pacific Northwest.” Meantime, wet weather is expected across many Russian spring wheat areas, while parts of Europe “continue to limp along with some dryness issues in the west and southeast, hurting production of some winter grain and threatening unirrigated spring cereals in a few areas,” said the forecaster.
Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report for July, which is expected to show little to no change in U.S. and world supplies.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the SRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.77 3/4 and then at $5.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.61 1/4 and then at the June low of $5.56 3/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.86. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.38 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.59 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.73 1/4. First support is seen at $5.38 1/2 and then at $5.30.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 5 points to 67.73 cents, and closed nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures edged modestly lower with firmer equities negating pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar and crude oil weakness. The dollar has risen as of late, with signs of a strength in the U.S. labor market lending support today. On the converse, it was fodder for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at current levels.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly upland cotton sales of 75,100 RB for the week ended July 3, which were up notably from the previous week and 55% from the four-week average. Increases were reported for Vietnam, Pakistan, India and Turkey. Exports for the week totaled 240,900 RB, down 6% from the previous week but up 9% from the five-week average. Vietnam, Turkey and Bangladesh were the primary destinations.
Tomorrow, USDA will release its July supply and demand estimates. Analysts are expecting production at 14.21 million bales and ending stocks of 4.43 million bales, which would both be up slightly from June.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures continues to be limited by the 20-, 40-, 10- and 100-day moving averages, layered from 67.88 cents to 68.53 cents, while initial support held at 67.28 cents. Bulls will continue to look toward taking out the June 27 high of 69.52 cents, while bears will work towards securing a close below the June 23 low of 66.27 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.