Advice Alert: Cotton producers: Advance 2025-crop sales... Nearby cotton futures pushed above our 65-cent target in trade earlier today. We advise cotton producers to sell another 5% of production, bringing total sales to 20%. Recent increases in China demand and a potential cut to USDA’s 2025 crop estimate have us exercising patience for our next sale, but we have a preliminary target of 70 cents.
Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.46 3/4, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw fresh technical buying today as prices appear to be trending toward the upper portion of a well-defined trading range. Bulls have technical momentum on their side after this week’s decent price gains.
Weekly U.S. ethanol production during the week ended Jan. 2 averaged 1.098 million barrels, down 2.0% from the previous week and 0.4% from year-ago. Ethanol stocks totaled 23.652 million barrels, the highest since Aug. 1, and up 3.1% from last week but down 2.1% from year-ago.
World Weather Inc. today said the driest areas in northeastern Brazil will see a drier weather pattern through the next 10 days and the occasional rounds of rain expected will be important in preventing the soil from quickly drying out again. Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur elsewhere in Brazil and Paraguay during the next two weeks keeping soil moisture favorable for crop development while fieldwork is slowed. In Argentina, beneficial rain fell on some of the driest areas in west-central and southwestern Argentina Tuesday and at least temporary improvements in crop and soil conditions resulted, while rain also fell on some other southern and central Argentina locations. Stress to crops will increase through this weekend in parts of west-central into southern Argentina, where rain should not be great enough to prevent continued drying of the soil, but with serious stress to crops likely in some areas from central and southern San Luis and southwestern Cordoba to La Pampa.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the December’s high of $4.53. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.50 and then at $4.53. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.43 3/4 and then at $4.40.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 10 3/4 cents to $10.67 and nearer the daily high. March soybean meal gained $5.90 to $305.40, near the daily high. March soybean oil fell 9 points to 49.31 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures today saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting, with the speculative bean bulls also impressed by the good gains in meal futures today. Good gains in corn and wheat futures today also supported buying interest in beans and meal.
Grain exporter group, Anec, forecasts Brazil’s soybean exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 MMT. Of the total, 77 MMT are estimated to be sent to China. Brazil’s 2025 exports currently total around 109 MMT, slightly below Anec’s forecast of 110 MMT, as rains slowed shipments in December.
World Weather Inc. today said dryness in southern Argentina is a concern and with limited rain and periodic warm conditions expected over the week some yield potential may decline. “Scattered showers from late this week through mid-month will be extremely important in stopping the decline in production potential. Any missed rain will worsen the situation.” Central Argentina should get relief later this week and early in the weekend. Buenos Aires will get some partial relief during mid-week next week and more Jan. 15-16. Brazil crops are rated well and should continue performing favorably because of a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks. A few drier pockets are unlikely to have a big impact on production potential. The northeastern states will be most closely monitored for dryness later this month, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. However, more gains this week would likely negate the price uptrend to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.75 and then at $10.82 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.56 1/2 and then at $10.50.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a downtrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $310.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $295.20. First resistance comes in at $307.50 and then at $310.80. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at last week’s low of $295.20.
Bean oil bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 48.05 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 50.43 cents and then at 51.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 49.04 cents and then at the 48.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 7 1/2 cents to $5.18 and nearer the daily high. March HRW gained 10 cents to $5.31 1/2, near the daily high. March spring wheat futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $5.70 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some more short covering and perceived bargain buying today. Gains in corn and soybeans today also supported buying interest in wheat. Longer-term chart price history dating back over 25 years shows that the $5.00 area in SRW wheat futures is very strong chart support, which is also encouraging the speculative wheat bulls to play the long sides more.
In other news, China’s vice premier has called for efforts to ensure that winter wheat gets through the winter safely and said that, while the planting area remains stable, the condition of seedlings for winter wheat is currently weak in some areas, according to Reuters.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, rain and snow will impact the production region today through Friday and it may generate the best coverage for precipitation since the last weekend in November. However, much more precipitation will be needed to provide a better boost in soil moisture for crop use in the spring. Some livestock stress is likely from the cold rain and snow expected from southeastern Colorado into the northern Texas Panhandle and into southwestern Kansas Friday. Drier and warmer biased conditions are likely to return quickly next week and the limited precipitation bias should resume and last deeply into the latter part of this month.
There are some stronger indications of a generally colder weather pattern in the second half of this month, especially after Jan. 16.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at lower levels. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.25 and then at $5.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.09 1/4 and then at last week’s contract low of $5.01 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.36 1/2 and then at $5.45. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.15 and then at last week’s low of $5.08 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 21 points to 64.85 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw a corrective pullback from this week’s gains. Gains in the grain futures markets today limited selling interest in cotton. Cotton bears are examining futures price action seen on the daily chart the first half of October, as it looks very similar to recent price action: a fledgling uptrend that petered out after three weeks and the market then went on to drop to a new contract low.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in California was welcome and improved topsoil moisture for use in the spring. Greater precipitation will be needed to more significantly raise long term soil moisture, but any and all precipitation is welcome. Water supply should be improved for the San Joaquin Valley following the recent significant precipitation in the Sierra Nevada. Texas cotton areas all need rain to improve soil moisture and water supply for use in 2026. Showers are expected in the Blacklands, Coastal Bend and a few neighboring areas during the latter part of this week, but relief to the west is not likely to be great enough for a lasting change, if there is any change. Georgia, northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southern South Carolina will continue to see well below normal rainfall over the next 10 days.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls are now working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 67.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 63.68 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 65.76 cents and then at 66.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 64.65 cents and then at this week’s low of 64.24 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.